[ARRL-OK] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[Lloyd Colston]

.THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF              
   EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE 
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN 
TO INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA 
.SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE 
TONIGHT.  ELEVATED CAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG COUPLED WITH WET BULB 
ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 10 KFT INDICATES A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH 
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 

.A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  THESE STORMS 
WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX...SPREADING ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS... 
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...WILL BE SOUTH OF A 
BERRYVILLE...MCALESTER LINE WHERE INSTABILITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED. 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY MONDAY EVENING.  
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS 
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME 
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD AHEAD OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY 
EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE 
HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED 
TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.  
MPH...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A BRISTOW...EUFAULA...WHITESBORO LINE.   



SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY. 
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST 
FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. 


-- 


Lloyd Colston		Mayes County CEM
Pryor, OK USA		http://www.geocities.com/mccem
   When Danger comes, it is too late to plan.