[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

Wed, 11 Jun 2003 13:46:38 EDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

1206 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND 
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS..

DAY ONE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST 
AREA.IMPACTS...LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR LARGER...WILL BE THE 
MAIN CONCERN. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THERE 
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TORNADOES. 

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
FORECAST AREA SHOULD LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY...AND PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TONIGHT.  

DISCUSSION...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...GENERATED BY THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT 
AND THIS MORNING...EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND 
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINED IN PLACE SOUTH OF THIS 
BOUNDARY. A DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WAS 
LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH 
LAST NIGHT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME...THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SURFACE AIR WILL 
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY AND WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY AS FAR 
AS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE 
DRY LINE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY 
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. IN PARTICULAR...THE AREA WHERE THESE TWO BOUNDARIES 
INTERSECT WILL BE A FAVORED LOCATION FOR DEVELOPMENT. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB 
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON...AND DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 
LOWER 70S...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO 
REACH 3000 OR MORE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING AS THE 
DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO APPROACHES. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE 
PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE COMBINATION 
OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND ONLY MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TYPICALLY RESULTS 
IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. 
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT FORM THIS 
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO ANOTHER LINE OR LARGE 
CLUSTER BY LATE EVENING AND TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LARGE 
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AFTER DARK. 

PROBABILITY TABLE...VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY JUN 12.PROBABILITY OF 
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THENWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 
PERCENT.PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT 
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. .

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT 
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE 
EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.    

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...NONE IS EXPECTED. 

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