[ARRL-OK] HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

Tue, 10 Jun 2003 14:36:54 EDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND 
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS..

DAY ONE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST 
AREA.IMPACTS...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE 
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. TIMING...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
FORECAST AREA SHOULD LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY...AND PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TONIGHT.  

DISCUSSION...
AT MIDDAY A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO THE 
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE A DRY LINE WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE TEXAS 
PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA WERE WEAKENING. 
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EARLIER STORMS WERE THINNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS 
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THIS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING TO 
PRODUCE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AT UPPER LEVELS...A 
WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST 
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DRY LINE OVER WEST 
TEXAS...SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND LIE ACROSS THE EASTERN 
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO 
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING...AND WILL INTERSECT THE DRY LINE JUST WEST OF 
THE WESTERN BORDER OF OKLAHOMA.  LIFTING AND COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE 
AND ALSO NEAR THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY 
WEAK...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HEAVY RAIN WILL 
ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.    

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY JUN 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THENWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING 
AREA...90 PERCENT.PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.OTHER 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL 
LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING.  .

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 
NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE 
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.   

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...NONE IS EXPECTED.     

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