[ADXA] Solar Cycle 25 Update

[w5zn at w5zn.org]

Pat - Excellent summary. Thanks for preparing.

This is encouraging.

73 Joel W5ZN

On 2023-01-25 21:55, patw5vy at gmail.com wrote:

> This afternoon I watched a YouTube video of a Zoom call that was held 
> last week by the Front Range 6M Group.  Scott McIntosh, PhD, the Deputy 
> Director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), 
> presented an update to his teams assessment of Solar Cycle 25.  He and 
> his colleagues have done extensive research on the Sun's magnetic 
> (Hale) cycle.  By using data mining analysis of spacecraft sensor data 
> collected in previous magnetic cycles, clues emerged that suggest that 
> the time interval between the beginning and end of the magnetic cycle 
> can predict the intensity of the next solar cycle.  They also found 
> indicators that allow very precise determination of the Termination of 
> a solar cycle. The cycle shut down occurs in just one or two rotations 
> of the Sun…28-56 days. Cycle 24 ended in December, 2019.  His 
> projections called for a considerably more energetic Cycle 25 than the 
> traditional International Prediction Panel sponsored by NASA and NOAA.  
> I've attached a graphic showing the IPP's original prediction (blue 
> lines) and the prediction by McIntosh's team (Red).  The NASA/NOAA team 
> has largely based their predictions on analysis of historical 
> performance of past cycles to extrapolate the data for future cycles.  
> Scott Mcintosh was very interested in trying to gain insight into what 
> actually causes the variations.  There are still a lot of unknows about 
> what is going on in the Sun but, all this research should lead to more 
> accurate predictions in the future.
> 
> Frank, W3LPL, was on the call and commented that if Solar Flux was over 
> 200 or so in November, 2023, we could have 6M F2 layer propagation to 
> Europe.  I've made 6M QSOs with South American stations and VK/ZL using 
> a combination of TEP (Trans Equatorial Propagation) and Sporadic E 
> layer prop to link into the TEP on one or both ends.  Folks on the east 
> coast are probably more likely to see this potential November F2 
> opening but it might make to AR??
> 
> Bottom line, at this time it looks like Cycle 25 Maximum will occur in 
> 3rd Quarter 2024 with monthly smoothed SSN approaching 180-200. Should 
> be fun!  Geomagnetic Activity will peak a bit after the SSN peak.  Any 
> of you folks with 200+ on 160M have any observations about how much 
> that increased activity impacts low band propagation?
> 
> 73,
> 
> Pat, W5VY
> 
> Here are some links if you are inclined to want to know more:
> 
> January 2023 Solar Forecast Update - Dr. Scott McIntosh NCAR Deputy 
> Director - Front Range 6M Group Zoom meeting video.
> 
> https://youtu.be/cAJrL9W5w3M
> 
> NASA Solar Cycle 25
> 
> https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/2022/07/27/solar-cycle-25-is-exceeding-predictions-and-showing-why-we-need-the-gdc-mission/
> 
> McIntosh et al Paper on Solar Magnetic Activity and Forecasting Solar 
> Cycles
> 
> https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y/?CJEVENT=12d7ea2df8b311ec8243005c0a82b824&?utm_medium=affiliate
> 
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