This afternoon I watched a YouTube video of a Zoom call that was held last week by the Front Range 6M Group. Scott McIntosh, PhD, the Deputy Director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), presented an update to his teams assessment of Solar Cycle 25. He and his colleagues have done extensive research on the Sun’s magnetic (Hale) cycle. By using data mining analysis of spacecraft sensor data collected in previous magnetic cycles, clues emerged that suggest that the time interval between the beginning and end of the magnetic cycle can predict the intensity of the next solar cycle. They also found indicators that allow very precise determination of the Termination of a solar cycle. The cycle shut down occurs in just one or two rotations of the Sun…28-56 days. Cycle 24 ended in December, 2019. His projections called for a considerably more energetic Cycle 25 than the traditional International Prediction Panel sponsored by NASA and NOAA. I’ve attached a graphic showing the IPP’s original prediction (blue lines) and the prediction by McIntosh’s team (Red). The NASA/NOAA team has largely based their predictions on analysis of historical performance of past cycles to extrapolate the data for future cycles. Scott Mcintosh was very interested in trying to gain insight into what actually causes the variations. There are still a lot of unknows about what is going on in the Sun but, all this research should lead to more accurate predictions in the future.

Frank, W3LPL, was on the call and commented that if Solar Flux was over 200 or so in November, 2023, we could have 6M F2 layer propagation to Europe. I’ve made 6M QSOs with South American stations and VK/ZL using a combination of TEP (Trans Equatorial Propagation) and Sporadic E layer prop to link into the TEP on one or both ends. Folks on the east coast are probably more likely to see this potential November F2 opening but it might make to AR??

Bottom line, at this time it looks like Cycle 25 Maximum will occur in 3^rd Quarter 2024 with monthly smoothed SSN approaching 180-200. Should be fun! Geomagnetic Activity will peak a bit after the SSN peak. Any of you folks with 200+ on 160M have any observations about how much that increased activity impacts low band propagation?

73,

Pat, W5VY

Here are some links if you are inclined to want to know more:

January 2023 Solar Forecast Update – Dr. Scott McIntosh NCAR Deputy Director – Front Range 6M Group Zoom meeting video.

https://youtu.be/cAJrL9W5w3M

NASA Solar Cycle 25

https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/2022/07/27/solar-cycle-25-is-exceeding-predictions-and-showing-why-we-need-the-gdc-mission/

McIntosh et al Paper on Solar Magnetic Activity and Forecasting Solar Cycles

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y/?CJEVENT=12d7ea2df8b311ec8243005c0a82b824&?utm_medium=affiliate