[ADXA] SFL 234 and A CME is coming

Tue Jan 17 11:39:37 EST 2023

A CME IS COMING: Minor G1-class<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g1.jpg> geomagnetic storms are possible on Jan. 19th when a CME<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/14jan23/two_cmes.gif> is expected to graze Earth's magnetic field. The CME was hurled into space on Jan. 14th by a dramatic twisting eruption<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/14jan23/double_m_strip.gif> in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR3182. High latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras when the CME arrives. CME alerts: SMS Text<https://spaceweatheralerts.com/>.

SO. MANY. SUNSPOTS. Yesterday morning in the Netherlands, Jan Koeman looked at the sun through a Mylar-filtered telescope, and this is what he saw:

[https://spaceweather.com/images2023/15jan23/somanyspots_strip.jpg]<https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=191562>

"I can't remember seeing so many sunspots together through the eyepiece of my Celestron C8 in the last 10 years," says Koeman. "Amazing sight! It is winter in the Netherlands, that means plenty clouds and a sun low above the hedge in my backyard. But the sunspots were peeping through the clouds!"

Indeed, there are a lot of sunspots right now. If sunspot production continues apace for the rest of January, the monthly sunspot number will reach a 20-year high. Contrary to predictions<https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/2022/07/27/solar-cycle-25-is-exceeding-predictions-and-showing-why-we-need-the-gdc-mission/>, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be a good one, after all.  Solar flare alerts: SMS Text<https://spaceweatheralerts.com/>.

more images: from Martin Wise<https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=191579> of Trenton, Florida; from Howard Eskildsen<https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=191588> of Ocala, Florida; from Pepe Manteca<https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=191571> of Begues, Catalunya, Spain; from the Association Astronomique de l'Indre<https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=191576> of Le Poinçonnet, Centre-Val de Loire - France; from Dr. J. Wayne Wooten<https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=191590> of Pensacola, Florida
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Solar wind
speed: 461.6 km/sec
density: 8.18 protons/cm3
more data: ACE<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour.gif>, DSCOVR<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0836 UT
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X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C3 1440 UT Jan16
24-hr: C8  0923 UT Jan16
explanation<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> | more data<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux>
Updated: Today at: 2040 UT
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Daily Sun: 16 Jan 23[https://spaceweather.com/images2023/16jan23/hmi200.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/16jan23/hmi1898.gif>
Expand: labels<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/16jan23/hmi1898.gif> | no labels<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/16jan23/hmi4096_blank.jpg>

Sunspot AR3186 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for  X-class<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
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Sunspot number: 177
What is the sunspot number?
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html>Updated 16 Jan 2023

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 16 Jan 2023

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 16.60x1010 W Neutral
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/03/23/what-is-tci/> | more data: gfx<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/15jan23/TCI_Daily_NO_Power_Percentiles.png>, txt<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/15jan23/tci_info.txt>
Updated 15 Jan 2023

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 234 sfu
explanation<https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Educational/2/2/5> | more data<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
Updated 16 Jan 2023
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Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +0.5% Elevated
48-hr change: -0.2%[https://spaceweather.com/cosmicrays/downarrow_orange.png]
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/10/03/cosmic-rays-are-nearing-a-space-age-maximum/> | more data<https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>
Updated 16 Jan 2023 @ 0700 UT

[https://spaceweather.com/images2022/16oct22/oulu2.jpg]<https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>

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Current Auroral Oval:

[https://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg]<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg>

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
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Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3.33  quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5.00 storm
explanation<https://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/kp.html> | more data
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index>
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Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.64 nT
Bz: 0.60 nT north
more data: ACE<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-24-hour.gif>, DSCOVR<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0836 UT
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Coronal Holes: 16 Jan 23

[https://spaceweather.com/images2023/16jan23/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/16jan23/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg>
There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA

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Noctilucent Clouds
The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected the first electric-blue puffs over Antarctica on Dec. 1st.

[https://spaceweather.com/DAISY_PICS/daisy_thumb.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/DAISY_PICS/current_daisy.png>

Switch view:Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, Polar

Updated Jan16
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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
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Updated at: 2023 Jan 15 2200 UTC

FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
55 %
55 %
CLASS X
15 %
15 %

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Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, minor storm<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, severe storm<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>

Updated at: 2023 Jan 15 2200 UTC
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Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
01 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %

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High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
20 %
20 %
SEVERE
20 %
20 %

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GUD DX

73,

Bill Priakos – W5SJ
19417 Gulf Boulevard
Indian Shores, FL 33785
479.461.8368
[palm tree icon]

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