[ADXA] Sunspot counts hit a 9 year high

Fri Feb 3 11:36:29 EST 2023

Good news…come on Bouvet 😊

Bill Priakos – W5SJ
10 Free Ferry Heights
Fort Smith, AR 72903
479.461.8368
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SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 9-YEAR HIGH: In a continued sign of strength for Solar Cycle 25, sunspot counts just hit a 9-year high. This plot from NOAA shows how the monthly sunspot number skyrocketed in January 2023:

[https://spaceweather.com/images2023/02feb23/sunspotcounts_9yr_strip.jpg]<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/02feb23/sunspotcounts_9yr.jpg>

The monthly sunspot number of 144 in January 2023 was only percentage points away from topping the previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, which peaked in Feb. 2014 with a monthly value of 146.

Originally, forecasters thought<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update?fbclid=IwAR0II6o75ehEkIfRW-QP4F4w1ljXx89KsQrKdhEGeJvnIm6GviIFiEjdH34> Solar Cycle 25 would be about the same as Solar Cycle 24, one of the weakest solar cycles in a century. Current trends suggest Solar Cycle 25 will surpass that low threshold, at least. Solar Maximum is not expected until 2024 or 2025, so it has plenty of time to strengthen further, bringing X-flares, geomagnetic storms and auroras. You can follow the progression here<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>.
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Solar wind
speed: 466.0 km/sec
density: 3.95 protons/cm3
more data: ACE<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour.gif>, DSCOVR<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0700 UT
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X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1412 UT Feb02
24-hr: C5  2248 UT Feb01
explanation<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> | more data<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux>
Updated: Today at: 1905 UT
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Daily Sun: 02 Feb 23[https://spaceweather.com/images2023/02feb23/hmi200.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/02feb23/hmi1898.gif>
Expand: labels<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/02feb23/hmi1898.gif> | no labels<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/02feb23/hmi4096_blank.jpg>

Sunspot AR3207 is growing but it does not yet pose a threat for strong flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
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Sunspot number: 89
What is the sunspot number?
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html>Updated 02 Feb 2023

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2023 total: 0 days (0%)
2022 total: 1 day (<1%)
2021 total: 64 days (18%)
2020 total: 208 days (57%)
2019 total: 281 days (77%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 02 Feb 2023

Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 18.74x1010 W Warm
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)
explanation<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/03/23/what-is-tci/> | more data: gfx<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/01feb23/TCI_Daily_NO_Power_Percentiles.png>, txt<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/01feb23/tci_info.txt>
Updated 01 Feb 2023

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 134 sfu
explanation<https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Educational/2/2/5> | more data<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>
Updated 02 Feb 2023
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Cosmic Rays Solar Cycle 25 is beginning, and this is reflected in the number of cosmic rays entering Earth's atmosphere. Neutron counts from the University of Oulu's Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory show that cosmic rays reaching Earth are slowly declining--a result of the yin-yang relationship between the solar cycle and cosmic rays.

Oulu Neutron Counts
Percentages of the Space Age average:
today: +2.2% Elevated
48-hr change: +0.9%[https://spaceweather.com/cosmicrays/uparrow_orange.png]
Max: +11.7% Very High (12/2009)
Min: -32.1% Very Low (06/1991)
explanation<https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/10/03/cosmic-rays-are-nearing-a-space-age-maximum/> | more data<https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>
Updated 02 Feb 2023 @ 0700 UT

[https://spaceweather.com/images2022/16oct22/oulu2.jpg]<https://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/>

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Current Auroral Oval:

[https://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg]<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.jpg>

Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/Ovation
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Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0.33  quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3.67 quiet
explanation<https://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/kp.html> | more data
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index>
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Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.93 nT
Bz: -2.44 nT south
more data: ACE<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-24-hour.gif>, DSCOVR<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind>
Updated: Today at 0701 UT
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Coronal Holes: 02 Feb 23

[https://spaceweather.com/images2023/02feb23/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/02feb23/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg>
There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA

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Noctilucent Clouds
The southern hemisphere season for noctilucent clouds has begun. NASA's AIM spacecraft detected the first electric-blue puffs over Antarctica on Dec. 1st.

[https://spaceweather.com/DAISY_PICS/daisy_thumb.gif]<https://spaceweather.com/DAISY_PICS/current_daisy.png>

Switch view:Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, Polar

Updated Feb01
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SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
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Updated at: 2023 Feb 01 2200 UTC

FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
10 %
10 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %

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Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, minor storm<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, severe storm<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>

Updated at: 2023 Feb 01 2200 UTC
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Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
30 %
10 %
MINOR
10 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %

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High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
15 %
15 %
MINOR
30 %
20 %
SEVERE
40 %
10 %

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SpaceWeather.com
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