[ADXA] New Member Standings info for Larry, AC5AV

[w5zn at w5zn.org]

Congrats there BIG GUN Larry !!!!!! 

ZN 

On 2020-11-23 22:40, patw5vy at gmail.com wrote:

> Larry, AC5AV, has provided updated DXCC standings info.  He has bumped his Mixed total up over 40 new entites to 150.  Larry also added a good number of new band multipliers on 17, 15, 12 and 10M.  Great progress Larry. 
> 
> The 10.7cm Solar Flux is currently 96 with prediction to make it to 100 over the next couple of days.  It is still very early in Cycle 25 but it's nice to see something over 70!.  If you haven't heard about the "newest" prediction of Solar Activity during Cycle 25 take a look at the article in the ARRL Letter from Nov 19th….. http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2020-11-19#toc04  Follow the link to the "Academic Paper Predicts….".  I've downloaded the research paper and I have been trying to wrap my head around the methods employed to arrive at the new prediction.  I think you have to be a PhD. Solar Physicist to do that.  But, from the high level explanation (hand waving!) it appears that Scott McIntosh, PhD, and team have developed time series analysis tools to accurately identify the "termination event" that marks the end of a 11 year sunspot cycle which are based on solar magnetic activity bands and the 22 year Hale Cycle. The Sun's magnetic poles flip every 22 years.   By
crunching data from Solar Cycles from 1749 to present they were able to determine the time separation between the Termination events and found that the "separation" is a predictor of the "strength" of the next cycle.  The model has very good correlation with previous cycles.  The McIntosh Team is predicting max sunspot numbers of around 200 for Cycle 25.  Most "mainstream" predictions are in the maximum of 135 range…a repeat of Cycle 24.  
> 
> I was only about ten years old when Cycle 19 peaked at over 250.  We've all heard the stories!  
> 
> 73, 
> 
> Pat, W5VY 
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