[ADXA] New Member Standings info for Larry, AC5AV

[patw5vy at gmail.com]

Larry, AC5AV, has provided updated DXCC standings info.  He has bumped his
Mixed total up over 40 new entites to 150.  Larry also added a good number
of new band multipliers on 17, 15, 12 and 10M.  Great progress Larry.

 

The 10.7cm Solar Flux is currently 96 with prediction to make it to 100 over
the next couple of days.  It is still very early in Cycle 25 but it's nice
to see something over 70!.  If you haven't heard about the "newest"
prediction of Solar Activity during Cycle 25 take a look at the article in
the ARRL Letter from Nov 19th...
http://www.arrl.org/arrlletter?issue=2020-11-19#toc04  Follow the link to
the "Academic Paper Predicts..".  I've downloaded the research paper and I
have been trying to wrap my head around the methods employed to arrive at
the new prediction.  I think you have to be a PhD. Solar Physicist to do
that.  But, from the high level explanation (hand waving!) it appears that
Scott McIntosh, PhD, and team have developed time series analysis tools to
accurately identify the "termination event" that marks the end of a 11 year
sunspot cycle which are based on solar magnetic activity bands and the 22
year Hale Cycle. The Sun's magnetic poles flip every 22 years.   By
crunching data from Solar Cycles from 1749 to present they were able to
determine the time separation between the Termination events and found that
the "separation" is a predictor of the "strength" of the next cycle.  The
model has very good correlation with previous cycles.  The McIntosh Team is
predicting max sunspot numbers of around 200 for Cycle 25.  Most
"mainstream" predictions are in the maximum of 135 range.a repeat of Cycle
24.  

 

I was only about ten years old when Cycle 19 peaked at over 250.  We've all
heard the stories!  

 

73,

Pat, W5VY

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