[160m] Propagation Outlook #2001-1A Published 2:00 PM EST 01/09/02

[KN4LF, Thomas Giella]

Outlook #2001-1A Published 2:00 PM EST 01/09/02

BANG! Per our Outlook #2002-1 Published 11:00 PM EST 01/04/02, a large size
approximate M 9.5 solar flare occurred today at 1801 UTC and originated from
sunspot group #9773. How did I know it occurred? I was listening to a SW
broadcast station again on 13 meters, when the station abruptly weakened and
nearly disappeared! This large M class solar flare is probably more earth
directed then the last one and doesn't bode well for MW propagation in the
next few days.

My forecast for the proton flux level and geomagnetic activity following the
M 9.5 class solar flare is: elevated Kp indicies of 4-5 and also an elevated
proton flux level of at least 10 +1/2. What does this mean? More D layer
absorption and some high latitude propagation path blocking during the next
few days, on 160 meters and even more so on the AM broadcast band.

73,
Thomas Giella, KN4LF

Plant City, FL
Grid Square- EL88wx
CQ Zone 5
ITU Zone 8

KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources And More:
http://www.kn4lf.com

Florida Meteorological & Climatic Institute:
http://64.176.157.9/sub/fmci.htm

Giella Website Designs:
http://www.giellawoodsignandwebsitedesigns.com


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