[W8MWA] Sunday Storm Forecast—Informal Only for Now

[Jeffrey Fritz]

The following may be of interest to some of us. For those who find
weather to be interesting, please read on...

I'm not a weather guy and sometimes the weather information sent to me from
the NWS goes right over my head!

Case in point: The Pittsburgh NWS has been saying this morning that we have
a potential for severe weather this afternoon (Sunday, 5 May 2024.) In an
update earlier this morning they said:

"*We may see strong storms pop up this afternoon. The Marginal Threat Level
remains over the area. Stay tuned for updates on storms that may begin
popping this afternoon*"

There are no warnings or watches, so I just noted this. However, a few
moments ago, the NWS said:

*"Dry air is racing through western Ohio. Drier air and decrease in clouds
will build into our region over the next few hours."*

It seemed to me that the NWS was contradicting itself with a report of a
severe storm potential on one hand, and dry air and a decrease in clouds on
the other. After all, doesn't the atmosphere need moisture and clouds to
create storms?

I was taught a long time ago that if I don't understand something, I should
ask. So I sent the following question to the meteorologists at the NWS:

*"Does the mention of dry air moving into our area decrease or remove the
potential for severe storms developing this afternoon?*"

They responded back:

*"It increases the potential...dry air cools the atmosphere aloft and helps
promote instability. That instability, under the right conditions, can be a
contributor to creating severe storms. So that is what we are watching for
this afternoon, Jeff.*"

It sounds contradictory, but dry air actually increases the storm
potential. Well, live and learn!

Jeff, WB1AAL
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