[W1SMH] Fwd: Situational Awareness Statement #2 - Long Duration Winter Storm Sunday through Tuesday

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-------- Original message --------From: "Phillips, Samantha (CDA)" <samantha.phillips at state.ma.us> Date: 11/30/19  6:12 PM  (GMT-05:00) To: Ray Cord 2 <raycord at aol.com> Subject: Situational Awareness Statement #2 - Long Duration Winter Storm Sunday through Tuesday 
			Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
		


MASSACHUSETTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS STATEMENT #2
Date: November 30, 2019
Time: 6:00 PM
 
Re: Long Duration Winter Storm Sunday through Tuesday
 
Updates are highlighted in blue.
 
Situation Overview
The National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting a high impact winter storm beginning Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. Sunday
 into early Monday the snow will begin in western MA between noon and 1 PM; central MA between 1- 3 PM; and eastern MA between 3- 5 PM. Snow will become heavy at times (1"/hour) shortly after onset and will continue in the late afternoon and evening hours. As
 warmer air intrudes aloft, precipitation changes to sleet, then to a sleet/snow mix in northern MA, and to plain rain in southeast MA for the overnight hours. By daybreak Monday, snow/sleet accumulations of 6-8" possible in western and northern MA with approximately
 4-6" in Springfield and interior Essex County, with 2-5" elsewhere, except less than an inch on Cape Cod/Islands and near the immediate coast in southeast MA.  
 
Early in the morning on Monday, rain will be occurring in much of eastern MA, with a mixed bag elsewhere.  However, everything will change back to snow
 from west to east. The changeover will reach as far east as northeast MA, and central MA by about 3 PM.  It will reach eastern MA (except Cape Cod/Islands) by between 7 PM and 11 PM Monday. The snow could continue into early Tuesday morning.  Less snow is
 expected than what occurred on the front end Sunday, but there still could be several inches in some locations.  This may be dependent on where localized bands of heavier snow set up. 
 
Storm Total Accumulations
The NWS is expecting a widespread 8 to 10 inches over much of interior MA with as much as a foot possible in the higher Worcester hills and 12 to 17 inches
 in the east slopes of the Berkshires.  Amounts drop off rapidly as one heads southeast, with 3 to 5 inches in Plymouth and less than an inch on Cape Cod and the Islands.
 
Confidence 


Confidence remains highest in the warning areas of western and northern MA, where >6" of snow in a 12 hour period or 8" in a 24 hour period is likely.  
Confidence remains low enough at this point, however, to have continued the Winter Storm Watch for many interior locations.  This is due to not being completely sure of the extent of the warm air intrusion, which could greatly impact
 snowfall totals.  A colder scenario by just a few degrees would mean more snow than currently forecast.  NWS has lower confidence in southeast sections, particularly along the I-95 corridor.  This could be a situation in which there is a sharp snowfall gradient
 within the city of Boston,  with only a slushy inch or two at the immediate coast to warning criteria amounts in western Suffolk County.
​
Potential Hazards and Impacts
 
Heavy Snow


Hazard travel conditions on all surfaces, treated or untreated; avoid travel if possible.
The snow will be very moisture-laden.  This could make for compact snow but it will be heavy to shovel.
 
Light Freezing Rain
Locally hazardous travel conditions on untreated bridges, overpasses, and/or secondary roads. 
 
Wind Gusts


Wind gusts will increase to 25-40 mph along the south coast late Sunday night.
Monday into Tuesday, winds will gust to 35-45 mph along coastal areas, with the highest gusts over Cape Ann, outer Cape Cod, and the coastal waters off eastern MA.
Loose objects may become airborne; isolated tree damage.
 
Storm Surge
Storm surges of up to 2 feet are expected, but due to low astronomical tides, only splashover is expected for east coastal MA, including Cape Cod Bay and
 Nantucket (with northeast winds).  Some pockets of minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out.
Watches, Advisories, and Warnings


Winter Storm Warning continues for Western Hampden, Western Hampshire, all of Franklin, northern Worcester, and far northwest Middlesex Counties in MA.


Winter Storm Watch continues for Hartford and Tolland Counties in northern CT; eastern Hampden, eastern Hampshire, southern Worcester, Norfolk, central and southeast Middlesex, Suffolk
 and Essex Counties in MA.


Gale Watch now in effect for all coastal waters from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon/night.​
 
NWS Graphics
 

 

 

 

 
State Operations
The
 State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) at MEMA Headquarters in Framingham is currently operating at Level 1 (Steady State Monitoring). In response to the approaching winter storm, the SEOC will activate at 4 PM on Sunday to Level 2 (Partial Activation).
 The following state agencies will be activated at the SEOC. 


MA Department of Public Utilities (ESF 12)
MA State Police  (ESF 13)
MA Department of Transportation (ESF 1)
MA Department of Conservation and Recreation (ESF 3)
MEMA will continue to monitor the winter storm event as it approaches the area. MEMA
 will distribute another SAS Sunday morning. 
 
Utilities and Winter Storm Preparation
The following is a brief summary of the Electric Distribution Companies plans and preparations for the approaching winter storm:
 
Eversource:


Doubling its staffing tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon in the MetroWest and Western MA areas;
Declaring a Type 4 ERP as of 5am on Monday;
Opening the Springfield and Southboro EOCs at that time; 
As of 3pm today, secured approximately 45 external crews;
As a precautionary measure, two of the crews will arrive in Martha’s Vineyard tomorrow; and
First Incident Management Team call at 11am tomorrow and will continue to monitor the forecast and adjust plans as needed.    
 
National Grid:


Classified event as a Type 4;
Planning to open the Worcester and North Andover Storm rooms Sunday afternoon;
Will adjust plan for opening additional storm rooms in other areas as the forecast is refined;
Working to secure additional resources; and
Next scheduled storm call at 4:30 pm today (Saturday).
 
Unitil:


Held a storm call this morning with weather forecaster;
The Company’s Fitchburg-area service territory is forecasted to receive approximately 10-15” of normal/wet snow for the period starting Sunday evening through Tuesday;
Secured additional resources in anticipation of this event;
Scheduled another call with weather forecaster tomorrow afternoon; and
Planning to open System EOC Monday morning through the duration of the event.
 
Preparedness and Safety Information


Safety and preparedness tips for nor’easters and coastal storms:
http://www.mass.gov/index.php/service-details/noreaster-coastal-storm-safety-tips
Power outage preparedness and safety information:
http://www.mass.gov/index.php/service-details/power-outage-safety-tips


Flood safety tips:
http://www.mass.gov/index.php/service-details/flood-safety-tips
 
Stay Informed


For additional information and updated forecasts, see www.weather.gov/boston (National Weather
 Service Norton) and www.weather.gov/albany (National Weather Service Albany)
For winter storm safety tips visit https://www.mass.gov/info-details/winter-storm-safety-tips
Utilize MEMA’s real-time power outage viewer to stay informed about current power outages in your community and region, and across the state, including information from utility companies
 about restoration times: http://mema.mapsonline.net/public.html
 
Online Resources
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency at www.mass.gov/mema
MEMA's Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/MassachusettsEMA
MEMA Twitter: @MassEMA
Federal Emergency Management Agency at www.fema.gov
National Weather Service Boston/ Norton, MA  at www.weather.gov/boston
National Weather Service/Albany, NY at www.weather.gov/albany
National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center:  www.spc.noaa.gov/
Northeast River Forecast Center: www.weather.gov/nerfc/
National Hurricane Center: www.nhc.noaa.gov
Mass211 at www.mass211.org
 



			
		
		
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