[W1SMH] Fwd: Situational Awareness Statement #11: Tropical Storm Jose

Wed Sep 20 13:26:19 EDT 2017

Ray Cord

On Wednesday, September 20, 2017, Russas, Michael (CDA) (CDA) (CDA) (CDA) (CDA) (CDA) (CDA) (CDA) <Michael.Russas at MassMail.State.MA.US> wrote:

MASSACHUSETTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS STATEMENT

Situational Awareness Statement #11: Tropical Storm Jose
Date: 9/20/2017
Time: 9:10 AM

Situation

Jose has been downgraded to a tropical storm overnight. As of 5:00 AM today, the storm was located 165 miles south of Nantucket, MA, moving northeast at 8 mph. This general motion, with a decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through tonight. The storm is expected to continue pushing further east away from the coast and to pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Generally, the Cape and Islands, and southeastern MA, will experience conditions similar to a strong nor'easter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles from the center of Jose. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 MPH with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore today. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the coast over the next several days, with total rain accumulations of up to 3 to 5 inches expected over Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard. Swells generated by Jose are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days along much of the U.S. east coast.

Hazards Affecting Land / Marine

Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area later this morning. Gusts of 50-60 MPH are forecast for the Cape and Islands. Gusts of 30-45 MPH are forecast elsewhere in eastern and southeastern Massachusetts. The wind is expected to cause scattered downed trees and wires and associated power outages, particularly on the Cape and Islands.

Surf: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. Current modeling suggests that Jose may linger well offshore of New England later in the week. If this occurs, the threat of rip currents will be prolonged, likely lasting through the upcoming weekend and perhaps even into early next week.

Beach Erosion: Severe beach erosion is expected along parts of south and east facing beaches on the Cape and Islands and in eastern Massachusetts. Current modeling suggests that Jose may linger well offshore of New England later in the week. If this occurs, the threat of beach erosion will be prolonged, likely lasting through the upcoming weekend and perhaps even into early next week.

Storm Surge: Storm surge of 1' to 2', causing minor coastal flooding and pockets of moderate flooding, is expected during high tide cycles on Wednesday and Thursday.

Rainfall: Total rain accumulations of 3-5 inches are expected on the Cape and Islands, with 1" to 3" elsewhere in southeastern MA. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas. Particularly on Cape Cod and Nantucket, continued bands of heavy rain could lead to localized flash flooding, exacerbated by the inability of each high tide cycle to fully drain.

Power Outages: Scattered power outages and tree damage are likely over the Cape and Islands and may extend to the northeast, east and southeast portions of the state.

Transportation Impacts:

The Steamship Authority reports that all ferry service for Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket will operate on a trip-by-trip basis Wednesday. Based on the current forecast, the Steamship Authority is diverting all trips to and from Oak Bluffs to Vineyard Haven through Thursday.

Watches and Warnings
Coastal Flood Advisory
Issued: September 20 at 5:10AM EDT
Expiring: September 21 at 3:00PM EDT<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__alerts.weather.gov_cap_wwacapget.php-3Fx-3DMA12586886DD78.CoastalFloodAdvisory.12586897A270MA.BOXCFWBOX.66cb4ff1921968550609d0e9ac22c583&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=1NDqmFoP0n7uuxchBwq1FFIDzTebSSZEs7ykZlhd830&e= >

Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual

Areas affected:Eastern Plymouth

High Surf Advisory
Issued: September 20 at 5:10AM EDT
Expiring: September 22 at 8:00AM EDT<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__alerts.weather.gov_cap_wwacapget.php-3Fx-3DMA12586886DD78.HighSurfAdvisory.125868A5D340MA.BOXCFWBOX.e7a97272345df2b7bc6faaa407e96257&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=hlfEIbJBEhM-aOLsS0CR9fcsntn7TqYLkqu1453-yys&e= >

Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual

Areas affected:Eastern Essex; Southern Bristol

High Surf Advisory
Issued: September 20 at 5:10AM EDT
Expiring: September 22 at 8:00AM EDT<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__alerts.weather.gov_cap_wwacapget.php-3Fx-3DMA12586886DD78.HighSurfAdvisory.125868A5D340MA.BOXCFWBOX.839907c01f3c1460a29da864195bfa9d&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=TuDMLhHdJ72CDkYwLoKC01OX4tdyiYRidiqePiTIPoc&e= >

Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual

Areas affected:Eastern Plymouth

Wind Advisory
Issued: September 20 at 5:05AM EDT
Expiring: September 21 at 6:00PM EDT<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__alerts.weather.gov_cap_wwacapget.php-3Fx-3DMA12586886DB84.WindAdvisory.1258689817A0MA.BOXNPWBOX.b5216e8d0bcf1ef92fca4264c64379d5&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=QKVnSBpsbKtNN-VzfCjj5tCebNWMUWTXaJU1-Lij1B4&e= >

Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual

Areas affected:Eastern Essex; Eastern Norfolk; Eastern Plymouth; Northern Bristol; Southeast Middlesex; Southern Bristol; Southern Plymouth; Suffolk; Western Essex; Western Norfolk; Western Plymouth

Flash Flood Watch
Issued: September 20 at 5:03AM EDT
Expiring: September 21 at 7:00AM EDT<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__alerts.weather.gov_cap_wwacapget.php-3Fx-3DMA12586886DABC.FlashFloodWatch.1258689669F0MA.BOXFFABOX.c6dbddc5eb7e8813ee5601bd6be430e5&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=AQh3k3TnrLBO8EWe3tDwfutjFuf0fvTI6QD8OYlv6Ms&e= >

Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual

Areas affected:Barnstable; Nantucket

Tropical Storm Warning
Issued: September 20 at 4:46AM EDT
Expiring: until further notice<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__alerts.weather.gov_cap_wwacapget.php-3Fx-3DMA12586886C478.TropicalStormWarning.125868881210MA.BOXTCVBOX.fae1771925f4130abcc38925360c7c4c&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=yAeLPsElaaQL0FZ7PKLLtM12IEh9V1ohfSLVKZMTzp0&e= >

Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual

Areas affected:Barnstable

Tropical Storm Warning
Issued: September 20 at 4:46AM EDT
Expiring: until further notice<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__alerts.weather.gov_cap_wwacapget.php-3Fx-3DMA12586886C478.TropicalStormWarning.125868881210MA.BOXTCVBOX.cfd016704679488584a59c17ea1982d2&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=XW6c2h0C3IVvl7X5nGvuJxp1KktduOff80MCk7Hb2KM&e= >

Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual

Areas affected:Dukes

Tropical Storm Warning
Issued: September 20 at 4:46AM EDT
Expiring: until further notice<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__alerts.weather.gov_cap_wwacapget.php-3Fx-3DMA12586886C478.TropicalStormWarning.125868881210MA.BOXTCVBOX.7e55261fdca1ac99638a3db6a16ba4bd&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=qq7iyQtoBdnYRont5tJhD5t7O07vVoboVdqR-hRQuq4&e= >

Urgency: Expected
Status: Actual

Areas affected:Nantucket

Storm Graphics

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Jose

[cone graphic]

Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds

[time of arrival graphic]

Rainfall Potential

[cid:image007.jpg at 01D331EF.D0015790]

Potential Wind Gusts

[cid:image008.jpg at 01D331EF.D0015790]

MEMA Operations

The State Emergency Operations Center is currently activated at Level II (Partial Activation). As of 7:00 AM today, the following agencies were present in the SEOC in addition to MEMA staff:

* ESF-1 (Transportation): MassDOT

* ESF-2 (Communications): MEMA

* ESF-3 (Public Works): DCR

* ESF-4 (Firefighting): DFS

* ESF-6 (Mass Care): ARC

* ESF-8 (Public Health): MDPH

* ESF-10 (Environmental Protection): CZM, DEP

* ESF-12 (Energy): DPU, Eversource, National Grid

* ESF-13 (Law Enforcement): MSP

* ESF-16 (Military Support): MANG

MEMA's Region II office in Bridgewater activated its Regional EOC at 7:00 AM today.

The Barnstable County Multi-Agency Coordination Center (MACC) activated at 8:00 AM today. MEMA has assigned a liaison to the MACC.

MEMA will issue additional Situational Awareness Statements through the day today (Wednesday).

Communities wishing to share information or request assistance should do so by either utilizing WebEOC or by contacting the SEOC or their MEMA Regional office. The SEOC can be reached through MEMA's 24/7 dispatch center at 508-820-2000.

Stay Informed:
For additional information and updated forecasts, see www.weather.gov/boston<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.weather.gov_boston&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=_KPWPzH5VzXstlnXqJ2bJjAP9iJBZsYpqTUv_kzLeZ8&e= > (National Weather Service Taunton) and www.weather.gov/albany<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.weather.gov_albany&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=BaKOVoLoTskPrB2SeMilA1X-4PAF521TcHVJIJxa3Ws&e= > (National Weather Service Albany)

Utilize Massachusetts Alerts to receive emergency notifications and information from the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service. Massachusetts Alerts is a free app that is available for Android and iPhones. To learn more about Massachusetts Alerts, and for information on how to download the free app onto your smartphone, visit: www.mass.gov/mema/mobileapp<http://www.mass.gov/mema/mobileapp>.

Utilize MEMA's real-time power outage viewer to stay informed about current power outages in your community and region, and across the state, including information from utility companies about restoration times: https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__mema.mapsonline.net_public.html&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=BeUiEx5QdUIrkFNK0PZ6PU_kshGAI-BRuUzD_6-tCLA&e= 

Online Resources:
For additional information and resources, visit:
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency at www.mass.gov/mema<http://www.mass.gov/mema>
MEMA's Facebook page: https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.facebook.com_MassachusettsEMA&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=ZRR-rPMee_R6bRb2XS29lhZXUkpIBjRRgjjct6FlT_k&e= 
MEMA Twitter: @MassEMA<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__twitter.com_massema&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=7b7lFKaqLGL9PdaJP0Fw_Ngn0nujZn8l4RLkX7zsaVE&e= >
Federal Emergency Management Agency at www.fema.gov<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.fema.gov&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=qiGQCKsXsIIwiElXFauKyx0Z76tgbhgd8szPK-OBn64&e= >
National Weather Service/Taunton at www.weather.gov/boston<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.weather.gov_boston&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=_KPWPzH5VzXstlnXqJ2bJjAP9iJBZsYpqTUv_kzLeZ8&e= >
National Weather Service/Albany, NY at www.weather.gov/albany<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.weather.gov_albany&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=BaKOVoLoTskPrB2SeMilA1X-4PAF521TcHVJIJxa3Ws&e= >
National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.nhc.noaa.gov&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=G0U_1_L1bcualvUI2a4UH9o5GCrgAoBWpH1ky5MY0LY&e= >
National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center: https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov_&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=P6_ZJvTgjdfEDrVV-DfqCJ1VjnoWNJLCWsWqty5BQ_E&e= 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center: https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.spc.noaa.gov_&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=JMFfuRoRxfMeWFwyxLxFZ6m4isBieJef7JtXDNTAsOQ&e= 
Northeast River Forecast Center: https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.weather.gov_nerfc_&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=UYWEyukzCOe9LF3dpO0IGgDQHBfIEKS89oWzk-OgJf4&e= 
Mass211 at www.mass211.org<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.mass211.org&d=DwIFAg&c=lDF7oMaPKXpkYvev9V-fVahWL0QWnGCCAfCDz1Bns_w&r=JK7lxNSpWXPsJK8-PZb_TZDQn_KcxizkGDMIKgmuGMM&m=iqwnNxdcwXZXu1EIFQT_wAdlBg_IWiK17dsPNcyGcK0&s=oK7eg2_HnuKtQtoaExLzwvR_QNQVGsX5l2XqECxwrVE&e= >

Michael E. Russas, MEP
Response and Field Services Section Chief
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency
508-820-2018 (Office)
508-820-2000 (24/7 Communications Ctr.)

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