[W1SMH] Fwd: Situational Awareness Statement #2: Potentially Major and Destructive Winter Storm/Blizzard to Impact the State

[Ray Cord via W1SMH]

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On Sunday, January 25, 2015, MEMA State Control (CDA) <memastatecontrol at massmail.state.ma.us> wrote:

  

 

DATE: January 25, 2015

TIME: 6:00 PM

 

SUBJECT: Potentially Major and Destructive Winter Storm/Blizzard to Impact the State

 

Situation

Massachusetts will experience a severe and potentially historic storm Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning, complete with snow measured in feet, damaging winds, and serious coastal flooding.  A corridor of heavy, wet snow is expected in southeast MA (east of I-95) where temperatures will near 32 degrees, making for heavy wet snow. Elsewhere, colder temperatures (teens and 20’s) will make for fluffier snow. Snowfall totals are expected to reach over 20 inches across much of the Commonwealth, with pockets of 30+ inches possible.  The Cape and Martha’s Vineyard will see 12+ inches. This storm could come close to rivaling the records for Boston (27.6” for the 2003 President’s Day storm) and Worcester (32.1” for the Dec. 11-12, 1992 storm).

 

The storm will bring potentially damaging winds. The Cape and Martha’s Vineyard may see wind gusts up to 75 mph, with hurricane force winds over the waters.  Winds will gust from 50-60 mph in the Boston – Providence corridor, and 30-40 mph in central and western MA. Strong winds and blizzard conditions will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow, bring near zero visibility. 

 

The heavy snow and strong winds likely will result in downed tree limbs, trees, and utility poles/wires. Widespread power outages, potentially lasting multiple days, are possible with this storm.  Travel may become impossible and life threatening across the state. 

 

Watches and Warnings

 

Blizzard Warning: S. Worcester, Essex, Middlesex (except northwest Middlesex), Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth counties from 7:00 p.m. Monday through 1:00 a.m. Wednesday, and for Barnstable and Dukes counties from 7:00 p.m. Monday through noon Tuesday.

Winter Storm Warning: Berkshire, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, north and central Worcester and northwest Middlesex counties from 7:00 p.m. Monday through 1:00 a.m. Wednesday.

Winter Storm Watch: Nantucket county from 7:00 p.m. Monday through 6:00 p.m. Wednesday.

High Wind Warning: Nantucket county 7:00 p.m. Monday through 1:00 a.m. Wednesday.

Hurricane Force Wind Warning: for all waters except Boston Harbor, Mass Bay, Narragansett Bay and Block Island Sound from 1:00 a.m. through midnight Tuesday.

Coastal Flood Warning: All of eastern Massachusetts coastline including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket from 3:00 a.m. through 7:00 a.m. Tuesday.

Coastal Flood Watch: All of eastern Massachusetts coastline including Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket from 3:00 p.m. through 7:00 p.m. Tuesday.

 

Timing

Light snow will impact the late afternoon commute on Monday with 1-2” in Boston/Worcester/Springfield.  A forecasted 12-18” will fall in a 9-hour period from 1AM to 10AM Tuesday, falling at a rate of 2 or more inches per hour.  Thunderstorms will also be occurring in this time window.  Snow, with varying intensities will continue through Tuesday night, likely last until daybreak Wednesday morning, potentially bringing up to an additional 10 inches of snow in areas.  

 

Potential Impacts

Heavy Snowfall:  Snowfall amounts 2-3ft are possible in Eastern and Central Massachusetts, with more than a foot of snow on the Cape and Martha’s Vineyard.

 

Damaging Winds: Strong and damaging winds, possibly approaching hurricane force; 75mph on the Cape and Islands, 50-60mph in Boston, and 30-40 mph in central and western MA.

 

Coastal Flooding: Moderate flooding and significant beach erosion is likely to occur with pockets of major flooding on northeast-facing shorelines. A 3 – 3 ½ foot storm surge and 20 – 25 foot offshore wave activity is expected. The greatest impact will be during the Tuesday morning high tide (4-5 AM), with anticipated flooding of shoreline roads, damage to vulnerable structures and significant beach erosion.  The Tuesday afternoon high tide, while not as high as the morning high tide, is also expected to bring moderate flooding and beach erosion.

 

Wind Chills: 0 to -5 degrees in western/central MA throughout the storm.

 

Power Outages: Widespread power outages, potentially lasting multiple days, are possible with this storm.

 

Watches and Warnings:

 



 

Expected Snowfall Totals (excluding Berkshire County):

 



 

 Expected Snowfall Totals (Berkshire County):



 

Coastal Flooding



 

 

MEMA Operations

 

The State Emergency Operations Center is operating at Level 1 (Steady State Monitoring).  MEMA continues to coordinate with NWS and public safety partners and will activate the SEOC to a Level 3 (Full Activation) tomorrow afternoon/evening.  The time of operational activation will be determined tomorrow morning.

 

MEMA is actively planning with our Emergency Support Function (ESF) partners around the following high-priority areas:

 

·         Public information and alerting

·         Support for coastal evacuations

·         Assistance to stranded motorists

·         Debris management

·         Emergency fuel

·         Shelter operations

·         Power outages and support for utility restoration operations

·         Mutual aid 

 

MEMA will host a call with Emergency Management Directors statewide at 10:00 a.m. on Monday.  Additional calls will be scheduled as needed.

 

MEMA will continue to monitor the forecast and will issue additional Situational Awareness Statements as needed.

 

Stay Informed 

 

For additional information and updated forecasts, see www.weather.gov/boston (National Weather Service Taunton) and www.weather.gov/albany (National Weather Service Albany)

 

Utilize Massachusetts Alerts to receive emergency notifications and information from the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service.  Massachusetts Alerts is a free app that is available for Android and iPhones. To learn more about Massachusetts Alerts, and for information on how to download the free app onto your smartphone, visit: www.mass.gov/mema/mobileapp.

Utilize MEMA’s real-time power outage viewer to stay informed about current power outages in your community and region, and across the state, including information from utility companies about restoration times: http://mema.mapsonline.net/public.html

Online Resources:

For additional information and resources, visit:
Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency at www.mass.gov/mema
MEMA's Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/MassachusettsEMA
MEMA Twitter: @MassEMA
Federal Emergency Management Agency at www.fema.gov
National Weather Service/Taunton at www.weather.gov/boston
National Weather Service/Albany, NY at www.weather.gov/albany
National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Northeast River Forecast Center: http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/

Mass211 at www.mass211.org