[TxHam] TS Erin Advisory 5 (with comments)

[David J]

[COMMENTS BY KB5YLG]

Two tropical storm events possibly escalating to
hurricanes are on the move toward south Texas, one
expected to make landfall tomorrow, the other possibly
in 5 to 7 days.

Note that disaster relief agencies and responder
agencies are in the preAlert or alert status, with a
few in standby.  

Texas Baptist Men (of which I am a member) is in
pre-alert, although some units in south Texas have
been escalated to alert or stand by.

If you are a communicator with involvement with a
disaster relief agency, you should establish contact
with your agency unit per your normal procedures, to
insure you have your agency's latest communication
plan, and that you are in the loop for this response.

regards,

David Johnson KB5YLG

---

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NHC MIAMI FL   AL052007
400 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ALREADY AFFECTING
THE TEXAS
COAST...

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE TEXAS
COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN LUIS
PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
SAN LUIS PASS
SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED


AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4
WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES...315 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND
ABOUT 210
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL. ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING ERIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68
INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
8 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN ISOLATED COASTAL LOCATION TO THE NORTH
OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...94.4 W. 
MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.


FOREC