[TWIAR] CNN - Forecast calls for calmer space weather

[Greg Williams]

(CNN) -- The tumultuous sun appears to be calming down, becoming less likely
to unleash intense bursts of energy that wreak havoc around the Earth,
according to astronomers.

Weeks ago, NASA scientists said that the great ball of fire appeared to have
reached a second peak of activity. Yet this week, Harvard astrophysicists
predicted that the stormy sun would steadily transform into a gentle giant
in the coming years.

"As we approached solar minimum, only five years away, the sun will produce
fewer solar flares and fewer coronal mass ejections," the
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics researchers said in a statement.

Such outbursts of highly charged particles, if directed toward Earth, can
smash into the upper atmosphere, producing colorful aurora displays and
making electrical systems go haywire on everything from satellites to power
grids.

The frequency and intensity of such storms coincide with the waxing and
waning of the sun during a roughly 11-year cycle. The sun reached the peak
of activity, or solar maximum, in mid-2000.

After slowing down, the sun seemed to pick up its pace and entered a second
peak phase by late 2001, NASA scientists said in February.

The announcement came days before NASA sent the High Energy Solar
Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) into orbit. The launch of the sun-watching
spacecraft had been delayed for more than a year.

The $85 million satellite is equipped with a new kind of camera to create
high-fidelity films of X-ray and gamma ray outbursts from the sun, the most
powerful explosions in the solar system.

The Harvard team based its forecast on observations from the Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite of atomic particle speeds and
temperatures in the sun's atmosphere.

The researchers caution that while the sun becomes calmer, it can still pack
powerful punches. During the more tranquil phases, wind gusts from the sun's
poles can migrate closer to the sun's equator and then drift in the Earth's
direction.

"We will still need to be mindful of the approach of these high-speed wind
streams and their associated high-energy electrons and magnetic disturbances
that will still pose a threat to all of our [satellites]," the team's
statement said.