[TheForge] The Siberian Hole. (Was: Slack tank.) ..POL OT
Andrew Vida
osan at netlabs.net
Sun Aug 10 19:51:28 EDT 2014
But... but...
global warming...
corporations...
gay marriage...
think of the *children*...
On 8/8/14, 11:38 PM, Dave Mudge wrote:
> I am sure that this is the stuff of a great and wonderful extended
> discussion,
> and I encourage you all to continue the discussion ELSEWHERE.
> Unless you can tie this in to Siberian blacksmiths fueling their forges
> with
> escaping methane, then please take it off-line.
>
> Your ever vigilant list mom,
> dave m
>
>
> On Fri, Aug 8, 2014 at 4:40 PM, Geoff Nelson <gjn.pub at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Don't want to start a war so all I'm going to say is I still don't believe.
>>
>> Have a great day.
>>
>> Geoff
>>
>> On 8/08/2014 12:37 PM, Bruce . wrote:
>>
>>> I posted this nearly four years ago. How time flies.
>>>
>>> I just thought all of you who still don't believe in climate change ought
>>> to catch this article:
>>>
>>> http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/08/
>>> 05/scientists-may-have-cracked-the-giant-siberian-
>>> crater-mystery-and-the-news-isnt-good/
>>>
>>> The gist is that that mysterious hole in Siberia (or three holes, now, it
>>> seems) was apparently due to rapid release of methane trapped in frozen
>>> soil. I reckon the methane was probably in the form of methane clathrate
>>> (or hydrate) that became unstable as the ground warmed. See:
>>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate
>>>
>>> Well, we know the polar ice caps are melting. Now we find that methane
>>> will explode out of the ground when the soil warms in those regions. I
>>> hadn't actually expected this, but it makes sense. The hydrates in the
>>> ocean sediment will take longer to be warmed due to the massive heat sink
>>> that is the ocean. That is not true of the land, however, where
>>> temperature changes can be very local. Furthermore, methane is a
>>> greenhouse gas, so these methane releases will exacerbate climate change.
>>>
>>> I'm actually rather glad at this point I have no children or grandchildren
>>> to see this out. I'm rather hoping I get to live out my life before the
>>> next extinction event -- the one that claims humans.
>>>
>>> Bruce
>>> NJ
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sat, Dec 18, 2010 at 12:36 PM, Bruce Freeman <freemab222 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> I am a scientist, but not a climate scientist. I have for years
>>>> considered the world to be going the wrong way in terms of
>>>> ever-increasing human population, continued extinctions of species,
>>>> and every-increasing reliance on fossil fuels. Frankly, I believe the
>>>> human race is doomed by its own stupidity, but that doesn't matter
>>>> much to me because I will be long gone before the cataclysm. I have
>>>> no offspring nor relatives closer by blood than a second cousin, so it
>>>> will not be me or mine who suffers from this, but only you or yours.
>>>>
>>>> (Is that cold? Shouldn't I be concerned about all children, not just
>>>> my own? Well, the entrenched powers that be have essentially decided
>>>> that anyone interested in working with kids must be a pedophile.
>>>> Therefore, though I do volunteer work, I refuse to do any work with
>>>> children even though I might find it quite rewarding. Conservatives
>>>> will blame "those Liberals" for this state of affairs, but being
>>>> Liberal myself, I know it actually to be due to entrenched powers
>>>> seeking to increase their power, which is about as non-Liberal as one
>>>> can get. But all this should be saved for another flame war.)
>>>>
>>>> It is a FACT that "global warming" IS occurring.* In addition, I have
>>>> seen too much evidence NOT to believe that atmospheric carbon dioxide
>>>> is increasing. That constitutes correlation, and any good scientist
>>>> (which by no means includes all scientists) recognizes that
>>>> correlation does not imply causation.**
>>>>
>>>> However, there is every reason to believe that an increase in
>>>> atmospheric carbon dioxide WILL LEAD to global warming. This is due
>>>> to the infrared absorbance spectrum of carbon dioxide and other
>>>> atmospheric gases -- the well known greenhouse effect. Light of short
>>>> wavelength (high energy) such as visible and UV impinge upon the
>>>> earth, which heats up and re-radiates IR light (low energy, long
>>>> wavelength).
>>>>
>>>> With no atmosphere, all this IR would radiate out into space. The air
>>>> absorbs some small amount of IR. (I don't have the spectra in front of
>>>> me, but I recall that oxygen in the "near infrared" -- the higher
>>>> energy end of the IR spectrum -- whereas nitrogen doesn't absorb until
>>>> the "far infrared".) Since we wouldn't care to do without a
>>>> nitrogen-oxygen atmosphere, we can take that amount of absorbance as
>>>> "baseline." (BTW, this has nothing to do with the "hole in the ozone
>>>> layer", a common misconception.)
>>>>
>>>> The Wikipedia article on air gives the following tabulation:
>>>> Gas Volume
>>>> Nitrogen (N2) 780,840 ppmv (78.084%)
>>>> Oxygen (O2) 209,460 ppmv (20.946%)
>>>> Argon (Ar) 9,340 ppmv (0.9340%)
>>>> Carbon dioxide (CO2) 390 ppmv (0.039%)
>>>> [plus other gases at lesser amounts.]
>>>> Not included in above dry atmosphere:
>>>> Water vapor (H2O) ~0.40% over full atmosphere, typically 1%-4% at
>>>> surface
>>>>
>>>> Note that water vapor absorbs a lot of IR, and some say that it cannot
>>>> be disregarded as a contributor to the greenhouse effect. This is
>>>> very true, but irrelevant. Water vapor varies widely due to
>>>> temperature changes, etc., and therefore its contribution to IR
>>>> absorbance is not constant. In any event, it is not something that
>>>> human activity increases -- except perhaps insofar as atmospheric
>>>> water vapor increases due to increased surface temperature.
>>>>
>>>> By contrast, when carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere, it pretty much
>>>> stays there. It can be removed by dissolution in water, by absorption
>>>> on alkali (which is probably irrelevant), or its incorporation into
>>>> plant material by photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is less soluble in
>>>> warm water than in cold water, so increased ocean temperature may
>>>> result in increased atmospheric carbon dioxide.
>>>>
>>>> Hence, the only ways to lower carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are to
>>>> vastly increase plant growth or to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
>>>>
>>>> Now, pretend for a moment that the global warming activists managed to
>>>> convince everybody on Earth, especially those in positions of power,
>>>> that atmospheric carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels was
>>>> ultimately responsible for global warming, and that it continuance
>>>> would result in severe catastrophe. What would they do? Well, they'd
>>>> make lots of noise about doing stuff, but ultimately they would do
>>>> nothing. Atmospheric carbon dioxide would increase till whatever
>>>> result that causes happened.
>>>>
>>>> Why do I say this? Because I understand human nature. Look at the
>>>> economy. Look at all the lip service given it. Is anything
>>>> substantial being done by either party? Well, they'd have you think
>>>> so, but ultimately NO politician will advocate true austerity. (It's
>>>> not commonly appreciated that even while Nazi Germany was losing the
>>>> war the Nazi govt. was very careful to maintain production of consumer
>>>> goods so as to avoid austerity measures, despite the fact that
>>>> curtailing their production would have freed up factories and workers
>>>> for munitions production.) People don't like to confront ugly
>>>> reality, and will make every excuse not to do so, or not to do so in
>>>> any meaningful way. This same psychology will prevent any meaningful
>>>> policy changes to reduce significantly the consumption of fossil
>>>> fuels.
>>>>
>>>> But I've saved the real cataclysm for last. People see soda water
>>>> every day without appreciating its implications. People paddle their
>>>> boats through marshes, stirring up "rotten egg" smells of hydrogen
>>>> sulfide, without appreciating its implications. Few people outside
>>>> the petroleum industry have ever heard of hydrocarbon hydrates,
>>>> including methane hydrate, but the end may come as a result of it.
>>>> Carbon dioxide (which will suffocate you and will cause enhanced
>>>> greenhouse effect), hydrogen sulfide (which not only stinks, but is
>>>> more toxic than cyanide gas), and methane (believe to exist in vast
>>>> amounts as a hydrate at the bottom of oceans) may someday upwell from
>>>> the oceans into the atmosphere as a result of changes in the earths
>>>> temperature, global or local. If this occurs in a modest way, it WILL
>>>> increase the greenhouse effect and may lead to a further accelerating
>>>> increase thereto. If it occurs massively in one fell cataclysm, it
>>>> will poison the atmosphere or perhaps even render it explosive.
>>>>
>>>> Meanwhile, even if humanity recognizes this probability, we are NOT
>>>> going to make any changes to policies because it might cause true
>>>> austerity and, heaven forbid, cut into corporate (and fat cats')
>>>> profits. It is as certain as 1+1=2 that we will continue to blunder
>>>> on until we run out of fossil fuel. If we manage to last that long,
>>>> there's some hope. At that point, starvation and war for the
>>>> remaining resources would reduce the human population to sustainable
>>>> levels (which may be only a few hundred thousand by then) , evolution
>>>> would adapt humans or other life forms to tolerate what remains of the
>>>> ecosystem, and life would go on -- in some form or other.
>>>>
>>>> But YOU -- you're doomed, folks. Or rather, your grandchildren are
>>>> doomed, as I doubt this will happen sooner than a lifetime from now.
>>>>
>>>> Happy Holidays, everybody,
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --------------------
>>>> *In a a room at normal "room temperature", place a thermometer and an
>>>> ice cube or two in a cup of water and stir well. The thermometer WILL
>>>> read 32*F (0*C). (This is a fact and is not subject to debate.) Keep
>>>> stirring and watch the ice and the thermometer. The thermometer will
>>>> continue to read 32*F until the ice is GONE. (This is also a fact,
>>>> not subject to debate.)
>>>>
>>>> At that point the water temperature will begin to rise (at a rate
>>>> dependent upon many things) until it eventually reaches room
>>>> temperature. Note that while ice is present in the glass, the
>>>> temperature does not change despite the fact that warming is clearly
>>>> occurring. This is due to the distinction between heat (which is
>>>> increasing) and temperature (which does not increase until the ice is
>>>> melted).
>>>>
>>>> Now apply this to the Earth. The average temperature on earth will
>>>> not increase significantly till all the ice is melted. (Due to
>>>> inhomogeneity of mixing, this statement is not such an absolute as the
>>>> statements about the ice water, but in general it is true.)
>>>> What this means is that "global warming" refers to an overall increase
>>>> in the BTU content of the Earth, and NOT to an overall increase in its
>>>> temperature.
>>>>
>>>> ----------------------
>>>> **E.g., hem lines are correlated to the stock market. If that were
>>>> true we would have long ago mandated that hem lines not drop below the
>>>> clavicle -- a result I'd support for all the wrong reasons.
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Bruce
>>>> NJ
>>>>
>>>> ______________________________________________________________
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>> --
>> Kind regards
>>
>> Geoff
>>
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