[TheForge] OT weather v. climate

[Peter Fels And Phoebe Palmer]

Bob, Mikey;
I'd guess that the worst  result of taking global warming 
seriously , is that we do the right things for the wrong reasons.
             pf

Kathy wrote:
> To Bob,
> 
> You wrote:
> "Climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time, generally  
> around 30 years. This averaging over time removes the random and  
> unpredictable behavior of weather. This by no means says that it is  
> necessarily easy to predict climate changes, but clearly siezing on the  
> weather man's one week failure to cast doubt on a climate model's 100  
> year projection is an argument of ignorance."
> 
> Far be it from me to ask embarrassing questions, but doesn't the record keeping
> of the British over the last three centuries prove very nicely that your "thirty
> years" comment, when taken in perspective, was closer to weather than climate?
> Than of course, we can't forget the inconveniently historic example of the
> centuries long cold snap called the middle ages.
> 
> I'm not to be found in the denial camp, nor in the global warming is the great
> buggy-man of our age camp. What I do believe is that global warming is primarily
> a political discussion, and in this light, "scientific" claims should be viewed
> with even more suspicion than statements of denial. Both camps are filled with
> private agendas and fearful people; neither of which is good for finding the
> truth. That one side is getting the funding and media attention to attract more
> "expert" yes-men is no valid reason for my personal acceptance; I was never very
> fond of Chicken Little.
> Mikey
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: theforge-bounces at mailman.qth.net [mailto:theforge-bounces at mailman.qth.net]
> On Behalf Of schade at acegroup.cc
> Sent: Saturday, March 03, 2007 6:39 AM
> To: Sponsored by ABANA
> Subject: Re: [TheForge] OT weather v. climate
> 
> 
> On Mar 2, 2007, at 7:19 PM, Jerry Frost wrote:
> 
>> Question two, unintentional or not. I think it's simply a matter a way  
>> to make money for folk who are otherwise unemployable. The best  
>> computer models on the planet running on the fastest computers on the  
>> planet can't reliably predict the weather more than a couple days in  
>> advance. Why in the world anyone would believe someone who try tellng  
>> us what it's going to do a century from now amazes me.
>>
> ____________________________________
> 
> http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/2006/03/we-cant-even-predict-weather- 
> next-week.html
> 
> We Can't Even Predict the Weather Next Week
> (Part of the How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic guide)
> 
> Objection:
> Scientists can't even predict the weather next week, so why should we  
> believe what some climate model tells us about 100 years from now.
> 
> This is a very common line and might even be sincere if presented from  
> someone completely ignorant of the difference between climate and  
> weather. Usually it is more of a childish taunt, only one step above  
> name calling. Just remember that the only chance the denialists have is  
> if they can bring you down to a very low level of debate.
> 
> Answer:
> Climate and weather are really very different things and the level of  
> predictability is comparably different. Think of it as the difference  
> between trying to predict the height of the fifth wave from now that  
> will come splashing up the beach versus predicting the height of  
> tomorrow's high tide.
> 
> Climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time, generally  
> around 30 years. This averaging over time removes the random and  
> unpredictable behaviour of weather. This by no means says that it is  
> necessarily easy to predict climate changes, but clearly siezing on the  
> weather man's one week failure to cast doubt on a climate model's 100  
> year projection is an argument of ignorance.
> 
> clipped by Bob
> 
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