[TheForge] The Undiscovered Country OT YAK LONG HIT DELETE NOW

[Andy Vida]

Keporter@aol.com wrote:

>> xmas4lites@earthlink.net writes:
>>  That is one of the reasons there was such a big glass industry in
>> this region before NAFTA and China killed it.

>   In the past craftsmen were displaced by factory production. That method
> created an abundance of material goods, making life more comfortable; it has also
> been a blight in many ways.

	Agreed.
> 
>   Today the self anointed are doing their best to ship our jobs overseas and
> invite us to live Mclives.

	Doubly agreed.

> This isn't happening because they hate us (they hardly think of us at
> all). It is happening because they have no better plan.

	In terms of those at the very apex of world power, I would 
	have to disagree.  From yon lofty heights, what does one
	see?  An ever more crowded world with huge masses of humans
	whose lives hang by a thread that is tenuous at best and
	who are not even dimly aware of this little bit of reality.

	Were I in that place, I would see masses that are in ever
	increasing need to be corralled and controlled lest that
	tenous order collapse into chaos and mayhem.
	
	I'm not saying this is either right or wrong, but that it
	is what is perceived.  Such perception explains McLives.
	They may not hate us, but they DO fear us, and with good
	good reason.  A brief perusal of the French and Russian
	revolutions, just to name two out of seemingly countless
	examples of humans gone blood simple, should provide all
	the illustration needed of how ugly the mob can get and 
	how easily it happens.  Mere hunger will do it.

> Factory production itself is a worn out idea. It is certainly
> capable of providing material goods, but it mostly created miserable
> jobs in which people were trapped, hoping for a few good years of
> retirement at the end of a long boring "career."

	Is that really "factory production" per se, or are you 
	confusing it with a flavor of?  Assuming we are to maintain
	a lifestyle where "things" are readily available as
	desired, what alternative is there?  Our technology is
	not yet nearly advanced enough to where I can break out
	my portable Univeral Home Factory unit and produce my
	own lumber and gasoline and plastics and medicines and
	foods, etc.  With the world population being what it is
	and showing absolutely no signs of slowing down, the
	need to produce with as little waste as possible seems
	to be greater than ever, at least to me.

	You seem to imply that some individualized production scheme
	will supplant factory production.  Certainly a nice idea
	but I don't see it happening precisely because of problems
	with efficiency, but I could be wrong about it.

> It is dying because factories need constantly increasing markets in
> which to dump goods. Constantly expanding markets in an ever
> shrinking world isn't much of an economic plan.

	Not sure I understand you here.  That or I would have to
	disagree at least in part.  I would agree with you in
	terms of durable goods such as a steam hammer that lasts
	for 150 years+++.  Once you've delivered hammers to every
	smithy, you're out of business, so you always need larger
	numbers of smiths.  But in terms of many or perhaps even
	most or even all razor blade industries (food's a good
	example) a given population will always need more of your
	product because the product is disposable and in constant
	new demand.

>   I'm not trying to argue that mass production was a bad thing. It was what
> it was.

	??? it still is what it was, in the main.  The difference
	is that many of the processes have become far more efficient
	and precise, largely due to computer control.

	We must be working on differing definitions of "mass production"
	because if we were not in a mass producing mode in the current
	contexts of population and economic models, I'm not sure we 
	would not have collapsed into chaos and a revertant stone age
	culture by now.  If all the ironwork was being done by a
	village smithy (imagine a blacksmith shop every second block in
	Mahanattan, for example), we'd be living in worse squalor than
	we currently see in our industrial base, waste would be rampant
	and I'm not condfident that we'd be anything better than cave
	men living in the hollow shells of our glorious past.

> I am saying it is no longer a workable thing. At least not in the sense
> of being "the engine of industry." There will be factory goods and factory
> jobs in the future, just as in the past. But, the factories will be scaled back,
> and much more flexible.

	I agree that this is being worked toward, but I don't think we
	are anywhere near it yet.  CNC tooling revolutionized the
	manufacturing world.  Look at our cars: four valve DOHC engines
	putting out 300 bhp and still getting 20 mpg, and at a price
	we can afford, largely.  An engine such as that would have cost
	$100K alone back in the 1970s and without the efficiency and
	reliability.  Universal manufaturing machinery is a definite
	goal, but we're nto even close to that level of technological
	manipulation of material.  That's akin to a "replicator".  Nice
	idea, but nowhere near reality yet.

> When the pain is done, people in them will be
> technicians, and engineers. Hopefully, their lives will be as improved as the
> products they make, but there are no guarantees. There won't be many of those jobs,
> either. So, what will the rest of us do?

	Well, now you've hit upon a key problem that highlights one
	glaring reason why there's a good chance that we're most of us
	screwed in the long run.  I wondered about this many many years
	ago and figured that one day we would be in some serious trouble
	because a very small number of people will be producing 100% of
	the necessary goods for the entire world.  What do the rest of
	the people do?  Live for free?  Even if we could do that, the
	boredom would be a soul killer and people would find things to
	bring some drama into their lives, and I'm afraid that much of 
	it would not be anything that you or I would even remotely connect
	with the concept of "good". 

	We're seeing the effects of this as we type.  Something is happening
	in the USA that has never happened anywhere in the world before this
	as far as I know.  Our economy is growing at near record rates and
	yet our unemployment rate is also growing.  We're already too
	efficient to support everyone.  Unless something new comes along that
	will demand bodies, what are all these people going to do?  Even I have
	been hit by this.  I used to work year round and get upwards of $200
	an hour to do what I do.  Now I work 6 months out of the year and am
	lucky to get $50 or $60 per hour.  The supply has outstripped the
	demand in most sectors.

	How much worse to you think it can get before significant numbers
	of people can start going hungry before a palpable reaction results?
	Those of us that do work and have enough income to remain in comfort
	are also paying to keep the stomachs full of those who have been
	unemployed for two years or more.  I believe that is a proposition
	that works at a very definite deficit, meaning it is only a matter
	of time before something seriously scary starts happening if the
	situation isn't remedied in some sustainable fashion.

>    Again, to speak of the future, we must start in the past. This time we can
> stop at grade school. That was where you first ran into the in-crowd. Take a
> minuet to remember the charming little darlings, but stop short of clenching
> your teeth. Onwards and upwards; they were with us through the whole journey,
> high school, college--they were always there and always dedicated to one
> thing--rising above it all; in other words, walking on our backs. Today, they are
> shipping our jobs overseas, etc., etc. Really, did we expect something better
> from them?

	Ah the proverbial "them".  Well they are looking out for #1.
	They have the will and influence to make the law bend to their
	wills.  We don't.  Not because we have no money, but because
	we are lazy bastards too busy stroking the trouser snake, too
	preoccupied with the Stupor Bowl and net porn and simplistic
	stupid crap like that to get our fat asses up out of the recliner
	and take the attitude of Patrick Henry, may god bless him, 
	and see to it that we become educated enough to know what's
	going on and to know what our true best interests are, and to
	take action as needed, even if it means taking up arms.  But that
	isn't going to happen as long as people are getting by.  But what
	most folks don't seem to notice is that what used to be considered
	"getting by" in our parents' generation now looks like luxury to
	a very large proportion of our people.  In the 1950s a guy with
	a wife and a steady job could afford to buy a house at 25 years of
	age and younger.  Today there are few people at that age that even
	entertain such thoughts.  I didn't buy my first house until I was
	29.  these days most of the people I have worked with at that age
	think buying a house is still years off.  Just how far have we fallen?

>   At last we arrive at the undiscovered country, for the future is now.

	that's very quaint sounding, but what of it?  The future has 
	always been now.  That hasn't prevented us from collectively
	painting ourselves into a very precarious corner.  We've
	neglected to keep our peckers in our pants, so we overflow
	with population.  We have neglected to remain vigilant with
	respect to political goings on.  We have neglected to hold
	the feet of those in whom the public trust is vested to the fire.
	Let there be a death penalty for any public official convicted
	of any violation of the public trust and see the cockroaches
	scatter!  Nobody would want public office save for a very few
	dedicated souls.  What a bounty this would be for us, but that
	isn't enough.

	Freedom and prosperity are not free commodities.  A lot of people
	gave their lives so we can watch the Stupor Bowl or a pair of
	lesbians make out on the Howard Stern show.  We aren't maintaining
	our rights sufficiently, that much I can say without pause.

> Every
> one of us is living in the future at this moment. We are sitting two feet
> away from it, and typing into it. The little box that's connected to the world.
> This is the first era in history where craftsmen can talk to one another clear
> around the globe. If nothing else, you can sell your wares on Ebay. We don't
> need the approval of department stores; just our customers. Control of
> information and markets is freedom. There is going to be plenty of discomfort.
> Frontiers are frightening places, but the in-crowd cannot ship craft work overseas.

	I agree with you, ut you still don't address the larger question
	of "us v them" and our failures as a people and as individuals
	to actively maintain freedom and prosperity.  To "them" we are
	as fodder, don't fool yourself.  When it suits "them", our young
	men (and now women too) go and die en masse and even larger
	numbers return with their bodies and lives ravaged by the by products
	of war.  All this at the stroke of a pen and the wave of a hand.
	That is insane and we are insane for allowing it.
> 
>     Economies are like rip tides. The undertow always has them firmly in its
> grip even as we think the tide (prosperity) is coming in. If the tide came in
> forever, we would all drown. Every economic model of prosperity is just as
> unworkable as a one way tide. The best we can do is to plant our feet firmly and
> deal with change. It is as inevitable as incrowds :o)

	I agree with your assertion of waxing and waning, but the cycle
	is going a bit more violent than usual.  I suppose time will
	tell, as it always does, just how far things will go before
	swinging back.  I firmly believe there are limits to how far the
	swing can go before a serious collapse ensues and i'm not entirely
	convinced that the swing is under sufficient positive control to
	where things couldn't get away from those who pull the strings of
	the world's economies.