[TheForge] Re: Price of steel & scrap-OT

[Andy Vida]

Mike wrote:
> 
> > Anybody have a clue?

> There has been a series of fads for various kinds of paper, flogged to
> the retail investors as better than gold.  Unless you got into the
> dot.com bubble and out again at just the right time, these have been
> okay at best and a dead loss at worst.

	Hee hee hee... I somewhat regret not having invested in a
	big score deal, but I knew from day one that it was a sham.
	My grand mistake was giving people too much credit for brains
	and not enough for greed/patience.  I never thought that
	spoogefest would last for five whole years.  I figured two
	at best.  Just shows how wrong a guy can be.  Ah well...

>  The professional and
> institutional investors, on the other hand, are frantically dithering
> around, looking for places to put their money.

	Yeah, that's the funny part of it.  There's a LOT of
	investment capital out there.  At least as  much as
	ever, if not more.  But the dotcommies left such a
	huge hole in the confidence of investors that every
	body is gun shy, and with good reason.  And what is
	left?

	I'm wondering if the world economic model is finally
	going to hit that inevitable brick wall at 200 mph?
	Honestly, I hope not.  I'd much rather it happen in
	about 100 years, as I and my beloved daughter will both
	have been dead enough years that it won't matter a
	whit to either of us.  I hate to sound like I'm saying
	"screw the future generations", but I guess that's
	sort of what I'm doing.  I see no way out of this
	short of major catastrophe or armed insurrection, and
	neither of those options, necessary as they may be,
	are very appealing to myself or anyone I know.

>  Oil, coal, China,
> income trusts, resource depletion, mortgage funds, mutual funds, index
> funds, job export, India etc. etc.  The future appears to have the
> potential for sudden, large and unanticipated excursions.

	You said it pal.  I firmly believe we are in VERY
	historical times.  I'd so much rather be living in
	boring, cozy days... oh well.

	As one of my bosses at AT&T used to tell the overly
	serious young man that I was at 27: "Smile, it only
	gets worse."  Here's to you, Bob Fazio!
> 
> Cash sounds good.  Durable tangibles such as anvils. I don't think
> we're at the point yet where the best advice is "Bullets and
> Cigarettes".

	I agree, but you may be surprised at how rapidly we
	could get to that point.  One thing I have become clear
	upon in my mental musings whose sanity is arguable,
	is that the fabric of our collective material existence
	is very tenuous at best.  I've done entirely too much
	watching and thinking about such things and I see that
	it would take only one major catastrophe to set our world
	teetering on the edge of annihilation.  I'm not speaking
	of nuclear war, either, though that is also one of the
	catastrophes to which I refer.

	Imagine a worldwide famine, and I mean the real thing
	and not just "hard years".  I mean NO FOOD.  I'm 1/2
	city slicker and 1/2 country boy.  I MIGHT be able to
	make my way OK.  I know how to raise crops and critters.
	Most folks, particularly your urbanites and most suburbanites
	don't know the first thing about it.  Nintendo skills won't
	cut the mustard in a world without enough food to go around.
	A nation that has basically never known hunger would implode
	in no time once the reserves ran out.  People would be at
	each others throats for a bite to eat, and who can blame
	them?  My point is that the veneer of civilization is far
	thinner than most people seem to believe.  We seem to be
	living in a collective hallucination, believing that we
	are part of something that is far, far greater and stable
	and noble than it really is.  I have always found it amazing
	what a profound effect something as simple as clothing can
	have (and generally does have) on the perceptions people 
	have of each other.  This hit me when I was a much younger
	man, particularly when I got that girl that, by virtue of
	her appearance and outward displays of attitude, I thought
	was out of reach.  Lo and behold there she is, standing
	before and getting pleasingly naked.  It never failed to
	gain my notice that once the clothes are off, just how
	incredibly equal and HUMAN we both became.  It is a great
	thing to experience.  Sex doesn't hurt, either.

	The bottom line is that we're all just winging it.  When
	I was 28 years old, AT&T put a $100M development project
	in my lap.  Did I know what to do?  HELL NO!  But never 
	once did I let on, and guess what?  It worked!  I staffed
	and ran that project like a sumbitch, relying on my inner
	voices to guide my actions, and it worked like a charm.

	Nothing is as solid or credible as it is made to appear, but
	that doesn't make much impact on most folks who look at
	corporate institutions and government with such senses of
	awe because of the huge edifices and icons and fancy
	schmancy language and pronouncements and men with guns.
	THE MEDIUM IS THE MESSAGE and it's all a psyche-out that
	99% of everyone seems to fall for.  All it takes is the
	awareness and willingness to topple the house of cards
	and it would disappear before one's very eyes.  A simple
	thing, but so very difficult to achieve.  The apparitions
	we each share visions of are powerfully convincing as are
	the threats that back many of them.  Fear and convenience
	keep the shell game afloat, but one single powerful external
	stab at it would bring masses of humanity into a sudden,
	very unpleasantly different, and unassailably solid reality.
	As you note, we may be heading there.  Wouldn't surprise me
	one bit, either.

	I wish I had real answers.  I'd sell them and retire. :)