[TAC] [Fwd: Solar Cycle]

[Hank Kohl K8DD]

*Next cycle of sunspots may be more disruptive

Associated Press
Mar. 11, 2006 12:00 AM

LOS ANGELES - A new computer model suggests the next solar cycle will be
more active than the previous one, potentially spawning magnetic storms
that will be more disruptive to Earth's communication systems.

The next sunspot cycle will be 30 percent to 50 percent more intense than
the last one, scientists say.

The cycle will also begin a year later than expected, in late 2007 or early
2008, and peak around 2012, said Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for
Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

The new prediction is at odds with other forecasts, which suggested that
the intensity of the next solar cycle would be smaller.

Accurately predicting the intensity of the sunspot cycle, which occurs
about every 11 years, allows scientists to anticipate solar storms. They
are caused by solar flares, or giant eruptions that burst from the surface
of the sun.

Solar storms, which eject billions of tons of plasma and charged particles
into space, can produce dazzling northern lights, but also disrupt power
lines, radio transmissions and satellite communications.

The last time the solar cycle peaked was in 2001. During the last cycle,
solar storms caused extreme radio blackouts in the Pacific.

For decades, scientists have tracked the solar cycle and appearance of
sunspots, but they have been unable to predict the intensity or timing of
solar storms, which increase as the number of sunspots increases.

Dikpati, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said her team
tested the new computer model using previous solar-cycle data and had 98
percent accuracy.

David Hathaway, a solar astronomer with NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center
in Huntsville, Ala., does not doubt that the next sunspot cycle will be
stronger than the previous one. But he said his research suggests that the
next cycle will occur late this year, earlier than what Dikpati predicted.*

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