[TAC] [Fwd: Re: NOAA 822]

[Ian Hill]

Well that's good news.

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Hank Kohl K8DD" <k8dd at arrl.net>
To: "Thumb (MI) Area Contesters (and DX'ers)" <tac at mailman.qth.net>
Sent: Friday, November 18, 2005 10:50 AM
Subject: [TAC] [Fwd: Re: NOAA 822]


> I sent off an email to Paul Harden NA5N, the Solar Guru who also happens
> to be
> an active QRPer.  Below is his response about NOAA 822.
>
>
>
> -------- Original Message --------
> Subject: Re: NOAA 822
> Date: Thu, 17 Nov 2005 09:58:12 -0700
> From: na5n at zianet.com
> To: k8dd at k8dd.com
> References: <437C8B4D.20004 at k8dd.com>
>
>
>
> Hank,
>
> > >BIG SUNSPOT:  An impressive sunspot, "NOAA 822," has appeared on the
> > >Earth-facing side of the sun.  Measured from end to end, it is wider
than
> > >Jupiter, and it is crackling with M-class (medium-sized) solar flares.
>
> I'm not sure what "crackling with M-class flares" means.  It has produced
a
> couple of C-class flares and a single M-class 2 days ago - before it
rotated
> into geoeffective position to effect Earth.  It's been pretty quiet for
the
> past 24 hours.
>
> > >So far none of the explosions has hurled a coronal mass ejection toward
> > >Earth. Geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible, however, if this
> > >'spot unleashes a major flare in the days ahead.
>
> Generally, a C-class flare, and even a small M-class, will not trigger a
> significant geomagnetic event.
>
> > Paul ....
> > Just saw this on spaceweather.com .... Sunday we are headed out for St
> > Pierre and Miquelon Islands for 9 days, which includes the CQ WW CW
> > contest.
>
> Wow! That sounds like fun.  XYL Jan N0QT likes to work that contest, so
I'll
> tell her to keep an ear out for you.  At least put one NM in the log -hi.
>
> > Not that we are going to cancel our trip, but what are your thoughts on
> > how 822 might affect us from that far north?
>
> Sunspot 822 is a "beta-gamma" group, meaning it has strong, developing
> magnetic field disturbances and capable of producing flares, but a small
> M-class (M1-M4) range would be the largest.  Right now, it is approaching
> the center of the sun where it CAN cause the most damage to Earth should
it
> produce an M-class flare.  On the other hand, it will rotate across the
sun's
> surface and be out of range from causing harm in another 5-6 days.  In
other
> words, this sunspot would be of concern only for the next few days in
terms
> of triggering a major geomagnetic storm.  By the time you get to St.
Pierre,
> it will have rotated to the limb or backside and be of no concern.
>
> It's very difficult to predict what a sunspot, even a beta-gamma group,
will
> do.  Some get really hot and never do a thing; other's can suddenly flare
> quite large and surprise everyone.  It's not an exact science yet.
>
> The thing to remember during CQ WW, if a large solar flare SHOULD suddenly
> occur during the contest, it COULD ionize the D-layer and cause a near
total
> HF blackout immediately following the flare event. However, this condition
> seldom lasts longer than an hour before the bands fully recover.  It is a
> temporary condition - so don't pull the plug and go home.  Just wait.
And,
> because the flare ionized the D-layer, it means it also ionized the E/F
> layers.  So when the bands recover, the ionization of the E/F layers just
> improved reflectivity and raised the MUF for the rest of the day -
actually
> improving conditions in many cases.  That might open up 10M that wasn't
> previously open.
>
> Those nasty geomagnetic storm triggered by a large flare takes 2+ days to
> get here, so it won't arrive until well after the contest.  The farther
> north you go, the more sensitive things are to the Earth's geomagnetic
> field.  Solar wind gets dumped into the polar regions, causing local
> disturbances and the aurora.  I don't think St. Pierre is quite that far
> north, but you may find the lower bands a bit noisier than down here.
>
> GL and have a great trip.
>
> 72, Paul NA5N
>
>
>
>
> ______________________________________________________________
> TAC mailing list
> Home: http://mailman.qth.net/mailman/listinfo/tac
> Help: http://mailman.qth.net/mmmain.htm
> Post: mailto:TAC at mailman.qth.net