[SMCARA] Propagation forecast for Field Day

[Tom Shelton]

>From the ARRL Propagation forecast...

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 88 on June 10-13, then 86, 84, 84, 88, 95, on June 14-18, then 92 on June 19-21, 95 and 100 on June 22-23 and 110 on June 24-26. Solar flux then rises to a peak of 115 on June 28. Predicted planetary A index is 25, 12, 8 and 8 on June 10-13, then 5 on June 14-22, then peaking at 15 on June 24-25.

To summarize, we will have much better solar flux numbers (the higher, the better) on June 25-26 than we’ve seen for the last few years.  However, the planetary A index will be much higher as well.  The planetary A index is a measurement of earths magnetic field's disturbance, and this disturbance produces electromagnetic radiation all over earth, creating noise in radio communications.  So, we’ll be able to make some great contacts, but there will be a higher level of background noise that might override weaker signals.

My personal (from experience) guesstimate, is for activity on the following bands (in local times).

10M – Noon until 7:00 PM – Starting North/South and progressing to East/West.  Generally quiet – either a station will be heard, or it won’t – there will be little middle ground.
15M – 10:00 AM until 9:00 PM – North-South for a couple of hours on each end of the bell-curve, but should be good in almost any direction for most of the time.  Generally quiet, but a solar storm could shut this band (along with 10M) down.
20M – 8:00 AM until 11:00 PM – Should be good for any direction, but mostly East-West because the f-layer refraction will make for longer distances.
40M – All day and night – Weaker during sunlight hours, but blanket coverage of the US in from just after sunset to just before sunrise.  Some interference from European Shortwave broadcasters from 8:00 PM until just after midnight.  Also, generally higher background noise levels, could be between S-5 and S-7.
80M – Virtually silent during the day, but very active with good coverage of the eastern half of the US between sunset and sunrise.

In short – it looks like a pretty good forecast for Field Day on all bands...

Tom Shelton 

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