[SMCARA] Earl update

[Tom Shelton]

Hurricane Earl's predicted track from the National Hurricane Center has moved slightly to the west.  The center of the storm is predicted to stay about 250-300 to our east and will be closest to us on Friday (noon-ish, by my very non-scientific method of guessing).

We currently have a 30% chance of Tropical Storm force winds (>= 39 MPH sustained), a 10% chance of winds in excess of 50 MPH sustained, and a less than 5% chance of Hurricane force winds (>=74 MPH sustained).

We haven't dodged the bullet yet.  The predicted track is an average of many different models.  One of the models (the Navy-NOGAPS) shows the center of the storm less than 200 miles away from us.  Currently the storm has a radius of about 125 miles and is a Cat 3, and is predicted to weaken to Cat 2 by the time it gets to us.

Tom Shelton 

No electrons were harmed in the sending of this message, although several were terribly inconvenienced.
Draco Dormiens Nunquam Titillandus