[SMCARA] Fwd: Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (2).htm
En TREE why zeee YA
n3yzu at yahoo.com
Wed Sep 12 16:43:59 EDT 2007
--- unit942 <unit942 at netzero.net> wrote:
> From: "unit942" <unit942 at netzero.net>
> To: "942" <unit942 at netzero.com>
> Subject: Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
> (2).htm
> Date: Wed, 12 Sep 2007 14:55:57 -0400
>
> Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion ALL,
>
> provided is a special bullitin of weather
> information..
> the NHC has provided the information in the
> page of tropical storms outlook.
> The entire bullitin is an analysis of many
> sources by the NHC.... worthy of carefull
> reading....
>
>
>
>
> weather.gov
> >
--------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> 000
> AXNT20 KNHC 121801
> TWDAT
>
> TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
> NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
> 205 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007
>
> TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH
> AMERICA...CENTRAL
> AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN
> SEA...NORTHERN
> SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
> TO THE
> AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
> INFORMATION
> IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
> ANALYSIS...
> WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
>
> BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
> IMAGERY THROUGH
> 1745 UTC.
>
> ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
>
> SEPTEMBER IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE MOST ACTIVE MONTH
> OF THE
> TROPICAL SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THIS
> MORNING...TWO
> TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS HAVE FORMED. ONE IN THE
> NORTHWESTERN GULF
> OF MEXICO AND THE OTHER ONE WELL EAST OF THE LESSER
> ANTILLES. AT
> 12/1800 UTC TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS UPGRADED TO
> TROPICAL
> STORM HUMBERTO...THE EIGHTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2007
> ATLANTIC
> HURRICANE SEASON.
>
> THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER
> ANTILLES HAS
> ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A
> TROPICAL
> DEPRESSION...THE EIGHTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. AT
> 12/1500 UTC
> THIS SYSTEM WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 44.6W...OR ABOUT
> 980 NM EAST
> OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IT IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
> AT 10 KT.
> MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO
> 40 KT.
> SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
> HOURS AND THE
> DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
> OR TONIGHT.
> ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. SEE
> LATEST
> NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
> MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
> KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
> STRONG
> CONVECTION IS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-14N
> BETWEEN
> 44W-46W.
>
> RADAR...SATELLITE...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
> THAT THE AREA
> OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
> BECOME BETTER
> ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR
> OBSERVATIONS SHOW
> THAT THIS SYSTEM IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH
> MORE BANDING
> FEATURES. AT 12/1500 THIS SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A
> TROPICAL
> DEPRESSION STATUS. THREE HOURS LATER...IT WAS
> CLASSIFIED AS A
> TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO. AT 12/1800 HUMBERTO WAS
> CENTERED NEAR
> 28.3N 95.1W...OR ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
> GALVESTON TEXAS
> AND ABOUT 125 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
> TEXAS. IT IS
> MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
> WINDS SPEED
> IS 40 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
> CENTRAL PRESSURE
> IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
> AWIPS/WMO
> HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
> BANDS OF SHOWERS
> WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL
> CYCLONE ARE
> ALREADY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
> SW
> LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
> EXPECTED ALONG
> THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND IN EXTREME
> SOUTHWESTERN
> LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF
> 15 INCHES
> POSSIBLE.
>
> ...TROPICAL WAVES...
>
> A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLC
> ALONG 34W/35W S
> OF 24N MOVING W 15 KT. IN GENERAL...THIS WAVE HAS
> CHANGED LITTLE
> OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRUCTURE REMAINS
> WELL DEFINED
> WITH A LARGE SHIELD OF CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE
> LOW TO MID
> LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. IN ADDITION...THE UW-CIMSS TPW
> ANIMATION
> REVEALS A LARGE WWD PROPAGATING SURGE OF MOISTENED
> AIR. DESPITE
> THE FAIR STRUCTURE...DEEP MOISTURE IS MINIMAL WITH
> WIDELY
> SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
> 31W-36W.
>
> TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIB ALONG 73W S OF
> 21N MOVING
> W 15-20 KT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
> FEATURE IS
> WELL DEFINED ON THE TROPICAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
> ANIMATION FROM
> CIMSS. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW
> CURRENTLY
> LOCATED OVER E CUBA. THE WAVE IS HELPING TO INDUCE
> SOME SHOWER
> ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA.
>
> ...THE ITCZ...
> ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 14N32W 13N40W
> 10N47W 8N63W.
> WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 6N-14N EAST
> OF 25W...
> AND FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 28W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE
> TO ISOLATED
> STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NE VENEZUELA AND NW
> GUYANA. SIMILAR
> CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN APPROACHING THE WEST AFRICAN
> COAST
> LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. THE
> VERTICAL
> SOUNDING FROM DAKAR SHOWS THAT THE WAVE IS JUST
> THERE.
>
> DISCUSSION...
>
> THE GULF OF MEXICO...
> THE BIG WEATHER STORY OF THE DAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT
> OF TROPICAL
> DEPRESSION NINE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. SEE
> SPECIAL
> FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND
> THE CIMSS TPW
> PRODUCT SHOW A MOISTENED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
> ENTIRE AREA. AN
> UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO
> COVERS THE
> WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND THE N GULF WATERS WHILE
> THE BROAD
> CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER E
> CUBA
> DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH N AND NE
> UPPER LEVEL
> FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED JUST
> INLAND
> ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT
> EXPECTED TO
> PUSH VERY FAR...IF AT ALL...INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS
> TODAY
> BEFORE RETREATING AND WEAKENING. A WEAK SURFACE
> TROUGH RUNS FROM
> 27N84W TO 23N85W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE
> US...SHOWS
> SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
> EASTERN GULF...
> EAST OF 86W RELATED TO THE THIS TROUGH.
>
> THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
> THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
> UPPER LOW
> CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER ERN CUBA COVERS MOST OF THE
> WEST AND
> CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER HIGH IN THE
> TROPICAL ATLC
> DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER
> ANTILLES. THE
> EPAC ITCZ COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS
> ENHANCING
> CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
> CONVECTION
> OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING ALSO PARTS OF
> PANAMA...COSTA
> RICA AND NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL WAVE APEX EXTENDS
> FROM HAITI TO
> COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
> ARE BLOWING
> ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A SOLID ARE OF 20 TO
> 25 KT WINDS
> BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND COLOMBIA. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
> PASS
> CONFIRMED THESE WINDS.
>
> THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
> NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THE
> SUBTROPICAL
> RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WWD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
> EASTERN
> GULF. A 1023 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 32N57W.
> THE PRES
> GRADIENT IS TIGHTENED BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE
> SEMI-PERMANENT
> LOW LOCATED OVER N COLOMBIA. AS A RESULT...20-25 KT
> TRADE WINDS
> ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER 1022
> MB HIGH IS
> SITUATED NEAR 32N28W. IN BETWEEN...A WEAK SFC TROUGH
> CLIPS THE
> FORECAST AREA NEAR 30N39W.
>
> ALOFT...A DIFFLUENT PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE W
> ATLC. THE
> CONTRIBUTING LARGE SCALE FEATURES CONSIST OF A
> NORTHWESTWARD
> MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ERN CUBA...AN UPPER
> HIGH LOCATED
> NE OF BERMUDA AND AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
> CENTRAL
> ATLC. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED
> BY AN E-W
> RIDGE COVERING THE AREA E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
> WITH A MEAN
> AXIS ALONG 18N WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONES.
> THIS RIDGE
> AND A CONFLUENT PATTERN...TO THE S OF A LARGE UPPER
> LOW NEAR SRN
> PORTUGAL...IS KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY
> TRANQUIL.
>
> $$
> GR
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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