[SMCARA] FW: [Aurorawarn] MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

[A.J. Farmer]

FYI - there might be Auroras tonight or tomorrow night...

-----Original Message-----
From: aurorawarn-bounces at spacew.com [mailto:aurorawarn-bounces at spacew.com]
On Behalf Of aurorawarn at spacew.com
Sent: Friday, January 07, 2005 6:47 PM
To: aurorawarn at spacew.com
Subject: [Aurorawarn] Correction to previous Warning - 07 January

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Upgraded: 23:30 UTC on 07 January 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 08 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 08 JANUARY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 07-08 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 35, 18, 10, 10 (08 - 11 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 03-06 HOURS
                                    MINOR BELT = 06-12 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN OREGON TO NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN
   MISSOURI TO ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

   NORTHERN FRANCE TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO CENTRAL POLAND TO BELARUS TO
CENTRAL
   RUSSIA.

   NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF
   ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

     Auroral storm activity is commencing over the high and some middle
latitude regions. Moderate to strong auroral substorm activity is expected
over the middle latitudes during the next 3 to 6 hours, with additional
substorming possible thereafter. Observer are encouraged to watch the skies
tonight for possible activity.

     This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
08 January. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or allowed to
expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current
activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


**  End of Warning  **
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