[SJDXA] Propagation

Fri Jan 19 08:33:49 EST 2024

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to continue
through at least Sunday January 22nd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL

Details:

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve
other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published
five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast
are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 162 and is likely to remain
about the same through at least Sunday.

SILSO's latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 156 and is likely
to remain about the same through at least Sunday. The visible solar disk has
six medium and two tiny active regions containing 33 sunspots with a total
sunspot area of 950 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of
the Earth).
 <http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap>
www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less
severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and
geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than
during the equinox seasons.

Solar wind speed is likely to remain mildly elevated at above 400 km/second
through Sunday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through at least Sunday
with a chance of isolated unsettled to active intervals from midday Saturday
through early Sunday.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by
M-class solar flares through at least Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South
Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about
2200Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.. Short path propagation between
North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through
at least Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal through at least Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly
to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region
blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal through at least Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is
likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path
propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z
to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through at
least Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal
through at least Sunday.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter
above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between
mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation
path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief
geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa
from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern
Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z.
There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation
(TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z.
There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by
oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W,
E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance
that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via
geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP
may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening
during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms
then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO's
excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude
sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:
<http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf> http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several
hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high
speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic
storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in
a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5
nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth
directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 1 minute earlier and sunset is
25 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours
earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2
region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate's Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40
minutes after every hour at  <https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html>
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO's Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
<http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png>
www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and
2200Z at:

<http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx
-5-flux-en.php>
www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-
en.php

SWPC's Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
<https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png>
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

SWPC's four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at
<http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction>
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at 

 <https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated>
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

N0NBH's Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at

 <http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html> www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G's Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every
15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at

 <https://prop.kc2g.com> https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC's Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF
field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are
updated frequently at:

 <http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot>
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

SIDC's Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at
1230Z at
<http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/managed/services/archive/product/me
u/latest>
www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/managed/services/archive/product/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every
three hours at:

<https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/products-data/forecasts/kp-index-foreca
st>
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/products-data/forecasts/kp-index-forecas
t

SWPC's Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and
1230Z at:  <http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion>
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion 

The Australian Space Forecast Centre's Summary and Forecast is updated daily
at 2330Z at:   <http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1>
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
<http://dx.qsl.net/propagation> http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and
<https://www.solarham.net/> www.solarham.net

73!

de Bob Schenck, N2OO

President SJDXA!

GO SJDXA!

www.sjdxa.org <http://www.sjdxa.org> 

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