[SixClub] Weather & 6m Propagation [Was: ARRL RAISES VUCC DUES]

[K8RI (Roger on six)]

On 1/30/2011 9:42 PM, doc at kd4e.com wrote:
> Thanks Ryan.
>
> Any reason we should have confidence in the DNR given all that
> we have learned about government agencies here and across the
> world who were complicit in the global warming fraud?
Looking out the window?  When I used to go Pheasant hunting in the fall 
(Opening was Oct 20th) we often had 8 or 10 inches of snow. Now we 
rarely see snow until around the first part of December.  The last big 
snowstorm we had was in the winter of 84 or 85 when we moved down here 
from the Farwell area.

I'm old enough to have seen a marked shortening of the winters during my 
life.

I have a series of photos I shot out the front window of our country 
home South of Breckenridge MI back in the early 70's.  That area is 
flat, not flat like the great planes but really flat.  A glass of water 
would cover 40 acres if it didn't soak in first.  At any rate, out in 
this flat country, in the last photo, only the center of the top of my 
wife's Cevrolet is visible sticking up out of the snow. That's when cars 
were "big".  The county used to plow out road with two "V plows. (one 
pushing the other.)  Often they would go until they could go no farther. 
Then the back plow would pull out the one in front that was stuck.  
They'd back up, get a running start and eventually make it through.  It 
would some times take a half hour just to get by my folks place.

If I can find them I have some slides of the snow (at my folks place) 
drifted up onto the roof of the one barn.  That would have been around 
20 feet.  Our driveways were like canyons with 4 or 5 feet of snow on 
each side.

Since we've lived here (moved here in Sept 84) we only had the one large 
snow storm where the drifts made it close to 4 or 5 feet. OTOH I was 
able to drive my Wife's little Toyota the 18 miles to work that day.   
Most of the time I drove a corvette engined Trans Am.  That thing with 
those big "Gatorbacks" would get stuck on a heavy frost.  Yes, I now 
drive a 4WD but the only time I've ever needed it was getting around the 
hangars at the airport where the snow tends to drift due to the hangars 
around this large open area and the snow gets plowed back from the taxiways.
>   >  Ryan Lughermo wrote:
>   >  DNR=Department of Natural Resources
>   >  Ryan KB8RCR
>
> I grew up in the north and remember (and my folks have photos)
> of huge piles of snow ... that was the 60's ... the pop-science
> types were predicting an ice age.
>
> Then things cyclically warmed some, same cycle as forever, and
> Al Gore and his cult-followers started the global warming Chicken
> Little hysteria ... but now the cycle has returned and it is
> cooling.
True, the climate is cyclical but it tends to follow the "Milankovitch 
Cycles"
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html which are roughly 
22,000, 100,000 and 400,000 years.
To quote from my studies:
*"Few using scientific principles would deny that the earth has gone 
through many cycles of warming and cooling (glaciation)  throughout it's 
existence. Although the reasons are complex the main underlying cause 
seems to be variations of the earth's orbit referred to as * 
*Milankovitch **Cycles* 
<http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html>*,  or at least it has 
in the past. The effect is greatest when the three elements of the 
Milankovitch cycles coincide. These are the tilt of the earth's axis 
which varies from 21.1 to 24.5 degrees over a period of about 41,000 
years. The eccentricity of the earth's orbit varies from nearly circular 
to oval over periods of 100,000 and 400,000 years which are believed to 
be caused by Jupiter and Saturn. A third component is the "Precession of 
the equinoxes" and occurs on a 22,000 year cycle. "The closest approach 
of the earth to the sun is called perihelion, and it now occurs in 
January (January 6th), making northern hemisphere winters slightly 
milder. This change in timing of perihelion is known as the precession 
of the equinoxes, and occurs on a period of 22,000 years. 11,000 years 
ago, perihelion occurred in July, making the seasons more severe than 
today. (Hotter summers and colder winters) The "roundness", or 
eccentricity, of the earth's orbit varies on cycles of 100,000 and 
400,000 years, and this affects how important the timing of perihelion 
is to the strength of the seasons. The combination of the 41,000 year 
tilt cycle and the 22,000 year precession cycles, plus the smaller 
eccentricity signal, affect the relative severity of summer and winter, 
and are thought to control the growth and retreat of ice sheets." *

There is no indication that we are in a cooling cycle although we should 
be in a very gradual one but apparently not with the 9 warmest years on 
record since 2000,  only one of weather extremes.  Weather has become 
quite variable between hot and cold, wet and dry, stormy and calm. It's 
likely we will see more weather variations. Even with the present storms 
and cold the only place on earth showing a decline in average temp last 
year was Northern Europe/Siberia. Look at whats going on in Australia 
the past several summers.

As for the sun's input, what we see in "evaporation pan rates" indicates 
a decline in the sun's energy reaching the surface. (most likely due to 
pollution)

> It's somehow hard for them to understand that the cycle moves
> north and south and east and west and is not locked in place.
But it takes place in tens of thousands of years or even hundreds of 
thousands.
> Or so many experts now have "discovered" ... the rest of us just
> looked out our windows and knew ...
What we see is weather. Climate is measured on a 30 year running average.

73

Roger (K8RI)
>   >  KA2AEV at aol.com wrote:
>   >  Ahemmm
>   >  Global Warming my sweet
>