[SixClub] AURORAL WARNING MIDDLE LATITUDE

Sun Sep 11 17:51:49 EDT 2005

The AU propagation started around 3:30EDT  (1930Z) into EN73 (Central 
Michigan) this afternoon
and is still going strong.  SSB is difficult to understand and signals are 
only running about S-3, but I'm hearing lots and seeing lots of them on the 
scope.  Of course there are many that I can hear that neither show on the 
scope or S-meter.

There are a group in the CW band and then a whole bunch grouped from about 
50.11 to about 50.160.

Roger Halstead (K8RI and ARRL 40 year Life Member)
N833R - World's oldest Debonair CD-2
www.rogerhalstead.com

> =================================================================
> This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
> =================================================================
>
> A s t r o A l e r t
>
> 11 September 2005
>
> Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
> www.spacew.com
>
>
> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING - 11-14 SEPTEMBER
>
>     A middle latitude auroral activity warning has been issued for the 
> next
> several days. Intense solar flare activity continues. The associated high
> velocity coronal mass ejections are beginning to become more heavily
> directed
> toward the Earth. Several smaller impacts were observed over the last 24 
> to
> 48 hours from solar activity that occurred when sunspot complex 10808 was 
> on
> the eastern limb of the Sun. But now, the region has rotated sufficiently
> far
> to produce stronger Earthward-directed impacts.
>
>     The latest impact was observed near 01:19 UTC on 11 September (9:19 pm
> EDT on 10 September). This disturbance has the potential to produce 
> periods
> of minor to major auroral storm conditions during the next 12 to 24 hours.
> Combining this disturbance with several others that are anticipated during
> the next 48 hours may result in a more volatile mixture of space weather
> conditions, perhaps capable of producing significant auroral storm 
> activity
> during the next week. Observers across the United States and Europe (even
> toward the lower latitudes of the central/southern states) may spot 
> periods
> of activity during the next week.
>
>     Active sunspot Region 10808 remains exceptionally complex and 
> volatile.
> It has produced two X-class flares within the last 12 hours (the largest
> being a class X2.1 event at 22:11 UTC (6:11 pm EDT) on 10 September.
> Additional strong X-class flares are expected in the coming days. With 
> each
> passing day, the trajectory of the ejected mass from these events will
> impact
> the Earth more directly, resulting in greater opportunities for observers 
> to
> spot auroral activity.
>
>     The official auroral activity warning statement is appended below. 
> Note
> the statement indicating there is a good chance the warning may be 
> extended
> beyond the 14 September deadline.
>
>
> MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
> Issued: 01:45 UTC on 11 September 2005
> Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
> www.spacew.com
>
>
> VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
> VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 14 SEPTEMBER
>
> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11-13 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
> MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11-14 SEPTEMBER
>
> PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 40, 40, 20 (11 - 14 SEPTEMBER)
>
> POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH
>
> POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24-72 HOURS
>                                    MINOR BELT = 72-96 HOURS
>
> ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
>
> EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
>
> OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD
>
> AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
>
>   OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO
>   NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
>
> ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>   (THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
>
>   CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH
>   REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
>
>   NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT 
> PERIODS
>   OF ACTIVITY.
>
> SYNOPSIS...
>
>     A series of coronal mass ejections have been directed partially
> Earthward over the last few days. The Earth is beginning to observe 
> impacts
> from some of the stronger events. Periods of intensifying auroral activity
> will be observed during the next several days. The first of the larger
> impacts occurred near 01:19 UTC on 11 September and is expected to produce
> periods of minor to major auroral storm conditions, sporadically during 
> the
> next 12 to 18 hours. Additional strong impacts are expected over the next
> several days. Some of these disturbances are cannibalizing other CME's, 
> and
> as a result, the potential geoeffectiveness will likely be complex and
> difficult to accurately predict. Nevertheless, the potential exists for
> periods of strong auroral storm conditions developing during the next
> several
> days (at least). Near-continuous storm-level activity is possible during 
> the
> next week, if sunspot complex 10808 continues to impress with energetic
> flare
> activity.
>
>     This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on
> 14 September, with a good chance that it will be extended beyond the 14th.
> It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For updated
> information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
> plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
>
>           PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
>                 http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
>
>
> **  End of AstroAlert  **
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> ==================================================================
>
> Regards,
> The SIX METER WORLD WIDE CLUB team
> Jerry W9FS
> Six Club Director, SC# 66
>
> Jerry N4AVM
> Contest Director
> (contests at 6mt.com)
>
> Chris KC9CAU
> Awards/Certificate Director
> (awards at 6mt.com)
>
>
>
>
>
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