[SixClub] Expect RADIO AURORA MODE PROPAGATION

[KC9ECI at wmconnect.com]

On January 14, 2005, there was a small solar flare
that was located on the solar central meridian.  
The associated plasma that was ejected, directed 
squarely toward Earth, will arrive simultaneously 
with an already elevated solar wind stream.  It is
expected that the geomagnetic activity will become
highly active, perhaps reaching major storm 
levels.  This will trigger Aurora at least in the 
high latitudes, but possibly along the middle 
latitudes, starting during the night of January 15
through January 16.

I've posted a list of the flares of 14 January 
through the start of 15 January, 2005 (up to the 
writing of this message, which is 0510 UTC 15 
January 2005) at 
http://hfradio.org/forums/viewtopic.php?p=521#521

So far, records show that sunspot group 0720 has 
spawned 36 X-ray Flares. An additional flare from 
sunspot group 0719 occurred, making the number of
flares since the start of January 14 a total of 
37!  Thirty-six flares already from this giant 
sunspot group!

Six of them were M-class flares.  One, peaking at
0043 UTC, 15 January 2005, was a level X1.2 in 
size!  The latest was an M5.9.  There are more on
the way (one is occurring as I write this).

This of course is causing Radio Blackouts on the 
sunlit side of Earth.  It will generate 
geomagnetic storms due to the likely coronal mass
ejections heading our way, which in turn will 
lower the Maximum Usable Frequencies over most 
paths by as much as 30 percent.

We're in for interesting times.  The Flux is 
rising, and will spawn propagation on higher 
bands.  Visual Aurora is very likely, as well, 
due to coronal plasma ejections and an enhanced 
solar wind stream.  Expect RADIO AURORA MODE 
PROPAGATION starting late 15 January 2005, 
onward.

Another memorable moment in Cycle 23.

73, de NW7US
http://propagation.hfradio.org/


Tom
KC9ECI