[SixClub] ASTRO ALERT possible aurora

Thu, 26 Feb 2004 10:48:29 -0500

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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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                           A s t r o  A l e r t
                              Sun-Earth Alert

                         Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                           http://www.spacew.com

                              26 February 2004

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE ALERT

    A major solar flare has been observed from the sunspot complex known as
Region 564. This sunspot complex is large enough to be seen with the unaided
(but protected!) eye. It is currently slightly west of the central solar
meridian and will not rotate behind the western limb of the Sun and out of
view for approximately another 6 days. It's persisting growth also bodes well
for possible periods of enhanced northern lights activity over the coming
week.

    Today's major class X1.1 solar flare occurred at 02:03 UTC on 26
February. It was not a particularly spectacular event, but its position is
excellent for ejecting mass toward the Earth. The Earth stands a good chance
to see a minor coronal mass ejection impact within the next 2 to 4 days. An
accurate assessment is not yet possible due to an inadequate amount of
available data. Once additional data has been received, forecasts will start
appearing on the various web sites (www.sec.noaa.gov, www.spacew.com, etc).
The likelihood of a large impact capable of producing significant auroral
activity is fairly low. Nevertheless, a middle latitude aurora watch will
probably be issued within the next 24 hours (don't expect any enhanced
auroral activity from this event within the next 36 to 48 hours). If a watch
is issued, another Astroalert will likewise be sent out.

    Sunspot complex 564 may be capable of supporting an additional major
solar flare.

**  End of the AstroAlert Bulletin  **
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