[SixClub] A s t r o A l e r t (AURORA ALERT)

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This  Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth  Interactions
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A s t r o  A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert

Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com

04 December  2004


MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH - 04-06 December

A  minor (but vigorous) solar flare was observed on 03 December that will
impact  the Earth and enhance levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity.  The
disturbance is strongly Earthward directed and has the potential to  produce
periods of moderate to brief strong auroral activity when it arrives.  It
should arrive in the early UTC hours of 05 December (this is equivalent  to
the very late evening hours of 04 December over North America - late  Saturday
or early Sunday morning). It should last approximately 12 to 18  hours after
it arrives. The official watch statement is included  below.


MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 05:50 UTC,  04 December 2004
Solar Terrestrial  Dispatch
www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 18:00 UTC (7 pm EST)  04 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 06 DECEMBER

HIGH RISK  PERIOD: 05 DECEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04-06 DECEMBER

PREDICTED  ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 40, 20, 18 (04 - 07 DECEMBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE  OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS  ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING  CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  LOW - MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE  LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY  NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN  IDAHO TO WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO ILLINOIS
TO OHIO TO  NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED  APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

ENGLAND TO  NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

ACTIVITY *MAY*  ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...

NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHERN  AUSTRALIA.


SYNOPSIS...

An earthward  directed coronal mass ejection is expected to increase
levels of auroral  activity early in the UTC day of 05 December (very late
evening hours of  Saturday night or very early morning hours of Sunday
morning over North  America). Activity has the potential to become
sporadically strong over  isolated regions. Observations from locations
equatorward of the lines noted  above are also possible in isolated regions.
Observers are encouraged to  watch the skies over the next few nights for
possible northern lights  activity.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00  UTC (6 pm EST) on
06 December. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated  information,
visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time  plots of
current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html  or
www.sec.noaa.gov.

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


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