|
SB PROP @ ARL
$ARLP002
ARLP002 The
ARRL Solar
Report
ZCZC AP02
QST de W1AW
Propagation
Forecast
Bulletin 2
ARLP002
From ARRL
Headquarters
Newington, CT
January 9,
2026
To all radio
amateurs
SB PROP ARL
ARLP002
ARLP002 The
ARRL Solar
Report
Geomagnetic
field activity
is likely to
reach G1
(Minor)
geomagnetic
storm levels
on January 13
and 14, and
then from
January 17 to
20.
Unsettled
levels are
likely on
January 12,
and then from
January 21 and
22. All
enhancements
in geomagnetic
activity are
due to the
anticipated
influence of
multiple,
recurrent
coronal holes.
The remainder
of the outlook
period is
expected to be
mostly quiet.
A tracking
model from
NOAA/SWPC
shows a
Coronal Mass
Ejection (CME)
could pass
close to Earth
by January 11.
Multiple faint
coronal mass
ejections were
observed off
the SE limb
originating
from Region
4334. However,
modeling
appeared to
show no
Earth-directed
component.
Solar activity
is expected to
be low with a
chance (45
percent) for
M-class flares
(R1-R2,
minor-moderate),
and a slight
chance (10
percent) for
isolated
X-class flares
(R3-strong)
until January
10.
Solar wind
parameters
became mildly
enhanced after
January 7.
However,
Coronal Hole
High Speed
Stream (CH
HSS) influence
is expected to
persist
through
January 10.
Unsettled to
active
conditions are
expected to
continue on
January 10 and
11 as the
coronal hole
moves further
into a
geo-effective
position,
along with the
possible
arrival of
CMEs that left
the Sun on
January 8,
with a chance
for isolated
G1 (Minor)
storm
conditions
late on
January 10.
Weekly
Commentary on
the Sun, the
Magnetosphere,
and the
Earth's
Ionosphere,
January 8,
2026, by F. K.
Janda, OK1HH:
"According to
the original
forecast,
solar activity
was expected
to gradually
decline until
mid-January.
However, an
active region,
AR4336,
emerged in the
southeast of
the solar
disk, in a
location where
nothing
unusual had
occurred
during the
previous solar
rotation.
As a result,
overall solar
activity is
already
beginning to
increase.
"Other
formations
important for
the forecast
are coronal
holes No.
12 and 13,
whose
proximity to
active regions
will cause an
intensification of the solar wind.
Its effects
will be felt
in the Earth's
magnetosphere
and ionosphere
since January
9, when the
shorter
disturbance is
expected.
This will be
followed by a
brief lull and
a renewed
increase in
geomagnetic
activity
before
mid-January.
"The forecast
for the coming
days is very
uncertain.
If the
situation from
the last solar
rotation
repeats
itself, solar
activity could
continue to
increase since
mid-January,
while the days
of January
15-18 could be
geomagnetically active or even disturbed.
However, it
seems that a
reliable
forecast
cannot be made
at this time."
The Predicted
Planetary A
Index for
January 10 to
16 is 8, 5,
10, 15, 15, 5,
and 5, with a
mean of 9.
Predicted
Planetary K
Index is 3, 2,
3, 5, 5, 2,
and 2, with a
mean of 3.1.
10.7-centimeter
flux is 135,
130, 135, 135,
140, 145, and
145, with a
mean of 137.9.
For more
information
concerning
shortwave
radio
propagation,
see www.arrl.org/propagation
and the ARRL
Technical
Information
Service web
page at www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an
explanation of
numbers used
in this
bulletin, see
www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
Information
and tutorials
on propagation
can be found
at http://k9la.us.
NNNN
/EX
|
