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SB PROP @ ARL
$ARLP025
ARLP025
Propagation de
K7RA
ZCZC
AP25
QST
de W1AW
Propagation
Forecast
Bulletin 25
ARLP025
From
Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle,
WA July 5,
2024
To
all radio
amateurs
SB
PROP ARL
ARLP025
ARLP025
Propagation de
K7RA
Solar
activity
increased this
week, with
average daily
sunspot
numbers rising
from 149.6 to
181.6. For
some reason
average daily
solar flux
decreased from
178 to 175.
Seven
new sunspot
groups emerged
this week, one
on June 27,
two on June
28, three on
June 29, and
one more on
July 3.
Average
daily
planetary
index rose
from 10.3 to
15.6 while
average middle
latitude A
index rose
from 10.1 to
11.6.
On
Friday, June
28, a CME
caused a
severe G4
class
geomagnetic
storm. Middle
latitude A
index was 32
and planetary
A index was
59, much
higher than
Alaska's
college A
index (36).
Predicted
solar flux is
175, 172 and
168 on July 5
to 7, 160 on
July 8 and 9,
155 on July 10
and 11, 170 on
July 12 and
13, 180 on
July 14, 175
on July 15 to
17, 180 on
July 18 to 21,
185 on July
22, 180 on
July 23 to 29,
175 on July
30, 170 on
July 31
through August
9 and 180 on
August 10.
Predicted
planetary A
index is 8, 5,
5, 12 and 10
on July 5 to
9, 5 on July
10 to 13, then
10, 10 and 8
on July 14 to
16, 5 on July
17 to 19, then
10 and 8 on
July 20 and
21, and 5 on
July 22
through August
9, and 10 on
August 10 and
11.
"Geomagnetic
activity
forecast for
July 5 to 11,
2024
Quiet:
July 5 to 7, 9
and 10
Unsettled:
July 7 and 8,
11
Active:
possible July
8, 11
Minor
storm: 0
Major
storm: 0
Severe
storm: 0
"Next
week, we
expect at most
quiet to
unsettled
conditions.
More unsettled
conditions
with possible
isolated
active event
are possible
about July 7
and 8, and
also at the
end of the
current
forecast
period, about
Thursday, July
11." Tomas
Bayer RWC
Prague
Institute
of Geophysics
of the ASCR
Department of
Geomagnetism
Budkov
Observatory
2023
NOAA updates:
www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update
https://bit.ly/3XRnufb
https://bit.ly/3VT7net
Latest
from Tamitha
Skov, KX6SWW:
https://youtu.be/kGUb15uWzBw
Blackout:
https://bit.ly/45R9PqD
Send
your tips,
reports,
observations,
questions
and comments
to [email protected].
When reporting
observations,
don't forget
to tell us
which mode you
were
operating.
For
more
information
concerning
shortwave
radio
propagation,
see www.arrl.org/propagation
and the ARRL
Technical
Information
Service web
page at, www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For
an explanation
of numbers
used in this
bulletin, see
wwww.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An archive of
past
propagation
bulletins is
at
www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-
propagation.
More
good
information
and tutorials
on propagation
are at http://k9la.us
Also,
check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
Instructions
for starting
or ending
email
distribution
of ARRL
bulletins are
at www.arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot
numbers for
June 27
through July 3
2024 were 146,
162, 205, 192,
192, 192, and
182, with a
mean of 181.6.
10.7 cm flux
was 182.5,
180.7, 186.4,
173.8, 170.6,
163.8, and
167.4, with a
mean of 175.
Estimated
planetary A
indices were
9, 59, 14, 11,
6, 5, and 5,
with
a mean of
15.6. Middle
latitude A
index was 11,
32, 11, 10, 5,
6, and 6, with
a mean of
11.6.
NNNN
/EX
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