SB PROP @ ARL
$ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP43
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43
ARLP043
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 28, 2022
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA
Sunspot activity seems listless.
Average daily sunspot numbers went
from 57.3 to 58.4 (see note at
the end of the bulletin concerning
last week's averages) while solar
flux went from 119.6 to 113.2.
On Thursday, the day after the
reporting week ended, the sunspot
number was 72, over 13 points
above the previous 7 day average.
Perhaps this is a promising sign.
The middle latitude geomagnetic
numbers this week are wrong. See
what I mean:
https://bit.ly/3W7nCnB
I emailed a contact at NOAA about
this, and here is the reply:
"Mid lat numbers are absolutely
NOT correct.
"Fredericksburg magnetometer is
undergoing maintenance this week and
has been flaky. I've alerted the
individual acting in my absence as
well as our developers to see if
we can get that cleaned up."
So, the middle latitude numbers
presented here at the end of the
bulletin are my own very rough
estimates, trying to correlate with
the high latitude and planetary
numbers. My NOAA contact emailed me
the data from the Boulder
magnetometer, which can be used in lieu of
the Fredericksburg data, and he
noted that my estimates were not far
off.
Here is what he sent me:
A index (Boulder) 7, 4, 22,
13, 6, 5, 4 with a mean of 8.7
A index (K7RA estimate) 5, 4, 24,
15, 7, 5, 4 with a mean of 9.1
Average daily planetary A index
went from 18.6 to 10.4, and middle
latitude numbers from 8.1 to 9.1.
Predicted solar flux is 125 on
October 28 to November 3, 112 on
November 4-5, 118 on November
6-9, 115 on November 10-12, 112 on
November 13-14, 110 on November
15, 108 on November 16-18, 104 on
November 19, 100 on November
20-23, 98 on November 24-25, 100 on
November 26, then 105 on November
27-28, 110 on November 29, 112 on
November 30 through December 2,
and 118 on December 3-6.
The rise in solar flux in the
first week in November to 160
presented in the previous two
bulletins is gone from the current
prediction. But this Thursday
solar flux forecast is more optimistic
for the near term than the
Wednesday forecast in yesterday's ARRL
Letter.
Predicted planetary A index is 8,
18, 22, 15, 12, 10 and 8 on
October 28 through November 3, 5
on November 4-9, then 18, 18 and 15
on November 10-12, 5 on November
13-17, then 25, 18, 17 and 12 on
November 18-21, 5 on November
22-23, then 8, 15 and 20 on November
24-26, then 15, 15 and 12 on
November 27-29, and 5 on November 30
through December 6.
From F. K. Janda, OK1HH:
"Not much happened on the Sun
over the past few days from the point
of view of a terrestrial
observer. Overall activity was low. Of
note, the co-rotating interaction
region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic
field on October 22, sparking a
G1-class geomagnetic storm and
bright auroras around the Arctic
Circle.
"Earth's magnetic field calmed
down and active sunspot regions began
to sink beyond the southwestern
edge of the solar disk, while others
emerged in the northeast.
"Although helioseismic maps
revealed interesting activity on the
Sun's far side, this will likely
end before it emerges on the
eastern edge of the solar disk."
Scott, N7KQ in Fort Meyers,
Florida wrote:
"I wish I had sent this earlier.
I worked Japan twice lately on 10
meters from Southwest Florida.
Once on October 12th (JM7OLW) and on
October 18th (JA1KIH) using an
indoor dipole above the garage at 14
feet. Both were weak but 100%
copy. They both reported the same for
my signal. These contacts were
CW, and I run 500 watts."
10 meters has been much better
lately, and for Scott, working
stations in Japan is more
difficult than for me in Seattle, where we
have always had a pipeline to
Japan. His path length is about 7,000
miles, while mine is only about
5000 miles, and I recall during past
sunspot cycle peaks calling CQ
running barefoot into a low dipole
produced huge pileups of JA
signals.
My own 10 meter CW beacon
(K7RA/B, 28.2833 MHz) has been getting
more reports lately. A couple of
listeners even mailed QSL cards.
Thanks to Darrel, AA7FV for a tip
that led me to a news item about a
gamma ray burst.
Be sure to visit Spaceweather.com
and using the archives feature in
the upper right corner, go to
October 18 to read about the October 9
gamma ray burst, and the amateur
astronomer who detected it using an
unusual VLF antenna.
This burst of energy happened 2.4
billion years ago and took that
long to reach us.
Here is what stage Earth was in
at that time:
https://bit.ly/3znjztv
More info on the event:
https://bit.ly/3FwRZOi
Here is a link to Darrel's own
data, labeled Agua Caliente:
https://stanford.io/3U5i0IU
Did you know there is crowd
sourced geomagnetic data, using smart
phones? You can participate:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/crowdmag-magnetic-data
Here is a Forbes article on
doomsday flares:
https://bit.ly/3W8IJpy
Some tabloid news on flares:
https://bit.ly/3gLn1YL
Something even worse than a
Carrington Event?
https://bit.ly/3zo5SdR
In last week's Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP042 the averages
were wrong.
The correct averages for the
numbers at the end of the bulletin in
ARLP042 were 57.3, 119.6, 10.6
and 8.1 for sunspot number, solar
flux, planetary A index and
middle latitude A index respectively.
The wrong numbers were actually
from the previous week.
Send your tips, reports,
observations, questions, and comments to
[email protected].
For more information concerning
shortwave radio propagation, see
http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL
Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in
this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .
An archive of past propagation
bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on
propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .
Instructions for starting or
ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
Sunspot numbers for October 20
through 26, 2022 were 33, 60, 55, 65,
46, 72, and 78, with a mean of
58.4. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 109.4,
105, 108.4, 114.8, 116.3, and
122.4, with a mean of 113.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 5,
27, 16, 8, 5, and 5, with a mean of
10.4. Middle latitude A index was
5, 4, 24, 15, 7, 5, and 4, with a
mean of 9.1.
NNNN
/EX