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A crucial, final leg of the process to decide Bougainvillea's future political status has begun, but uncertainty remains over how it willplay out.

Representatives of Papua New Guinea and Bougainville heldtalks this week in Port Moresby over the future of the autonomous region'spolitical status, and agreed that the issue will be taken to the PNG nationalparliament by June next year for deliberations on a final decision.

This week's meeting of the Joint Supervisory Body (JSB) wasthe latest in a series of discussions over implementation of the processfollowing Bougainville's 2019 independence referendum. The non-bindingreferendum resulted in an overwhelming vote for independence, but ultimately itis up to PNG's parliament to decide whether to ratify the result.

Concerns in Bougainville that PNG's leaders were draggingthe chain on whether, and when, to ratify the result were allayed somewhat thisweek with the JSB's resolution, as announced by PNG Prime Minister JamesMarape.

"We are in the final leg in which the referendum resultwill go to parliament. We put a clear roadmap for the first six months of nextyear," Marape explained.

Speakers and clerks from both the PNG and Bougainvilleparliaments will establish a secessional order to map out the formal processahead.

"The technical specifications of the secessional orderas well as what happens on the floor of parliament will be defined properly inthe next three months. We anticipate that before the first half of 2026 haslapsed, parliament - possibly in the second sitting - would receive anddeliberate on the result," Marape said.
 
Nationwide consultations

This week's JSB meeting was the first since a PNGParliamentary Bipartisan Committee concluded nationwide consultations onBougainville's political future. The committee's findings will assist with theMPs' deliberations.

One of the Committee members, Sir Puka Temu, said there wasa range of views on the issue, but noted people in other parts of PNG were opento the idea of Bougainvilleans becoming independent.

"When we went to Morobe, one of the biggest provincesin the country, the leaders came out and said 'give them independence'. When wewent to East New Britain, they said 'give them independence but give usautonomy'," he said, while adding that national leaders in PNG aresensitive about setting a precedent for other parts of the country wishing tobreak away.

Sir Puka said the two governments have been adhering the MelanesianAgreement reached between PNG and Bougainville in New Zealand in June thisyear, in which both governments resolved "to craft and pursue a clearpolitical pathway forward" on the referendum result as part of theBougainville Peace Agreement.

However, he admitted that questions remain about the exactmethod by which PNG's parliament will decide on the ratification.

"And that's where the secessional order designed by thetwo speakers may clarify whether we vote or not, and if we vote is it a simplemajority or a two-thirds absolute majority like we do with constitutionalamendments."

Sir Puka also said questions remain about what follows thevote.

"If parliament says yes, how do we manage the processtowards independence? Because Bougainville hasn’t got the institutionalcapacity or economy capacity to be given independence straight away."

Lingering tensions

The latest talks took place amid lingering tensions betweenthe Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) and PNG's national government,with President Ishmael Toroama telling Marape and others at the meeting abouthis concern that JSB resolutions were being rendered irrelevant.

He cited the example of the channelling of Restoration andDevelopment Funds intended for Bougainville - around 100 million kina a year(approx. NZ$40m) - through the MP representing the region in the PNG nationalparliament, rather than directly to the ABG.

"It is therefore deeply concerning that in this matter,though initiated by the ABG through the courts, the Regional Member forBougainville and your state Minister has chosen to actively defend against theimplementation of JSB-endorsed decisions on this funding," Toroama said.

"His public statements that the JSB Resolutions doesnot change the law, reflects a total disregard for the sanctity andconstitutionality of the JSB as the legitimate body from which the PrimeMinister's Commitment funds originate. Such actions risk undermining the JSB'sauthority. This is very dangerous and has the potential to be perilous to thepeace process and to the constitutionality of the JSB itself."

Toroama even warned that if the JSB continued to besidelined, it could imperil PNG national elections elections taking place inBougainville in 2027.

"I will state here that whilst national MPs fromBougainville may want to use any and all state resources at their disposal inpreparation for the 2027 elections, let me go on record here and plainly statethat there may not be national elections on Bougainville in 2027."

But the JSB talks this week resolved this funding issue, SirPuka said, with Marape assuring that the funds would now be freed up to godirect to the ABG as agreed.

Sources close to the ABG also confirmed to RNZ Pacific thatthe leadership was satisfied with PNG's response to the president's concernsand the outcome of the JSB meeting, that PNG's parliament will be ready to theratification decision by June next year.

However, the question of whether PNG approves ofBougainville's independence remains very much open. But for Bougainvilleans,the question shouldn't be delayed any more.

The need for a decision to happen before the end of thecurrent parliament was underlined by Sir Puka who admitted that as new, youngerMPs enter parliament there will be less institutional memory of theBougainville crisis, its civil war and all the relevant history leading up tothe peace process. Even among the current batch of MPs, there are gaps inknowledge of the unique context of Bougainville.

Sir Puka said a booklet was being prepared as an educationaltool to raise awareness among the MPs about Bougainville’s history, in order toensure there is informed decision-making on the major question that thenational parliament is to address.

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