[SFDXA] ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA


	

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046

ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP46

QST de W1AW

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA December 2, 2024

To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP046

ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

ARRL Headquarters was closed on November 29. So, this regular Friday 
bulletin was moved to the following Monday (12/2).

Solar activity increased during the current reporting week, November 
21-27. Average daily sunspot number rose to 155.7, and average daily 
solar flux was 282.2.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's 
Ionosphere - November 28, 2024, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"After the unexpected solar proton flare of 21 November, which took 
place beyond the Sun's western limb, a rain of higher-energy protons hit 
the Earth's atmosphere. This solar radiation storm had a greater impact 
at higher latitudes in the southern hemisphere, where it caused a 
significant increase in attenuation.

"Two days later, two new large sunspot groups appeared near the 
southeastern limb of the Sun. These produced moderate eruptions daily, 
which is more or less normal for the 11-year maximum. These are AR3905 
and AR3906, which have grown rapidly to a size where they can be 
observed with the naked eye. There is a relatively small coronal hole 
near them that could be influencing the solar wind enhancement.

"Following the eruption of a plasma filament near AR3901, a G2 class 
geomagnetic storm is possible on November 28-29, when a CME is expected 
to impact. However, around 1900 UT on November 28, when this information 
is written as usual, nothing is still happening. We will see what 
happens next. It is quite possible that the plasma cloud will only hit 
the Earth a little and it is also not out of the question that it will 
miss the Earth completely. So, any prediction at this point has a low 
probability of coming true."

New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/1P4sCwn8TZI 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMjAyMDI3JnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNjA2NTQ0Mg/index.html>

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to 
k7ra at arrl.net <mailto:k7ra at arrl.net>. When reporting observations, don't 
forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see 
www.arrl.org/propagation 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMjAyMDI3JnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNjA2NTQ0Mw/index.html> 
and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, 
www.arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMjAyMDI3JnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNjA2NTQ0NA/index.html>. 
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see 
www.arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMjAyMDI3JnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNjA2NTQ0NQ/index.html>.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at 
www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMjAyMDI3JnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNjA2NTQ0Ng/index.html>. 
More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMjAyMDI3JnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNjA2NTQ0Nw/index.html>.

Also, check this article, "Understanding Solar Indices" from September 
2002 QST.

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMjAyMDI3JnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNjA2NTQ0OQ/index.html>

Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL 
bulletins are at www.arrl.org/bulletins 
<https://arrl.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT0zMjAyMDI3JnA9MSZ1PTUyNTQ3MzY2NCZsaT0zNjA2NTQ1MA/index.html>.

Sunspot numbers for November 21 through 27, 2024 were 148, 170, 156, 
164, 140, 163, and 141, with a mean of 155.7. 10.7 cm flux was 166.2, 
179.1, 199.9, 202.7, 220.4, 222.3, and 225, with a mean of 202.2. 
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 12, 8, 7, 11, 7, and 5, with a 
mean of 8.3. Middle latitude A Index was 5, 10, 7, 7, 9, 6, and 3, with 
a mean of 6.7.

NNNN

/EX

	


	

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