[SFDXA] STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH

[Bill]

*STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH:*NOAA has upgraded their forecast for 
the next geomagnetic storm fromG2 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g2.jpg>(Moderate) toG3 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g3.jpg>(Strong). The storm is 
expected to begin late on*May 7th*, when an incoming CME strikes, 
intensifying on*May 8th*as Earth passes through the CME's magnetized 
wake.*Aurora alerts:*SMS Text <https://spaceweatheralerts.com/>.

*THE INCOMING CME:*Athree-day outburst 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/05may23/3days.jpg>of M-class solar 
flares on May 3rd, 4th and 5th, hurledso many CMEs 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/05may23/may5th_cmes.gif>into space 
that analysts had trouble sorting them out. NOAA has determined that at 
least one is heading for Earth. Click to play their animated forecast model:

<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/06may23/noaamodel.gif>

If this model is correct, the CME will hit Earth's magnetic field on May 
7th around 2100 UT. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms ranging in 
intensity from minor (G1 <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g1.jpg>) to 
moderate (G2 <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g2.jpg>) and maybe even 
strong (G3 <https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g3.jpg>). An unrelated 
stream of solar wind might also contribute to the geomagnetic activity. 
During G3-class storms, auroras have been sighted in the USA as far 
south as Illinois and Oregon.*Aurora alerts:*SMS Text 
<https://spaceweatheralerts.com/>.

*Update:*This NOAA model replacesan earlier one 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2023/05may23/noamodel.gif>which had the 
CME arriving on May 8th at 1800 UT. The difference between the two 
models gives a sense of the uncertainty in the CME's predicted arrival 
time. Aurora chasers should be prepared for an impact on either May 7th 
or 8th.


SpaceWeather.com
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