[SFDXA] ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Mar 17 13:02:43 EDT 2023

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP011
> ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP11
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11  ARLP011
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  March 17, 2023
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP011
> ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, two on March 9,
> another on March 10, one more on March 12, and another two on March
> 14.
> 
> Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined this week.
> 
> Average daily sunspot numbers softened from 143.6 to 118.7, and
> average daily solar flux from 181.6 to 153.6.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 135, 140, 138, and 135 on March 17-20, then
> 132, 132 and 130 on March 21-23, 155 on March 24-26, 150 on March
> 27-28, 145 on March 29-30, then 140, 145, 150, 155, and 160 on March
> 31 through April 4, 165 on April 5-8, 170 on April 9-11, then 175,
> 180, 180, 175, 170 and 165 on April 12-17, 160 on April 18-19, 155
> on April 20-21, then 140, 150, 150 and 145 on April 22-25.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 5, 12 and 8 on March 17-21,
> then 5, 5, 12, 16 and 26 on March 22-26, then 18, 10, 8, 24 and 22
> on March 27-31, then 16 on April 1-2, then 14, 12, 8 and 10 on April
> 3-6, 8 on April 7-8, then 5, 8, 22 and 8 on April 9-12, 5 on April
> 13-14, then 8 and 16 on April 15-16, 5 on April 17-19, then 12, 16,
> 26 and 18 on April 20-23.
> 
> Check out this propagation modeling site, sent from WB6MPH.
> 
> https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
> 
> Jon, N0JK wrote:
> 
> "On March 15 there was a CME impact. The Kp peaked at 6. 6 meters
> opened to South America. I logged HK3O in FJ24 at 2042 UTC on FT8.
> Decoded many stations in Argentina and Ecuador."
> 
> Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
> Ionosphere - March 16, 2023 from OK1HH, F.K. Janda.
> 
> "The level of solar activity is only slightly lower than during the
> last solar rotation, but this is especially true below the Sun's
> equator. There is higher activity on the far side of the Sun.
> 
> "There was exceptional phenomenon recorded by coronagraphs on
> satellites on March 13. It was a 'halo CME' that apparently left the
> Sun at more than 3,000 km/s. Although the plasma cloud was not
> heading towards Earth, it still touched it. We can't pinpoint its
> source, but helioseismic maps show a pair of large active regions on
> the far side of the Sun. Both will emerge within days on the eastern
> limb of the solar disk.
> 
> "The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was recorded from the morning
> of the 13th and ended on the 15th. In the next two days, the CME
> impact triggered a geomagnetic storm at G1 and G2 levels. In doing
> so, the attenuation in the polar cap - PCA - increased
> significantly.
> 
> "Geomagnetic observatories recorded a high K index value of 6 on 15
> March at 2322 UTC. Note: this CME was ejected into space by the
> eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun almost 4 days earlier.
> 
> "Shortwave propagation conditions were above average until 14 March
> and deteriorated significantly on 15 March. However, due to
> sufficiently high solar activity there was an improvement from 16
> March onwards."
> 
> KM0T wrote:
> 
> "Finally got VP8 on 6M - Wednesday March 15.
> 
> "Been getting at least one and maybe two decodes from VP8NO and
> VP8LP almost every day over the last week, but not enough to work,
> seems always east coast, SE and Texas, some 6 land.
> 
> "Today, waiting in the wings, decoded a VP8 around 1700 UTC, kept
> the beam that way and VP8LP came in at 1856 with -04 sigs.  I got a
> -20 report. I missed his initial CQ at 1854 which was +18!  He
> dropped down to -15 right after I worked him and then was gone. He
> was in from 1854 to 1858, 4-minute window. Then one more single
> decode him calling CQ at 1900 at -10, then gone.
> 
> "Anyway, it was short lived, then a few minutes later at 1909 UTC
> VP8NO came in with +4 to -10 sigs till about 1918 UTC. I apparently
> got his attention as Greg, W0LGQ in Council Bluffs EN21, south of me
> told me on the phone that VP8NO was calling me back with a -12
> report for a number of sequences, but I was getting no decodes by
> then from him.
> 
> "Greg indicated as we compared notes, that WSJT FT8 signal reports
> from VP8NO were consistently +10 dB better at EN21 then EN13 - 167
> miles as the crow flies.  We both run 6 over 6 so it's somewhat a
> good comparison.
> 
> "Definitely short lived F2.  From here, seems that TEP always ends
> up dropping off mid country LU or CE, CX.  Never that far south to
> VP8.
> 
> "Well, now that I look at the DX Maps snapshot, it appears there may
> have been an Es to TEP link on my side."
> 
> Tony, WA4JQS sent a message about working some New Zealand stations
> on 29.6 MHz FM.
> 
> "Rich, N8UX and I have talked about this ever since FT8 came out. We
> are seeing a lot of skewed path QSOs over the past few years. Today
> the SFI was 157. I am thinking we have some prop paths or types we
> did not know about until FT8. Of course, I could be wrong, but I
> have seen some really strange paths the past few years with FT8. I
> listened for 10 mins after I signed with the ZL2, and I was the only
> one to hear and work him other than the VK3 and they were having
> trouble getting the calls correct. While I had a pipeline, into the
> South Island but then I find it strange that I heard no other VK or
> ZL."
> 
> WB6MPH sent this very interesting link, providing an animated visual
> rendering of predicted propagation:
> 
> https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
> 
> He also is interested in possible effects of planetary positions on
> the Sun. Years ago I heard about J.H. Nelson of RCA and his work on
> this subject, but thought that this article showed his conclusions
> were affected by statistical artifacts, as outlined here:
> 
> https://bit.ly/42mbEtg
> 
> Greg Glenn sent this:
> 
> "Check out Frank Stefani's work.  He is one of many who I read up
> on. Stefani was a peer reviewer on my paper.
> 
> "https://www.hzdr.de/db/Cms?pOid=63352&pNid=0&pLang=en
> 
> "Recent Stefani technical paper:
> 
> "https://bit.ly/3ZUXm18
> 
> "Basically, Stefani suggests that even a very small gravitational
> force exerted by the planets on the Sun can have an effect through
> billions of years of resonance.
> 
> "I personally think that both gravitational, as well as
> electromagnetic forces are at play.  It's a solar 'system' and there
> are multiple forces transferred between the orbiting planets and the
> Sun.
> 
> "I write, along with Astronomer Gerald Pease, about the
> gravitational force exerted by transfer of angular momentum here:
> 
> "https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03553
> 
> "I then wrote about the possible Electromagnetic Connections here:
> 
> "https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.10574
> 
> "A prediction I made that came about:
> 
> "https://bit.ly/42kvVzp
> 
> "Thanks, Greg!"
> 
> Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:
> 
> https://youtu.be/gjrvLY-RU5Q
> 
> Solar explosions:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3liDO85
> 
> From news in India:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3JMJHnu
> 
> Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
> k7ra at arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to
> tell us which mode you were operating.
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for March 9 through 15, 2023 were 155, 135, 126,
> 135, 87, 97, and 96, with a mean of 118.7. 10.7 cm flux was 178.8,
> 171.2, 157.4, 150, 143.3, 138.5, and 135.7, with a mean of 153.6.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 11, 7, 8, 3, 17, and 29, with
> a mean of 13.1. Middle latitude A index was 14, 10, 5, 6, 2, 12, and
> 19, with a mean of 9.9.
> NNNN
> /EX