[SFDXA] ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

>>> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
>>> ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
>>> 
>>> ZCZC AP33
>>> QST de W1AW  
>>> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33  ARLP033
>>> From Tad Cook, K7RA
>>> Seattle, WA  August 18, 2023
>>> To all radio amateurs 
>>> 
>>> SB PROP ARL ARLP033
>>> ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
>>> 
>>> Eleven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, August 10-16,
>>> but average solar indicators declined.
>>> 
>>> There were two new sunspots groups on August 11, three more on
>>> August 13, another on August 14, two more on August 15, and three
>>> more on August 16. On August 17 another new one appeared.
>>> 
>>> But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 108.9 to 95.7, while
>>> average daily solar flux dropped from 166.4 to 154.2.
>>> 
>>> Predicted solar flux is 150, 155, and 157 on August 18-20, 160 on
>>> August 21-22, then 162, 165, 162, 160 and 164 on August 23-27, 168
>>> on August 28-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, then 158,
>>> 155, 152 and 150 on September 4-7, and 148, 142, 140 and 130 on
>>> September 8-11, 135 on September 12-14, and 145, 150, 155, 158 and
>>> 160 on September 15-19, 162 on September 20-21, then 160 and 164 on
>>> September 22-23, and 168 on September 24-27.
>>> 
>>> Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 18-19, 5 on August
>>> 20-25, 12 on August 26, 5 on August 27 through September 5, then 10,
>>> 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-11, then 12, 15, 12 and 8
>>> on September 12-15, 5 on September 16-21, 12 on September 22, and 5
>>> on September 23 through the end of the month.
>>> 
>>> Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
>>> Ionosphere August 18-24, 2023 from OK1HH:
>>> 
>>> "Solar activity has declined, both spot and flare. We have usually
>>> observed C-class solar flares, although the configurations of some
>>> active regions did not preclude the formation of M-class flares. We
>>> expect an upsurge in solar activity in the last five days of August,
>>> after which more sunspot groups should appear at the eastern limb of
>>> the solar disk.
>>> 
>>> The Earth's ionosphere was quite sensitive to the increased influx
>>> of protons in the accelerated solar wind on 11 August and again on
>>> 16-17 August. Propagation improved on August 14-15 and worsened on
>>> August 16. I do not expect any other surprises before the end of the
>>> month."
>>> 
>>> Bil Paul, KD6JUI, who often reports HF operations from his kayak,
>>> wrote:
>>> 
>>> "I recently returned from a vacation at Lake Tahoe where I was
>>> running 10 watts into an end-fed half-wave wire vertical. The rental
>>> place was surrounded by extra-tall pine trees, but the base of the
>>> antenna was 30 feet above the ground on a high porch.
>>> 
>>> My discovery (on the evenings of August 7 and 9, around 8 p.m.
>>> Pacific Coast time) was that CW DX was coming in on the 30-meter
>>> band. On the 7th, I contacted OV1CDX in Denmark on that band (and
>>> heard him again on subsequent nights). On the 9th, I contacted 6B2A
>>> in Egypt, who was coming in a solid S4.
>>> 
>>> I had a couple other CW DX twilight/early-night contacts on 15 and
>>> 20 meters, but the 30 meter contacts surprised me."
>>> 
>>> N4KZ reports from Frankfort, Kentucky:
>>> 
>>> "Last week, I began copying SSB signals from Europe on the 10 and
>>> 12-meter bands.  They were weak but readable. It was the first time
>>> I've heard SSB signals on those bands from that part of the world in
>>> many months. Then, on August 15th beginning at 1248 UTC, I worked
>>> stations across Europe and the Middle East on 12-meter SSB with
>>> strong signals.
>>> 
>>> About 20 minutes earlier, I tuned across the 10-meter phone band and
>>> only copied one signal. It was S79VU, Ravi, in the Seychelles. He
>>> was about S5 and working Europeans who I did not copy. But he came
>>> back to me on my first call. We've worked before but this was our
>>> first 10-meter QSO. It's only mid-August, but perhaps autumn
>>> propagation is beginning to emerge and with the continuing high
>>> sunspot count, I hope this marks the start of better HF conditions
>>> this fall and winter. I run about 800 watts into a multi-band Yagi
>>> with 3 active elements on each band. The antenna is up 55 feet. I
>>> live on a hilltop with a steep slope toward the north which has
>>> proven over the years to be an advantage.
>>> 
>>> On July 1, I once again became active on the low-end of 2 meters
>>> doing weak-signal work. I was quite active on SSB and CW on the low
>>> end throughout the 1980s and '90s and to a lesser extent until about
>>> 2010. I worked 40 states from Kentucky but eventually decided to
>>> concentrate on HF and 6 meters. But I missed 2 meters and now I have
>>> returned.
>>> 
>>> There's less SSB and CW than there used to be but quite a few are
>>> operating FT8 on 144.174 MHz which does a nice job with weak
>>> signals. So far I have worked 15 states and Ontario. Morning
>>> propagation a couple hours after sunrise allows for 300-400 mile
>>> QSOs routinely on FT8. And I've copied stations from Colorado, Long
>>> Island, NY and Connecticut on meteor scatter while using MSK144.
>>> After a 12-year hiatus from 2-meter weak-signal work, it's good to
>>> be back."
>>> 
>>> AA6XE in Fremont, California wrote:
>>> 
>>> "Interesting conditions on 10 meters although not that unusual. In
>>> the last couple of days propagation into the Pacific Northwest has
>>> materialized. A bunch of Beacons have surfaced. Beacons from
>>> Portland to well north of Vancouver BC are coming in every
>>> afternoon. I heard Tad Cook's (K7RA) 10 meter beacon yesterday (Aug
>>> 13). Beacons out of Mexico have been coming in on 10 Meters for over
>>> a month. Some of those beacons are located as far South as Veracruz.
>>> Beacons from Australia have been coming through on most days over
>>> the last month. NCDXF beacons VK6RBP in Western Australia and 4S7B
>>> in Sri Lanka were heard on 15 Meters for a few days.
>>> 
>>> While propagation on 10 to the Pacific Northwest may not seem like
>>> much I recognize it as a marker that the days of summer propagation
>>> are numbered. Typically this doesn't happen until the last 2 weeks
>>> in August so it appears to be early this year. So like the Crocuses
>>> popping up in late February it doesn't do much for one aside from
>>> reminding us that better times are on the way.
>>> 
>>> As to what we can expect this Fall it looks to be much improved over
>>> last year and at the peak of Cycle 24. The 90 day mean SFI currently
>>> stands at 166. Last year at this time 90 day mean stood at 114. The
>>> 90 day Mean SFI for the peak of Solar Cycle 24 was 155.  The 90 Day
>>> Mean made a significant run-up during late Spring early Summer
>>> increasing 21 points. For the last 5 weeks the Daily SFI has been
>>> sliding. It hasn't dropped enough to impact the 90 and 81 Day Mean
>>> Values just yet, but if the decline continues those numbers will
>>> sag.
>>> 
>>> The rising phase of SC25 has its own characteristics. The solar flux
>>> rises rapidly for 4 to 8 weeks followed by an extended period of
>>> decline for 2 to 3 months. This makes it difficult to see the
>>> overall trend. It even faked out a number of heliophysicists who
>>> made the call that SC 25 had peaked in February 2023. The latest
>>> predictions call for SC 25 to peak at year-end 2023/2024. A few are
>>> calling for SC 25 to peak at mid-year 2024. It would be a pleasant
>>> surprise if the next surge kicks off a few weeks early, say by the
>>> first days of September. That would make a big impact of the
>>> conditions we can expect on 6 Meters this Fall."
>>> 
>>> The latest from Tamitha Skov:  https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg
>>> 
>>> Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
>>> k7ra at arrl.net.  When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
>>> which mode you were operating.
>>> 
>>> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
>>> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
>>> Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
>>> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
>>> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .
>>> 
>>> Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:
>>> 
>>> https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
>>> 
>>> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at 
>>> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
>>> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/
>>> 
>>> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
>>> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
>>> 
>>> Sunspot numbers for August 10 through 16, 2023 were 83, 105, 61, 89,
>>> 85, 107, and 140, with a mean of 95.7  10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
>>> 152.8, 148.3, 150.4, 154, 158.1, and 160.1, with a mean of 154.2.
>>> Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 8, 5, 5, 4, and 8, with a
>>> mean of 6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 10, 7, 6, 7, and 10,
>>> with a mean of 7.7.
>>> NNNN
>>> /EX
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