[SFDXA] ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP010
> ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP10
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 10  ARLP010
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  March 11, 2022
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP010
> ARLP010 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> On March 11 at 0431 UTC Australia's Space Forecast Centre issued
> this warning:
> 
> "A slow coronal mass ejection has been observed late on 10 march,
> and event modeling suggests arrival at the Earth late on 13 March.
> Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 14 March 2022."
> 
> We observed an active Sun this week. Geomagnetic indicators peaked
> on Saturday, March 5 when Alaska's high latitude college A index
> reached 42.
> 
> Again this week, sunspots covered the Sun every day. Average daily
> sunspot numbers rose from 44 to 87.4, and average daily solar flux
> went from 98.5 to 115.5. Geomagnetic indicators were also higher.
> Average daily planetary A index increased from 7.3 to 11.4.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 120 on March 11-12, 115 on March 13, 110 on
> March 14-16, 105 on March 17, 100 on March 18-21, then 101 and 103
> on March 22-23, 104 on March 24-27, then 110, 115 and 116 on March
> 28-30, 118 on March 31 through April 1, 120 on April 2, 116 on April
> 3-4, then 115 and 112 on April 5-6, 110 on April 7-9, then 108, 102,
> 98 and 99 on April 10-13 then 100 on April 14-17.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 12 on March 11, 5 on March 12-13,
> then 10, 18, 15, 5 and 8 on March 14-18, then 12 on March 19-20, 15
> on March 21, 7 on March 22-24, then 5, 10 and 8 on March 25-27, 5 on
> March 28-29, then 10, 12, 25, 20 and 10 on March 30 through April 3,
> 5 on April 4-6, then 15, 20 and 12 on April 7-9, and 5 on April
> 10-13, then 8 on April 14, and 10 on April 15-16.
> 
> OK1HH wrote, "The power density of solar radio noise at a wavelength
> of 10.7 cm, more briefly referred to as 'solar flux,' remains above
> 110 for a week. Because we see two more active areas beyond the
> eastern limb of the solar disk (thanks to the STEREO Ahead
> satellite), solar flux should stay that way for another week.
> 
> "The concurrence of increased solar activity with seasonal changes
> during the approaching equinox results in improved conditions for
> short-wave ionospheric propagation.
> 
> "Occasional irregular occurrences of a slight increase in
> geomagnetic activity (as was the case on March 5-6) cause only a
> slight deterioration. Possible recurrent disturbance is expected
> until the beginning of April, probably already in its first days."
> 
> Russ Hunt, WQ3X wrote on March 4, "Yesterday I heard WA2BOT on 10m
> FT8 working DX on the long path and aimed my beam due south. In just
> over a half hour's time I worked 33 JAs, 2 DUs and VR2XYL. I had a
> pileup 6 deep at times using 250w and 5 element Yagi at 50'. It was
> probably the most exciting time I've had in the last 20 yrs. Today I
> worked two more VR2s and 3 JAs also LP just after sunrise. Love them
> 'spots.'"
> 
> A few hours later he wrote, "During the middle of the day we get
> some VK/ZLs starting around 3 PM local time. But try sunrise and
> sunset and you will find a lot of DX.
> 
> "I hear the 6s and 7s working a lot of Asia in the evening. Here we
> get EU, Africa, and the middle east in the mornings. I've done WAC
> about 4 or 5 times a week, but now running out of new stations to
> work."
> 
> Robert Strickland, KE2WY asked about a good source for the latest
> daily sunspot numbers, and I sent him to this site:
> 
> https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/daily-solar-indices.txt
> 
> On March 10, N9II sent some observations of last week's DX contest,
> only a small portion presented here.
> 
> "I operated single band 15M in the ARRL DX contest but made a few
> QSOs on other bands. 20M was open well to Africa and south in the
> 0100 UTC hour Saturday, some very loud Caribbean signals. 10M was
> open for many hours to the south some booming signals even from LP
> stations in Puerto Rico and Turks and Caicos and many HP stations
> like J68HZ, St Lucia, PJ4G on Bonaire, and PJ2T, Curacao.
> 
> "On 15M, a disturbance and slightly low solar flux made for some
> challenging conditions to Asia and northern Europe.
> 
> "Saturday evening the disturbance rendered Japan nearly completely
> closed, with Sunday evening conditions fair with most signals less
> than S9.
> 
> "I made 600 15M QSOs working 86 countries.
> 
> "On 10M CW starting 1414 UTC on March 8 I worked 3 new ones in a
> row: 7Q6M, Malawi, 5X1NA, Uganda, and JY5HX, Jordan.
> 
> "Then on 10 SSB, Dov, 4Z4DX, Israel, on 10 CW V26K, Antigua, and
> OA1F in Peru.
> 
> "Later on 17 CW V4/G0TLE, St. Kitts, then topping off with E51BQ on
> South Cook Islands on 10 SSB at 2325 UTC.
> 
> "On 12m CW on the 9th at 1550 UTC I worked V26K. I called CQ on 10
> SSB at 1557 UTC and was called by Spain, then Francisco, TT8FC in
> Chad, ZS1PPY, South Africa, then 3B8HE in Mauritius. Today, the 10th
> featured excellent high band propagation with today's solar flux
> climbing to 127. I heard Indonesia peaking S8 on 15M SSB at 1340
> UTC, then worked 4L1AN in Georgia at 1344 UTC (new), VU2DSI, India,
> at 1353 UTC.
> 
> "Turning to 10M SSB, I found Selki, S01WS, Southern Sahara, and
> CU1EZ, Azores for #100 on 10 SSB. Then at 1551 UTC for the next hour
> 10M blew wide open to Europe starting with Bulgaria, Italy, and
> Hungary.
> 
> "Several stations with simple end fed wires were S9 and the loudest
> signals were S9+20 dB or a bit stronger. This was one of the best
> openings all Winter, but others were more widespread farther north."
> 
> Here is an email list for operators of, or anyone interested in, HF
> beacons:
> 
> https://www.freelists.org/webpage/hfbeacons
> 
> The Vernal Equinox is in a little over a week, 1533 UTC on Sunday,
> March 20, when Earth will be bathed in an equal amount of solar
> radiation over both southern and northern hemispheres, good for HF
> propagation. It is the first day of Spring in the northern
> hemisphere and Fall in the southern.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> please email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
> an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for March 3 through 9, 2022 were 92, 77, 95, 82, 84,
> 93, and 89, with a mean of 87.4. 10.7 cm flux was 110.9, 113.1,
> 120.1, 115.7, 118.3, 115.3, and 114.8, with a mean of 115.5.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 10, 27, 18, 9, 6, and 5, with
> a mean of 11.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 7, 19, 13, 7, 5, and
> 4, with a mean of 8.3.
> NNNN
> /EX