[SFDXA] Solar Cycle Update

[Bill]

/From Tony N2MFT: - Bill W2CQ/

*SOLAR CYCLE UPDATE:*Solar Cycle 25 is heating up. New sunspot counts 
from NOAA confirm that the young solar cycle is outperforming the 
official forecast. You are here:

<https://spaceweather.com/images2022/11jan22/sunspotcounts.png>
See the complete labeled plot 
<https://spaceweather.com/images2022/11jan22/sunspotcounts.png>orplay 
with an interactive version 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression>from NOAA.

Sunspot counts have exceeded predictions for 15 straight months. The 
monthly value at the end of December 2021 was more than twice the 
forecast, and the highest in more than 5 years.

The "official forecast 
<https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update?fbclid=IwAR0II6o75ehEkIfRW-QP4F4w1ljXx89KsQrKdhEGeJvnIm6GviIFiEjdH34>" 
comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and 
International Space Environmental Services (ISES). Using a variety of 
leading indicators, the Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak 
in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its 
predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be 
stronger.

Sky watchers have already noticed the change. "We are definitely seeing 
the effects on the ground in the Arctic!" reports Chad Blakley of the 
Swedish tour guide service Lights over Lapland. "Auroras now are the 
best in years."


*(A)*The first X-flare of Solar Cycle 25 onJuly 3, 2021 
<https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=03&month=07&year=2021>;*(B)*A 
radio blackout caused by an X-flare onOct. 28, 2021 
<https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=28&month=10&year=2021>;*(C)*Auroras 
over Wisconsin photographed by Marybeth Kiczenski onNov. 4, 2021 
<https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=04&month=11&year=2021>.

Indeed, geomagnetic activity has nearly tripled since the new solar 
cycle began. In 2020, the first full year of Solar Cycle 25, there were 
9 days with at least minor (G1-class 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g1.jpg>) geomagnetic storms. That 
number skyrocketed to 25 days in 2021. One of those "storm days" (Nov. 
4, 2021) was a borderlineG4-class 
<https://spaceweather.com/glossary/g4.jpg>(severe) event with auroras 
sighted as far south as California and New Mexico.

Another sign of increasing solar activity is the X-flare. X-flares are 
the most powerful type of solar flare. They can cause strong radio 
blackouts, pepper Earth's atmosphere with energetic particles, and 
herald intense geomagnetic storms. The sun produced/zero/of these flares 
from late 2017 until mid-2021. Solar Cycle 25 busted the drought on July 
3, 2021, with an X1.6 category explosion, followed by an X1-flare on 
Oct. 28, 2021.

Two down, 98 to go? Typical 11-year solar cycles produce more than 100 
X-flares during the years around Solar Max. Stay tuned for updates as 
Solar Cycle 25 intensifies.

SpaceWeather.com
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