[SFDXA] ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

>> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP008
>> ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
>> 
>> ZCZC AP08
>> QST de W1AW  
>> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 8  ARLP008
>> From Tad Cook, K7RA
>> Seattle, WA  February 28, 2022
>> To all radio amateurs 
>> 
>> SB PROP ARL ARLP008
>> ARLP008 Propagation de K7RA
>> 
>> New sunspot groups appeared on February 17, 19, 20 and 21, but solar
>> activity declined, even though sunspots were seen covering the sun
>> every day.
>> 
>> Average daily sunspot number declined 21 points from 75.3 last week
>> to 54.3 in the current reporting week, February 17-23. Average daily
>> solar flux was down nearly 15 points from 110.1 to 95.4. On
>> Thursday, February 24 the decline in sunspot numbers continued to
>> 23, 31.3 points below the average in the previous seven days.
>> 
>> Average daily planetary A index went from 13 to 9.6, and average
>> daily middle latitude A index was off by one point to 7.3.
>> 
>> Predicted solar flux is 95 on February 25, 100 on February 26-27,
>> 105 on February 28 through March 2, 110 on March 3-4, 108 on March
>> 5-8, 105 on March 9-11, 103 on March 12-13, 100 on March 14, 98 on
>> March 15-16, 102 on March 17-19, 104 on March 20-22, 108 on March
>> 23-26, 110 on March 27, 115 on March 28-29, then 112 and 110 on
>> March 30-31, then 108 on April 1-4.
>> 
>> Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on February 25-26, 8 on
>> February 27 through March 3, 10 on March 4-5, 8 on March 6, 5 on
>> March 7-10, then 15, 12 and 10 on March 11-13, 5 on March 14-18,
>> then 8, 5, 12, 18, 15 and 10 on March 19-24, 5 on March 25-29, then
>> 12, 15, 10 and 8 on March 30 through April 2, and 5 on April 3-6.
>> 
>> Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
>> Ionosphere, February 24, 2022 from OK1HH.
>> 
>> "Solar activity gradually declined to very low levels with a slight
>> chance of Class C flares. The solar wind speed and particle density
>> fluctuate irregularly. The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor
>> storm levels. Total solar radiation, accompanied by an irregular
>> occurrence of enhanced geomagnetic activity caused a subsequent
>> gradual decrease to overall below-average shortwave propagation
>> conditions. A slight improvement can be expected in connection with
>> seasonal changes with the approaching Spring Equinox."
>> 
>> I regularly check propagation on 10-meters using FT8, low power, and
>> a modest full wave end fed wire antenna that is mostly indoors on
>> the second floor of my home.
>> 
>> Sometimes I will see my coverage on pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
>> concentrated in an area 2000-2300 miles away in Georgia and South
>> Carolina, which is what I saw on February 24 around 1830 UTC. 24
>> hours earlier I saw only two reception reports, none in the USA,
>> with one station down in central Mexico and the other way down in
>> Southern Argentina around 53 degrees south latitude. Very odd, but
>> this being 10-meters, soon the coverage changed and I saw coverage
>> across the East Coast.
>> 
>> Using this same modest antenna on 40 meters, where it is one quarter
>> wave long, at 0330 UTC on February 25 I see coverage all over the
>> United States, but only one station reporting my signal in Europe,
>> at -17 dB from IZ1CRR in JN35td.
>> 
>> On IZ1CRR's QRZ.com page he says he is a shortwave listener, and not
>> to call him on FT8 as he is listening only.
>> 
>> Even if you are not an FT8 operator, you could use pskreporter.info
>> to discover propagation paths on different bands from your local
>> area by searching for signals received from your grid square over
>> the previous 15 minutes. This assumes there are other stations in
>> your grid square active at the time.
>> 
>> In grid square CN87 in my area, there seem to be active local
>> stations on at all times on every band. You should probably look for
>> stronger signals with positive signal levels if you plan to use CW
>> or SSB.
>> 
>> Solar eruption in the news:
>> 
>> https://abc7.com/solar-eruption-sun-image-sunspot/11589207/
>> 
>> Here is an article about instability of sunspots:
>> 
>> https://bit.ly/3LXYEC4
>> 
>> Here is a blog post about recent solar events:
>> 
>> https://bit.ly/3t9ERHa
>> 
>> Details on the new Maui solar telescope:
>> 
>> https://bit.ly/3ImQxNb
>> 
>> Here is the February 21 update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:
>> 
>> https://youtu.be/wJaV5RnIEFE
>> 
>> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
>> please email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net.
>> 
>> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
>> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
>> Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
>> an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
>> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
>> 
>> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
>> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
>> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
>> 
>> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
>> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
>> 
>> Sunspot numbers for February 17 through 23, 2022 were 103, 53, 51,
>> 49, 48, 38, and 38, with a mean of 54.3. 10.7 cm flux was 96.7,
>> 93.3, 95.7, 93.3, 97.8, 95.3, and 95.5, with a mean of 95.4.
>> Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 9, 13, 12, 16, and 6, with
>> a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 6, 8, 11, 13, and
>> 4, with a mean of 7.3.
>> NNNN
>> /EX