[SFDXA] From The ARRL Letter: Research on Ancient Massive Solar Storms Suggests a Need to Prepare for the Next Ones

[Bill]

Research on Ancient Massive Solar Storms Suggests a Need to Prepare for 
the Next Ones

Numerous powerful X-class solar flares occurred last fall as Solar Cycle 
25 activity picked up. Jon Jones, N0JK, covered the event in his /QST/ 
column, "The World Above 50 MHz," in the February issue, and he pointed 
out, "More powerful flares than these have taken place, such as the 
Carrington Event of 1859, during which aurora was seen in the South 
Pacific and in Cuba, and it sparked electrical fires."

Similar events took place in the 20th century, but, as Jones notes, 
scientists are researching spectacular solar storms that took place as 
early as 7176 BC and in 5259 BC. The huge solar flare some 9,200 years 
ago has convinced researchers that we are not ready for the next one, 
and our modern technology would take a major hit.

"Also worrisome is that Earth may have narrowly dodged a 
'Carrington-level event' in 2012," Jones said. Daniel Baker of the 
University of Colorado -- speaking at a NOAA Space Weather Workshop -- 
said, "If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces."

Jones said his reading has led him to conclude that these solar 
superstorms occur more frequently than people think. "As more ice cores 
and tree rings are sampled, scientists are finding there have been more 
of these [major solar storms]," he said.

In his February column, Jones cited a 2013 Royal Academy of Engineering 
report 
<https://www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/space-weather-summary-report> 
that discussed the risks of a Carrington-level event.

"An extreme space weather event, or solar superstorm, is one of a number 
of potentially high-impact, but low-probability natural hazards," said 
Paul Cannon, a Royal Academy of Engineering fellow and chair of the 
study working group that developed the report. "Extreme space weather 
[can have] impacts on engineered systems and infrastructure."

Cannon said the hazard and risks of extreme space weather on the 
electricity grid, satellites, and air passenger safety had not 
previously been critically assessed. His group's report attempts to 
address that omission.

The /Live Science/ article, "Ancient solar storm smashed Earth at the 
wrong part of the sun's cycle -- and scientists are concerned," cites a 
study, "Cosmogenic radionuclides reveal an extreme solar particle storm 
near a solar minimum 9125 years BP <https://rdcu.be/cF8py>." Study 
co-author Raimund Muscheler, a geology researcher at Lund University in 
Sweden, said, "These enormous storms are currently not sufficiently 
included in risk assessments. It is of the utmost importance to analyze 
what these events could mean for today's technology and how we can 
protect ourselves."

"A Carrington Event taking place today could destroy orbiting 
satellites, disrupt GPS, and damage undersea cables and internet 
infrastructure on the ground," Jones said in his /QST/ column. "An event 
in 775 AD was believed to have been 100 times stronger than the 
Carrington Event."
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