[SFDXA] ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP52
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52  ARLP052
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  December 30, 2022
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP052
> ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> This reporting week (December 22-28) saw declining solar numbers and
> rising geomagnetic indicators. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped
> from 124.1 to 96.1, and solar flux from 153.8 to 143.8. Average
> planetary A index rose from 6.7 to 17.3, and middle latitude numbers
> from 5.1 to 12.6.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 164 and 162 on December 30-31, 160  January
> 1-3, 2023, 158 on January 4, 156 on January 5-6, 140 on January 7-8,
> 136 on January 9, 130 on January 10-14, then 128 and 125 on January
> 15-16, 120 on January 17-20, then 125, 135, 136, 138, 132, 134 and
> 132 on January 21-27, 130 on January 28-29, 135 on January 30, and
> 140 on January 31 through February 4.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 16, 14, 10 and 8 on December 30, 2022
> through January 2, 2023, 5 and 14 on January 3-4, then 18, 18 and 10
> on January 5-7, 5 on January 8-16, then 8, 12, 25 and 20 on January
> 17-20, 10 on January 21-22, then 20, 15, 10, 15 and 12 on January
> 23-27, and 10, 5 and 18 on January 28-30, then then 10, 10, 8 and 10
> on January 31 through February 3, and a nice quiet 5 beyond that,
> perhaps until mid-February.
> 
> The observatory at Penticton, British Columbia is the source for our
> solar flux numbers, and the staff leaves annually from Christmas to
> New Years. The system is automated, and we get the daily noon
> readings from this source:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3hWlhN1
> 
> Unfortunately, the system crashed on December 24 and no readings
> were posted after Christmas Eve.
> 
> Thanks to Dr. Andrew Gray, Research Council Officer at the Dominion
> Radio Astrophysical Observatory for monitoring his email while on
> holiday and supplying us with the four days of missing data.
> 
> From Thomas Bayer, RWC Prague at the Budkov Observatory:
> 
> "Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 30 - January
> 05, 2023.
> 
> "Quiet: Dec 30, Jan 2-3
> Unsettled: Dec 30-31, Jan 3-5
> Active: Dec 31-Jan 1, Jan 3-5
> Minor storm: Jan 3-4
> Major storm: 0
> Severe storm: 0
> 
> "We expect a transitional geomagnetic activity decrease during the
> coming two days. Then, about New Year, we expect partial geomagnetic
> activity enhancement again with a possible active event.
> 
> "The other active/minor storm event is expected about January 3 - 4
> in connection with coronal hole 60/-3.
> 
> "Between these events, we expect quiet to unsettled conditions
> generally."
> 
> From F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
> 
> "Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
> Ionosphere December 30 - January 05, 2023.
> 
> "A week ago it seemed that the relatively low solar activity would
> remain so until Christmas. All observable sunspot groups had
> relatively stable magnetic fields, not enough to generate major
> flares.
> 
> At the same time, a series of geomagnetically disturbed days
> continued until 27 December, with highly variable and
> difficult-to-predict evolution of ionospheric shortwave propagation.
> Average days were irregularly interspersed with above-average ones.
> 
> "From December 25, sunspot group AR3169 suddenly began to increase.
> Trailing behind it is AR3171, and both are now approaching the
> western edge of the solar disk.
> 
> "The CME observed on Christmas Eve after a magnetic filament
> explosion, likely partially impacted Earth and contributed to the
> slow decline in solar wind speed during the third decade (ten day
> period) of December.
> 
> "According to NOAA forecasts, there is a possibility of G1 class
> geomagnetic storms on December 30-31, when the Earth's magnetic
> field is likely to hit the Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR). We
> expect increased geomagnetic activity and auroras at higher
> latitudes again.
> 
> "Thanks to helioseismology, we know of three active regions on the
> far side of the Sun. They are large enough to last until their
> heliographic longitudes reach the eastern limb of the solar disk.
> Therefore, total solar activity should not drop much anytime soon."
> 
> Another over-the-top article describing flares as existential
> threats.
> 
> https://bit.ly/3Wy8BuZ
> 
> Unusual solar events:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3hTQiS0
> 
> Big 2022 solar news:
> 
> https://www.livescience.com/solar-storm-stories-2022
> 
> A New Year's forecast from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, our Space
> Weather Woman:
> 
> https://youtu.be/XYIxYsQ2SUk
> 
> Don't forget, New Year's Eve (in North America) and New Year's Day
> is Straight Key Night:
> 
> http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night
> 
> Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to
> k7ra at arrl.net.
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28, 2022 were 108, 100, 85,
> 107, 96, 89, and 88, with a mean of 96.1. 10.7 cm flux was 131.3,
> 127.7, 133.3, 144, 150.5, 159, and 160.4, with a mean of 143.8.
> Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 24, 23, 10, 22, 25, and 5,
> with a mean of 17.3. Middle latitude A index was 7, 19, 15, 8, 19,
> 16, and 4, with a mean of 12.6.
> NNNN
> /EX