[SFDXA] ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Fri Oct 29 18:03:55 EDT 2021

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
> ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP44
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44  ARLP044
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  October 29, 2021
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP044
> ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Sunspot activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
> number increasing by nearly five-fold from 11.3 to 54.9. Average
> daily solar flux rose from 78.6 to 95.7. Currently our Sun is
> peppered with spots:
> 
> https://helio-vo.eu/solar_activity/current/
> 
> A new sunspot group appeared on October 22, another on October 24,
> two more on October 25, and another on October 26.
> 
> The sunspot number peaked on Thursday, October 28 at 96, and daily
> solar flux peaked on the same day at 111.7.
> 
> Geomagnetic indicators were nice and quiet, but don’t expect that
> to last. Average daily planetary A index went from 8.4 to 4.4 and
> average daily middle latitude A index declined from 5.4 to 3.6.
> 
> Predicted solar flux looks quite promising, at 113 on October 29,
> 114 on October 30 through November 1, 110 and 105 on November 2-3,
> then 100 on November 4-5, 86 on November 6-7, 85 on November 8-9, 83
> on November 10, 82 on November 11-15, 85 on November 16-20, 94 on
> November 21, 95 on November 22-23, 96 on November 24, 95 on November
> 25-29, then 92, 90, and 88 on November 30 through December 2, and 86
> on December 3-4.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 29, then 40, 35 and 12
> on October 30 through November 1, 5 on November 2-5, then 12, 10 and
> 8 on November 6-8, 5 on November 9-14, then 10 and 8 on November
> 15-16, 5 on November 17-22, 8 on November 23-24, 10 on November
> 25-26, 5 on November 27-28, 8 on November 29, then 5 on November 30
> through December 2, then 12, 10 and 8 on December 3-5.
> 
> Spaceweather.com reported on Thursday, "A strong G3-class
> geomagnetic storm is possible on October 30 when the CME from
> yesterday's X-flare is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field." This
> is why the predicted planetary A index on October 30-31 is 40 and
> 35.
> 
> At 0129 UTC on October 29 the Australian Space Forecast Centre
> issued this geomagnetic disturbance warning:
> 
> "(Sunspot) - AR2887 produced X1.0 flare at 28/1535 UTC, which
> triggered a halo CME. The CME is expected to arrive at Earth in the
> first half of UTC day 30 October. As a result, the geomagnetic
> conditions are expected to reach major storm levels with a chance of
> severe storm periods. The global Kp index may reach 7 (G3 storms).
> On the local night of 30 October (and maybe 31 October), aurora may
> be visible from Tasmania and the southern mainland coastal areas.
> INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
> FROM 30-31 OCTOBER 2021."
> 
> This weekend is the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, which should be
> affected by the increased geomagnetic activity. The CW weekend is
> November 27-28. ARRL November CW Sweepstakes is next weekend,
> November 6-8.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 29 to November
> 23, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> quiet on: November 4-5, 18-19,
> quiet to unsettled on: October 31, November 9, 12-13, 17, 20, 22,
> quiet to active on: October 29, November 1-3, 10-11, 21, 23,
> unsettled to active on: October 30, November 6-8, 14, 16,
> Active to disturbed: November (15),
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on October 30-31, November 1, (8,) 9-10,
> (11,) 16-17.
> 
> "Remarks:
> - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."
> 
> Darrell, AA7FV sent this:
> 
> https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
> 
> He sent plots of 17 meter WSPR reports on October 28, which he noted
> show the obvious effect of a CME from 1520-1550 UTC.
> 
> You really should check out his page on QRZ.com, and
> https://www.qsl.net/aa7fv/ which give fascinating details of his
> activities, and background in astrophysics.
> 
> Don't miss Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, and her latest video:
> 
> https://youtu.be/yvjR-AYm2zs
> 
> From Mike May WB8VLC Salem, Oregon.
> 
> "QSOs on upper HF bands For the end of October until 10-27, only the
> interesting QSOs are listed as there are just too many others from
> 17 to 10 meters to include.
> 
> "Note this interesting QSO on 15 meters AM, 2021-10-24 16:40 CT1EHI
> 15m 21.430 AM IM67aa Portugal.
> 
> "This was an AM QSO and amazing as signals were solid both ways on
> AM.
> 
> "D4F on 10 SSB was the first real strong African region signal heard
> in a long time here on 10 meters and a welcome QSO.
> 
> "HD8R has been the big DXpedition this week with big signals on 10
> to 17 meters.
> 
> "2021-10-27  0129 HD8R 17m  18.080    CW   EI49kd Galapagos Island       
> 2021-10-26   1540 HD8R 10m  28.024    CW   EI49kd Galapagos Islands      
> 2021-10-26   1536 HD8R 12m  24.950    SSB  EI49kd Galapagos Islands
> 2021-10-26   0151 HD8R 15m  21.024    CW   EI49kd Galapagos Islands      
> 2021-10-24   2227 E51JD 10m 28.420    SSB  BG08ct South Cook Islands     
> 2021-10-24   1917 VE8WD/M 15m 21.320  SSB  Canada
> 
> "A nice QSO with a ham in Yellowknife running 100 watts mobile, he
> was over 59 for 2 hours after our QSO."
> 
> A Canadian view on solar risks to the power grid:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3GIuy35
> 
> More on this week's space weather:
> 
> https://bit.ly/2XT1QdY
> 
> In a message titled "Good propagation these days," Angel Santana,
> WP3GW reported from Puerto Rico on October 26:
> 
> "Yesterday at about 1730 UTC heard M5JON on 28.505 MHz which was a
> surprise since it has been a long time since I heard an English
> station on 10m. Did QSO with a 5-7 report to this side.
> 
> "Today contacted HD8R on 24.950 MHz split 5 up at 1851 UTC.
> 
> "I suppose and hope that the CQ WW SSB this weekend is why I am
> hearing much activity on all bands."
> 
> Small portion of a message from Frank Donovan, W3LPL:
> 
> "Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal
> until likely CME arrival early to mid-day Saturday, then mostly
> below normal until at least mid-day Sunday.
> 
> "We are in the geomagnetically active autumn equinox season through
> late October with about twice as many geomagnetically active days
> compared to December, January, June and July caused by the
> interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) more frequently persisting in a
> southward orientation (-Bz).
> 
> "Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed stream
> effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
> frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz)
> component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial
> but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms.
> 
> "Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually
> triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz)
> with enhanced IMF field strength for several hours coincident with
> the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream.
> 
> "More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms
> may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in
> a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for
> several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth
> directed fast CME.
> 
> "Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is 56 minutes earlier and
> daylength is 90 minutes shorter than it was on September 22nd.
> 
> "Daytime ionization and residual nighttime ionization in the far
> northern polar region is rapidly declining due to steadily
> increasing polar night effects."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> please email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service web page at. http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
> an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for October 21 through 27, 2021 were 11, 28, 32, 46,
> 81, 95, and 91, with a mean of 54.9. 10.7 cm flux was 81.9, 86.9,
> 86.8, 93.2, 100.6, 109.3, and 110.9, with a mean of 95.7. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 7, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, and 3, with a mean of
> 4.4. Middle latitude A index was 9, 3, 2, 2, 4, 3, and 2, with a
> mean of 3.6.
> NNNN
> /EX