[SFDXA] ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
> ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP45
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  November 5, 2021
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP045
> ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Sunspot numbers and solar flux index were both declining by the end
> of our reporting week (October 28 through November 3), but averages
> for both numbers were higher than reported in last week's
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP044.
> 
> Average daily sunspot number increased from 54.9 to 67.6, while
> average daily solar flux jumped from 95.7 to 102.
> 
> CME activity through the week drove geomagnetic numbers much higher.
> Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.4 to 12, and
> average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.6 to 9. On
> November 4 the planetary A index was 69, and Alaska's College A
> index was 131!
> 
> Spaceweather.com reported a "cannibal CME" struck Earth at 2000 UTC
> on November 3, and that this would spark a strong geomagnetic storm,
> and boy, did it ever! With aurora observed in United States down
> below the northern tier states, it had a pronounced negative effect
> on HF propagation the following day. For a time on Thursday testing
> propagation paths using FT8 and pskreporter, I could see no
> propagation above 20 meters.
> 
> More on that CME:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3BNPhyL
> 
> At 0326 UTC on November 5 the Australian Space Forecast Centre noted
> that although conditions have quieted down, a southward turn of the
> interplanetary magnetic field may cause another increase in
> geomagnetic activity.
> 
> I received several reports this week that "10 meters is back!"
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK in Kansas noted on November 4:
> 
> "No (VHF) enhancement in KS from the CME impact yet.
> 
> "Last weekend in the CQ WW SSB contest, 10 meters was open both
> days. I logged HD8R Galapagos Islands, and other stations using 5
> watts and mobile antenna.  Best DX D4F.
> 
> "ZF5T was very loud Sunday afternoon around 2015 UTC on 10 Meters."
> 
> According to a prediction issued by NOAA at 2118 UTC on November 4,
> predicted solar flux is 90 on November 5, 85 on November 6-7, 80 on
> November 8-12, 88 on November 13-14, 89 on November 15, 92 on
> November 16-19, 93 on November 20, 95 on November 21-27, then
> jumping to 103, 102, 100 and 98 on November 28 through December 1,
> 96 on December 2-4, then 92 and 90 on December 5-6, then 88 on
> December 7-11, 89 on December 12 and 92 on December 13-16.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 18, 15, and 8 on November 5-7, 5 on
> November 8-14, then 10 and 8 on November 15-16, 5 on November 17-29,
> 8 on November 30 through December 1, 5 on December 2, then 12, 10
> and 8 on December 3-5, then 5 on December 6-11, and 8 on December
> 12-13.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 5 to December
> 1, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be: 
> quiet on: 18-19, 23, 25 
> quiet to unsettled on: November 9, 12-13, 17, 20, 22, 24 
> quiet to active on: November 5, 10-11, 21, 26-27 
> unsettled to active on: November 6-8, 14, 16, 28 
> Active to disturbed: November (15, 29,) 30, December 1 
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on November (8,) 9-10, (11,) 16-17,
> (29-30), December (1-2,) 3-4.
> 
> "Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."
> 
> A report from Southgate Amateur Radio News:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3bKUUmu
> 
> From N8II:
> 
> "It certainly has been a great past month. DXpeditions have resumed,
> quite a few to Africa and all of them worked on 12 and 10M. C5C, The
> Gambia is also active, and TL7M, Central African Republic heard on
> 12M, 15M, and 20M CW. 7P8RU is a Russian group worked on 30M through
> 10M CW and 17M and 12M SSB. Hearing Russia and Scandinavia on 15M
> has been nearly a daily occurrence. 12M has been open to EU daily
> for about the last 10 days. South America is in daily on 10M with
> best conditions around 1900-2000 UTC. 15M begins opening to EU
> around 1240 UTC.
> 
> "1645 UTC most EU are gone now. 12M signals vary day to day with
> quite a few new countries going into the log such as Kuwait, Israel,
> Norway, Sweden, Finland, Faeroe Islands, Gibraltar, and Guernsey
> many on both SSB and CW. CW countries on 12M now are 103 vs. about
> 80 before September, 15M now 198, and 10M CW countries now 98.
> 
> "There was a major solar storm forecast for the CQWW Phone contest
> October 30-31. When the K index peaked at 5 at 1500 UTC on the 31st,
> we were working loud Europeans from even northern EU. At the start
> of the contest I was on 20M and very strangely SA and Caribbean
> signals were way down with decent conditions to East Asia excluding
> Japan. I heard about 9 Chinese stations in just over the first hour
> putting 3 into the log including S9+20dB B0A from rare zone 23. I
> also heard the Philippines, worked RN0CT in Zone 19, 7Q6M Malawi,
> and D4L Cape Verde in first hour.
> 
> "Saturday morning 15M was opening around 1120Z to EU. There were
> loud signals from all over EU, and Kazakhstan was heard. At 1329Z, I
> switched to 10M and found a few Europeans, first worked were
> Hungary, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland, and very loud E7AA in Bosnia. The
> opening was spotlight type to relatively small areas most in the
> Mediterranean (many from Sicily).  EW5A in Belarus was the only
> northern EU logged at 1414 UTC for Zone 16.
> 
> "Right around 1430 UTC, EU faded out. I worked A73A Qatar on a peak,
> and SA began to come through with signals poor at first with some
> good by 1450 UTC.  Despite strong signals from Paraguay, Chile, and
> Argentina, Brazil was not found loud enough to work until 1725 UTC,
> then there were many through the afternoon until my 2210 UTC sunset.
> I was lucky to catch ZM4T New Zealand and VK4A right around sunset
> for Zones 32 and 30.
> 
> "Sunday, I was not expecting much with the rising K index, but 15M
> sounded pretty normal and I logged my first EU EA1L Spain at 1228
> UTC on 10.
> 
> "It was a struggle to work many stations because of better
> conditions for stations farther NE in NA. I caught 7P8RU in Lesotho
> at 1255 UTC. After a short break the 10M band blew wide open at 1339
> UTC with many calls from western EU, quite a few Dutch and German
> stations. TK5MH called from Corsica and 4U1A called from the Vienna
> International Center. Then gradually northern EU filled finding OH0V
> Aland Islands, and with calls from Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark,
> Estonia, Norway, and lastly Finland in the 1500 UTC hour.
> 
> "The K index was 5 reported at 1500 UTC, very strange to be able to
> work so far north, possibly auroral Es. Most of EU finally faded by
> 1656 UTC, quite an opening, the best of Solar Cycle 25 so far.
> 
> "73, Jeff N8II Shepherdstown, WV FM19cj"
> 
> From Mike May WB8VLC Salem Oregon:
> 
> "During CQ WW SSB last weekend, 10 meters was sounding like nothing
> I have heard in 20 years with some Europe in the morning then the
> typical South America in the afternoon.
> 
> "The evening of Saturday October 30 was the best Asia opening I have
> heard on 10 with 28.3 to 29 MHz filled with JA stations. The most
> interesting were the other Asian DX worked aside from Japan, VR2XAN
> in Hong Kong and DY1T in Philippines who were both in here for
> around 1 hour at 59 plus along with other big signals from Hawaii,
> New Zealand, Australia, Guam, Mariana Islands and even some weak
> China on 10 meters."
> 
> Mike sent a long list of stations with S9 signals on 10 meter SSB,
> including Cape Verde, Guam, Portugal, Madeira, Galapagos and Brazil.
> "Even 10 FM was active!"
> 
> From Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico:
> 
> "10 meters was the surprise band on this weekend's contest. I always
> start on the band and rack up the South Americans, about 26 in an
> hour which is almost three-fold compared to last year. After working
> some on 15 meters at 1200 UTC, for an hour, wow 10 meters was
> teaming with life like 5 years ago! Worked a few Europeans in half
> an hour and went and go during the day, including an FR about 1433
> UTC.
> 
> "It was not until Sunday morning that 10 got interesting, when I did
> work early E7AA (who worked only on 10 and my only Bosnia QSO). Then
> ZD7, 7P, OH0, 7Q, EA9, pretty easy with just low power. At 1930 UTC
> turned my antenna (manually) towards USA and called on 28.392 MHz:
> 56 stations in an hour, 98% US.
> 
> "Can't wait for the ARRL 10 Meter Contest 2021!"
> 
> From Simon, GW0NVN:
> 
> "Here at Finningley Amateur Radio Society G0GHK, we were shown what
> the Sun can do on Sunday 31st October. Switched to 10m during
> breakfast to hear a number of strong stations including VK6 having a
> rag chew and working a few European stations. Coming back to 10m in
> the afternoon, we had an over 1.5 hour pile up of W and VE
> stations."
> 
> An exciting update from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.
> 
> https://youtu.be/xOKCsuqcYvo
> 
> This weekend is ARRL CW Sweepstakes Contest.
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> please email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for October 28 through November 3, 2021 were 96, 82,
> 76, 83, 53, 42, and 41, with a mean of 67.6. 10.7 cm flux was 111.7,
> 108.4, 107.2, 102.7, 97.7, 97, and 89, with a mean of 102. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 3, 3, 10, 20, 10, 17, and 21, with a mean
> of 12. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 8, 16, 8, 12, and 14, with
> a mean of 9.
> NNNN
> /EX