[SFDXA] ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA

Bill bmarx at bellsouth.net
Fri May 21 16:50:11 EDT 2021


> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP021
> ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP21
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 21  ARLP021
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  May 21, 2021
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP021
> ARLP021 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Sunspot activity continues this week, although the average daily
> sunspot numbers and solar flux have not really changed since last
> week's report. This was not expected, because on the first day of
> the reporting week in last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin
> ARLP020 there was no sunspot activity.
> 
> Average daily sunspot number hardly changed, from 21.1 to 20.3, and
> average daily solar flux went from 74.3 to 74.2. I am surprised that
> solar flux still remains below 80, since April 20.
> 
> Geomagnetic indicators were quiet, but values were slightly lower.
> 
> Average daily planetary A index changed from 9.1 to 6.6, and average
> daily middle latitude A index went from 7.4 to 6.3.
> 
> Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 72 on May 21-27, 73 on
> May 28, 75 on May 29-31, 77 on June 1, 78 on June 2-12, then 73, 77
> and 77 on June 13-15, and 75 on June 16-27.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on May 21-22, 5 on May 23
> through June 10, then 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 11-14, then 5, 10 and 8
> on June 15-17, and 5 on June 18-30 and beyond.
> 
> Yesterday on Thursday planetary A index rose dramatically due to
> increasing solar wind. The STEREO web site at
> https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ has been a good indicator of
> approaching sunspot activity about to rotate over the Sun's eastern
> horizon, and currently on early Friday I can see a bright active
> region about to become geo-effective.
> 
> OK1HH sends his geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 21
> to June 15, 2021.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> quiet on: May 25-26, (27-31,) June 9-10, 12-13
> quiet to unsettled on: May 24, June 1-8
> quiet to active on: May (21-23, June 11, 14)
> unsettled to active: (June 15)
> active to disturbed: none
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on: May (21-25,) 28-30, June (7,) 9,
> (14-15).
> 
> "Remarks:
> - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
> - Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the
>  forecast."
> 
> WB6VRN spotted a new location for the NOAA solar cycle progression
> page, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression and
> notes the site is interactive.
> 
> K1HTV reported, "On 17 meters during the late afternoon on May 18,
> 2021, I completed WAC (Worked All Continents), using the FT8 mode,
> in 11 minutes. Around 3:15 AM EDT the next morning, after awaking
> from a restless sleep and while still horizontally polarized, I
> turned on my Android phone. I connected to my shack computer and its
> 3 video monitors using the VNC app.
> 
> "At that early hour (0715 UTC) here at my VA QTH, I found 17 Meters
> was already open to Europe. I switched down to 30 Meter FT8 and
> proceeded to work some DX. To my amazement, I was able to make FT8
> contacts with all continents to complete WAC (Worked All Continents)
> in 6 minutes even! Below is the K1HTV log for those contacts, which
> may be a world record for WAC in the shortest time, at least for the
> FT8 mode.
> 
> "30M FT8 WAC (Worked All Continents in 6:00 minutes
> 
> "OC - VK4PN - 2021-0519 07:25:00 started 1st QSO
> EU - F2YT  - 2021-0519 07:26:30 send 73 to end 2nd QSO
> AF - EA8AT - 2021-0519 07:27:45 sent 73 to end 3rd QSO
> AS - JH1CCN - 2021-0519 07:28:30 sent 73 to end 4th QSO
> NA - CO8LY - 2021-0519 07:29:30 sent 73 to end 5th QSO
> SA - CE3ALY - 2021-0919 07:31:00 sent 73 to end 6th QSO and complete WAC
> 
> "All QSOs were made while running 75 Watts to the 30M trap dipole of
> an A3WS antenna."
> 
> N4SO reports:
> 
> "I often listen to 28 MHz propagation beacons starting with VE3TEN
> on 28.175 MHz, http://www.oarc.net/photos/ve3ten/ve3ten.html ending
> at 28.300 MHz. I also have about ten 28 MHz beacons in the log from
> 0000-0100 UTC.
> 
> "From the HF Beacon Reflector and WJ5O for May 20 Evening 'GREYLINE'
> my location.
> 
> "From 00:25-00:30Z, 20 May 2021 I can hear/identify ten 10-meter
> beacon signals into EM71as.
> 
> "28.2025  KA3BWP     STAFFORD, VIRGINIA             1074 km 667 miles
> 28.208   WN2A/AK2F  BUDD LAKE , NEW JERSEY         1424 km 885 miles
> 28.216   K3FX       NEPTUNE CITY, NEW JERSEY       1424 km 885 miles
> 28.2313  N3TVV      JIM THORPE, PENNSYLVANIA       1364 km 848 miles
> 28.2327  N2MH       WEST ORANGE, NEW JERSEY        1449 km 869 miles
> 28.236   W8YT       MARTINSBURG, WEST VIRGINIA     1112 km 691 miles
> 28.246   KG2GL      NUTLEY, NEW JERSEY             1144 km 715 miles
> 28.269   AA1TT      CLAREMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE       1763 km 1095 miles
> 28.2865  WB0BIN     SABIN, MINNESOTA               1900 km 1181 miles
> 28.296   W3APL      LAUREL, MARYLAND               1172 km 733 miles
> 
> "73 Bill WJ5O.
> 
> "Ken N4SO, EM50
> Southern Alabama"
> 
> Jeff Hartley, N8II reported on Thursday:
> 
> "Hi Tad,
> 
> "The sporadic-E season has gotten off to a great start. Just in the
> past 2 days, there were 3 sporadic-E 28 MHz openings into Europe! On
> the 18th, I saw a spot for F4DSD in France on 10M SSB. We worked,
> but just barely; after a struggle to copy my call, he gave me a 3x3
> report at 2016 UTC. Hearing nothing else, I QSY'ed down to 15M CW
> and worked GW3TMP in Wales and EA8TL in Canary Islands. Then I
> managed to catch Hugh, EI2HI in Ireland and we exchanged 4x2
> reports.
> 
> "The morning of the 19th featured a fairly widespread but weak
> opening to EU on 10M.
> 
> "My first EU QSO was at 1410 UTC with ON7HJA in Belgium on SSB. Then
> I heard Gyuri, HA5JI in Hungary who was the loudest of the opening,
> S7 when we worked, then later near the end at 1433 UTC S5. Also
> worked F8DGY and Germany on CW. I finally got back to the radio at
> 2015 UTC and quickly found DK7LX in Germany on 10M CW who was S7. As
> we finished, Ron SP8ARY was calling me; we moved up and made a QSO;
> he was my first 10M Polish QSO in my log started January 2017.
> 
> "Next I called a CW CQ once and was rewarded with a string of EU
> callers from Germany, England, Czech Rep., Serbia, France, OZ4VW,
> first Danish op in my 10M log (new band slot), Netherlands and 2
> more Poles including SQ1921PS. many were rather weak.
> 
> "I then switched to SSB to find stronger signals as the opening
> improved.  Ady, G6AD in England was S6 and Karel, ON2KP was S8.
> 3Z1921PS, Poland was a new SSB band slot as was 5P1B, Denmark 6
> minutes later.  Of course, I found Ian, MM0TFU in Scotland about S7
> who always seems to be there when 10M opens to NA. Calling CQ on
> SSB, I worked a long string of EU stations with few if any CQs
> needed to log the next station.
> 
> "The majority were in western EU, only one weak Italian. Additional
> SSB countries logged were France, Netherlands, Northern Ireland,
> Germany, and Austria. I made many QSOs with England. After 2128Z, I
> searched out stations and found Nick, LZ3ND in Bulgaria who was
> peaking over S9, no wonder with his 4 stacked 7 element Yagis! Also
> worked LZ5DD. PI4DX also with stacked 6 element Yagis was S9.
> 
> "My last SSB QSO before dinner at 2158 UTC was S52WW, Slovenia for a
> new band slot. Returning at 2238 UTC, I found Tom, 9A2AJ, Croatia on
> CW (new slot), OA4DX, Peru on 12M CW for new slot, and Gordon,
> MM0GPZ who was S7-8 on 10M SSB, S7 on 12M (my antenna only 2 el
> Yagi), and a solid S9 on 15M. Despite the great conditions on 15M,
> there was very little SSB or CW activity. My last 10M QSO was
> EI7HBB, Ireland on SSB at 2318 UTC, a very long opening. I made in
> total 64 10M QSOs with Europe.
> 
> "73, Jeff N8II"
> 
> Wow, Jeff!
> 
> Russ W4NI reports from Nashville:
> 
> "The solar storm on 12 May 2021 was not too bad. Despite K=7 at both
> 1200 and 1500 UTC, I was able to work DK, EA, LZ, 9A, on 20 CW from
> Tennessee."
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> please email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
> an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for May 13 through 19, 2021 were 24, 24, 24, 11, 11,
> 24 and 24, with a mean of 20.3. 10.7 cm flux was 74.7, 70.9, 73.3,
> 73.2, 74.8, 76.4, and 75.9, with a mean of 74.2. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 7, 4, 8, 5, 6, 10, and 6, with a mean of 6.6. Middle
> latitude A index was 7, 4, 8, 4, 6, 10, and 5, with a mean of 6.3.
> NNNN
> /EX



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