[SFDXA] ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA

Fri May 14 20:53:17 EDT 2021

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
> ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP20
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20  ARLP020
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  May 14, 2021
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP020
> ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Sunspot activity returned last Friday, and has held steady since.
> Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 11.9 to 21.1, and average
> daily solar flux was up 2.1 points to 74.3 for the reporting week
> ending May 12.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity was quiet until Wednesday when the planetary A
> index went to 41, as the result of a CME that blasted out of the Sun
> on May 9. It was not expected to be very strong, but when it struck
> on May 12 it sparked a G3 class geomagnetic storm, the strongest in
> the current solar cycle.
> 
> The planetary A index rose to 41, far above an average of 3.8 on the
> previous six days. The average daily planetary A index for the week
> (May 6-12) was 9.1 and average middle-latitude A index was 7.4.
> 
> Predicted solar flux over the next month is 75 on May 14-19, 70 on
> May 20-21, then 72, 80, and 79 on May 22-24, then 78, 77 and 73 on
> May 25-27, 72 on May 28-30, 70 on May 31 and June 1, 71 and 75 on
> June 2-3, 76 on June 4-5, 74 on June 6-7, 75 on June 8-9, 77 on June
> 10, and 79 on June 11-13.
> 
> Note in the 45-day forecast that solar flux of 84 predicted for June
> 15 seems to be an outlier:
> 
> ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/051345DF.txt
> 
> Odd that predicted solar flux would shift from 78 to 84 to 77. But
> we saw a similar prediction recently for that same value a week into
> the future, but any trace of it here seems to have disappeared down
> the memory hole:
> 
> ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/
> 
> There seems to be some problem accessing FTP (File Transfer
> Protocol) lately on some web browsers. It gradually disappeared from
> Microsoft Edge, then Firefox, then Chrome. I discovered that
> although I keep the Windows OS updated, the old Internet Explorer
> still exists on my PC, and it does not block FTP.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 14-16, then 15, 12, 8, 5 and
> 8 on May 17-21, 5 on May 22 through June 5, then 8, 5 and 8 on June
> 6-8, then 8, 5, 12, 18, and 15 and on June 9-13.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 14 to June 8, 2021
> from F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interested Group,
> compiling this geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January
> 1978.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be:
> quiet on: May 19, 25-26, (27-31)
> quiet to unsettled on: May 21, 24, 31, June 1-8
> quiet to active on: May (14-16, 18, 20-23)
> unsettled to active: May (17)
> active to disturbed: none
> 
> "Solar wind will intensify on: May (16,) 17-18, (21-25,) 28-30."
> 
> "Remarks:
> - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
> - Contradictory indications significantly reduce the accuracy of the
>  forecast."
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK EM28 Kansas wrote: "6m Es to W6 May 14 to Silicon
> Valley. Worked AH0U and N5KO both CM97. They are in the sporadic-E
> 'doughnut' between single and double hop Es."
> 
> Ken Brown, N4SO checks this graph of the EISN each day and "compares
> it with propagation on 30 and 17 meters. Of interest are stations in
> China, Japan, Korea, and Asiatic Russia propagated at 6000 miles
> plus."
> 
> http://www.sidc.be/silso/eisnplot
> 
> The estimated international sunspot number (EISN) is a daily value
> obtained by a simple average over available sunspot counts from 85
> worldwide observers in the SILSO network.
> 
> Also see:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3tNY1kh
> 
> Ken also reported:
> 
> "W1AW Schedule on CW, 18.0975 MHz,  7 PM Code Bulletin, May 11, W1AW
> signals are 40 dB over S9, so I called CQ QRP.
> 
> "Power set to all the way down on the Elecraft K2. Low setting reads
> .1 and W1 power meter reads the lowest power at 100 mW. 0049 UTC
> QRPp 18.076 MHz 100 mW.
> 
> "W3UA  N4SO/QRP   18076.1 CW CQ  16 dB  22 wpm  0048z 11 May 
> KM3T  N4SO/QRP   18076.0 CW CQ  4 dB   22 wpm  0047z 11 May
> 
> "and at 0126 UTC K7QO 18.077 MHz  3 watts QRP.
> 
> "May 11, FT8 mode, 10.136 MHz.
> 
> "Long string of Japanese worked starting with a CQ from JA6VZ at
> 0745 UTC.
> 
> "Stations worked/confirmed at 0931 UTC with JE1VTZ and extends to
> 1114 UTC with JA2KVD, and JM1FHL with over 26 worked.
> 
> "Strongest stations were JE0ART at -3 dB and JA1IOA at +5 dB.  Both
> of these are very strong and rare for a roughly 7000 mile path.
> 
> "Several times (1011 UTC and 1028 UTC) the Band Activity was listing
> a complete string of Japanese call signs busy with a contact or
> calling CQ. My activity screen will list about 24 call signs.
> 
> "The Reverse Beacon Network.
> 
> "At the same time period I checked RBN 10 meters and found this for
> the very early time of 1043 UTC.
> 
> "KC0VKN  K4SE  28038.2 CW CQ  1 dB   7 wpm  1043z 11 May
> 
> "Locations are Tennessee (K4SE) and Oxford, Iowa. (KC0VKN)"
> 
> Thanks to the the ARRL Contest Update for the following:
> 
> Check this link for a reference on sporadic-E propagation:
> 
> https://bit.ly/3y7HZoU
> 
> See http://www.arrl.org/the-arrl-contest-update
> 
> Then check this for an interesting sporadic-E real time online tool:
> 
> http://www.propquest.co.uk/map.php
> 
> Two recent reports from the Space Weather Woman, Dr. Tamitha Skov,
> WX6SWW:
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjiAIMDXEFk
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTSG2Jqzntw
> 
> If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
> please email the author at, k7ra at arrl.net .
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
> an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for May 6 through 12, 2021 were 0, 15, 17, 18, 36,
> 31 and 31, with a mean of 21.1. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 74.5, 71.6,
> 75.9, 76.5, 76.1, and 74.7, with a mean of 74.3. Estimated planetary
> A indices were 4, 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, and 41, with a mean of 9.1. Middle
> latitude A index was 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 4, and 25, with a mean of 7.4.
> NNNN
> /EX