[SFDXA] ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA

[Bill]

> SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP027
> ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> ZCZC AP27
> QST de W1AW  
> Propagation Forecast Bulletin 27  ARLP027
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
> Seattle, WA  July 2, 2021
> To all radio amateurs 
> 
> SB PROP ARL ARLP027
> ARLP027 Propagation de K7RA
> 
> Solar activity is strong! Average daily sunspot number rose from 14
> to 34.7, and average daily solar flux increased from 79.3 to 86.9.
> Both figures represent a dramatic increase in solar activity.  These
> averages are for the recent seven day period, Thursday through
> Wednesday, and the sunspot number on Thursday was 56, which is above
> the average of 34.7, always a good sign.
> 
> Planetary A index went from 5.3 to 6.1, while average daily middle
> latitude A index was at 6.1, the same as last week.
> 
> Predicted solar flux is 94 on July 2 to 6, 90 on July 7 and 8, 85 on
> July 9 to 11, 82 on July 12 to 14, 80 on July 15 to 18, 82 on July
> 19, 85 on July 20 to 24, 88 on July 25, 90 on July 26 to 28, 92 on
> July 29 through August 1, 90 on August 2, and 85 on August 3 to 7.
> 
> Predicted planetary A index is 8, 12, 8, 10 and 8 on July 2 to 6, 5
> on July 7 and 8, 8 on July 9 and 10, then 5, 15 and 12 on July 11 to
> 13, 5 on July 14 to 20, 8 on July 21, 5 on July 22 to 26, 10 on July
> 27, 5 on July 28 to 30, 12 on July 31, 5 on August 1 to 4, then 8 on
> August 5 and 6, and 5, 15 and 12 on August 7 to 9.
> 
> Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period July 2 to 29, 2021 from
> F. K. Janda, OK1HH.
> 
> "Geomagnetic field will be
> Quiet on: July 16 and 17, 24 and 25
> Quiet to unsettled on: July 2 and 3, 6 and 7, 9 to 11, 18, 23, 29
> Quiet to active on: July 4 and 5, 12, 14 and 15, (19 to 22,) 26
> Qnsettled to active: July (8,) 13, 27 and 28
> Active to disturbed: nothing forecast
> 
> Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."
> 
> Jon Jones, N0JK reports from Kansas EM28:
> 
> "A sporadic-E opening to Europe on 50 MHz on July 1 to the Heartland
> (Midwest USA) the afternoon of July 1.
> 
> I decoded many Europeans. F6EXV in with a good signal. But difficult
> getting takers.  Finally worked G4PLZ at 1933z. He was my only PSK
> flag in Europe.
> 
> Even area ops who run KW and big Yagis were having trouble raising
> Europe, but saw one work F6EXV and I think EI4DQ. K0TPP EM48 to the
> east having better luck with Europe.
> 
> Here in northeast Kansas decoded EA, EI, F, G, and PA2M. EI3KD,
> EI4DQ had good signals."
> 
> K4ZOT reported on June 28 from EM73 near Atlanta: 
> 
> "I thought you might be interested in this 6M DX which totally caught
> me by surprise today.
> 
> I have been a 6M enthusiast since I received my license in 1964 when
> I operated a Layette HA-460 6M 10W transceiver. In all this time I
> have never worked or heard an African 6M station. I have worked JA
> several times on 6M and other Pacific locations, but never Africa.
> Much to my total surprise today, June 28, at 1926 UTC, 5T5PA
> (Mauritania) suddenly popped on the FT8 JTALert 'Callsigns' screen
> with an audio alert of new DX. Again, to my utter amazement I worked
> him on the first call, a distance of 4241 miles. Not the longest 6M
> DX by far, but surprising from Africa at least from this location. 
> 
> I believe he worked one or two other stations and then he was gone.
> Perhaps only on for 2-3 minutes. A wonderful 6M DX from my station
> using a 5 element Yagi at only 32 feet.
> 
> 6M is indeed the 'Magic Band' as it has been for me for 55 years of
> operation.  Best of all - Johannes confirmed the contact in LOTW
> just a few minutes after we made contact. Thank you Johannes - a
> true Ham in the best spirit of the hobby."
> 
> KA3JAW reported:
> 
> "On Thursday, July 1, 2021 at 10:15 am EDT, FM-DXer Bryce Foster in
> Mashpee, Massachusetts received 87.7 RTP Antena-3 Pico da Barrosa,
> Azores via 2x-Es. Station running 30 kW by vertical polarization.
> Distance 2379 air miles. Reception lasted up to 35 minutes with
> audio identification along with a stream match. This is the first
> time I heard of a US to Azores link on the FM broadcast band.
> 
> W9NY reported on June 28:
> 
> "The propagation on 20 meters between my Dune Acres, Indiana station
> and much of Europe and Asiatic Russia beginning last night (6/27/21)
> at 11 pm and continuing for about 2 hours was absolutely amazing. It
> reminded me of 10 meters at the peak of prior sunspot cycles.
> 
> Around 14.208 I called CQ and worked one station after another, from
> Finland in the North to Corsica and Greece in the South and all
> across Russia to several points in Siberia. Many of the signal
> reports given and received were 20 to 30 DB over S9. A couple
> nearly pinned the needle on my Icom 7610. In fact, I worked many
> stations running 100 watts to simple antennas like a dipole or
> vertical that were coming in over S9 and a few stations that were
> QRP but still producing S5 to S7 signals. I have not heard an
> opening like that in many years and it was certainly a lot of fun. I
> probably should have turned on my QRP rig but I never got around to
> it!
> 
> Perhaps a harbinger of things to come!
> 
> I did check out 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6, which were all quiet.
> 
> And today there was a fair amount of activity on 10 meters and 6
> meters."
> 
> Frank, W3LPL wrote:
> 
> "Propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to
> be mostly normal through Sunday. There is a slight possibility that
> isolated below normal intervals may briefly degrade propagation
> through the auroral ovals and polar regions from midday Saturday
> through early Sunday.
> 
> We are in the quiet geomagnetic activity season, only about half as
> many geomagnetically disturbed days occur in June and July compared
> to the more geomagnetically active equinox seasons.
> 
> Sporadic-E propagation occurs every day during June and July at
> mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere making long distance
> propagation up to 15,000 km sporadically available in the 17, 15,
> 12, 10 and 6 meter bands from sunrise through midnight and
> occasionally somewhat later.
> 
> The solar flux is likely to be at least 94 through Sunday. Solar
> active region 2835 has grown to 770 micro-hemispheres (2.3 billion
> square kilometers, four times the surface area of the Earth), almost
> as large as the active region that significantly improved HF
> propagation during late November 2020. Region 2835 is significantly
> improving HF propagation on 30 and 20 meters during late afternoon,
> nighttime and early morning hours and 17 and 15 meter propagation
> during the day through early evening. Active regions 2836 and 2837
> are slowly and quietly decaying and are having no effect on HF
> propagation.
> 
> https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_0171.jpg
> 
> 160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
> South Pacific is likely to be seasonably normal through Sunday.
> 
> 40 meter short path propagation to south Asia is likely to be mostly
> normal at about 0015 UTC through Sunday. 40 meter short path
> propagation from North America to east Asia after about 0930 UTC is
> likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated
> below normal intervals on Saturday.
> 
> 30 meter propagation through the auroral ovals and polar regions is
> likely to be mostly normal with a slight possibility of isolated
> below normal intervals late Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always
> significantly degraded within a few hours of local noon because of
> E-region blanketing of long distance F2 propagation.
> 
> 30 meter night time long distance propagation in the northern
> hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar
> radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by increased
> sunspot activity, higher solar elevation angles and much shorter
> nights with no source of ionizing solar radiation.
> 
> 20 meter daytime and evening propagation through the auroral ovals
> and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight
> possibility of isolated below normal intervals late Saturday.
> 
> 20 meter northern transpolar propagation within a few hours of
> sunrise and sunset is improving with increased solar ionizing
> radiation on the northern polar region caused by increased sunspot
> activity and high solar elevation angles 24 hours per day during the
> midnight sun season. 20 meter long distance propagation is
> significantly degraded from mid-morning through late afternoon at
> low and mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere by F1 region midday
> blanketing of low angle propagation during the summer.
> 
> 20 meter late afternoon, nighttime and early morning long distance
> propagation in the northern hemisphere is likely to improve due to
> increased ionizing solar radiation in the northern high latitude
> regions caused by increasing sunspot activity, higher solar
> elevation angles and much shorter nights with no source of ionizing
> solar radiation.
> 
> 17 and 15 meter daytime long distance propagation in the northern
> hemisphere is likely to improve due to increased ionizing solar
> radiation in the northern high latitude regions caused by increasing
> sunspot activity, high solar elevation angles and long days.
> 
> 17, 15, 12, 10 and 6 meter sporadic-E propagation up to 15,000 km is
> likely to be sporadically available from sunrise through midnight
> and occasionally later through late July.
> 
> Geomagnetic disturbances caused by coronal hole high speed stream
> effects are likely to remain mostly brief, minor and somewhat less
> frequent through at least late 2021. The southward oriented (-Bz)
> component of the IMF plays a crucial but unpredictable role in
> triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
> geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists
> in a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength
> for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed
> coronal hole high speed stream.
> 
> More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms
> may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in
> a southward orientation (-Bz) with enhanced IMF field strength for
> several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth
> directed fast CME.
> 
> There is a slight possibility that Earth-directed effects of a weak
> CME and continuing weak coronal hole high speed stream effects may
> slightly to moderately enhance IMF field strength, solar wind speed
> near Earth and geomagnetic activity. If the weak CME is
> geo-effective it may slightly degrade HF propagation through the
> auroral ovals from midday Saturday through early Sunday. Geomagnetic
> storms are not likely through Sunday. There is a slight possibility
> of an M-class solar flare from Friday through Sunday, but its
> possible HF propagation effects are likely to be brief and minor.
> 
> Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunset is now 77 minutes later and
> daylength is 163 minutes longer than it was on the March 20th.
> Daylength and solar elevation angle in the northern polar region are
> slowly declining through mid-July due to gradually waning summer
> solstice effects."
> 
> For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
> http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
> Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
> explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
> http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
> 
> An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
> http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
> information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
> 
> Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
> bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .
> 
> Sunspot numbers for June 24 through 30, 2021 were 11, 25, 16, 32,
> 50, 56, and 53, with a mean of 34.7. 10.7 cm flux was 80.6, 83.4,
> 82.4, 87, 88.6, 92.5, and 94.1, with a mean of 86.9.. Estimated
> planetary A indices were 5, 7, 4, 4, 4, 5, and 14, with a mean of
> 6.1. Middle latitude A index was 6, 8, 5, 4, 4, 5, and 11, with a
> mean of 6.1.
> NNNN
> /EX